Guest post by Joe Bastardi
The Way it Is: Back to the 50s.
In 2006 , I loudly proclaimed on national outlets that we were going back to the 1950s as far as the climate pattern went and that the patterns of the 50s which opened the east coast up for hurricanes, as well as hot, droughty look, for the southern US would take over. The reason was simple, we were in a cycle roughly like the period when the PDO and AMO warmed and a flip to the cold PDO was on the way. So its not brain surgery to then go to the maps of the summer of the 1950s with heat and drought,
and then the remarkable slamming of the east coast in the 1950s
So in 2006 I made the statement that by 2015 2 major hurricanes should hit the northeast, which I thought was conservative given the physical reality of what the warm AMO and Cold PDO produce as far as the pattern around N America. Even this year, with the low ACE I have for the classic breeding grounds, I think there is reason to be very concerned along the east coast yet again, from in close developments such as we saw with Bob ( 1991) Belle ( 1976) or Carol (1954). I was taken aback at charges of “hype” given I merely identified what should be an obvious elephant in the room. But what is most remarkable is that they have not come. Even Irene, though a formidable storm and pressure wise, as strong as they come, fell apart compared to the sisters of 1954 and Donna of 1960. See that map above. Consider what happened in the Carolinas, and that does not even show Diane in 1955 which came right after Connie.
So imagine how completely flabbergasted I am when I hear nonsense about co2 and causing global warming and Irene is a product of that, , when in a 2 year stretch, 1954-1955 6 hurricanes, affected N Carolinas with at least hurricane conditions and 8 in a 7 year stretch from 1954-1960. And cat 2 or greater in New England with a sideswipe to the west from the great Hazel in 1954, and then Donna in 1960, a storm that gave hurricane force winds to every state on the east coast.
So climate clowns, be forewarned. We have your number. What you should be asking ( and I am) is why we haven’t been hit, not blaming co2
You know, I thought when I got on some national outlets and laid out a forecast for a pattern like the 1950s, it would serve as a warning to these clowns not to play the co2 card. Seriously, you have to be pretty ignorant to blame a drought that was being forecasted because of a large scale pattern change by people years before ( not just me), on co2 after the drought sets in. But I find they either don’t know, don’t understand, or could care less about this matter. There is a physical reason for why this happens , why the US warms at first when the pacific cools and the atlantic is still warm When the PDO flips, the cooling of the tropical pacific and the waters that ring the warm core lead to a stronger jet that aims itself toward the northwest part of the US. South of the mean jet, large scale sinking takes place, hence the drier, In addition, the colder pacific means less water content in air masses south of 40 north that come into the US, unlike when the tropical pacific is warm. It shows why
Pres Obamas proclamation that the Texas drought was because of global warming was sheer ignorance. During the warming PDO, texas had above normal precip as global temps responded to the warming of the Pacific, the opposite happens when the Pacific, and global temps cool
Look at 1980 to 2000 temps.. warming globally during the warm PDO
Look at US, Texas precip opposite of what happened in the 50s when the PDO flipped to cold and cooling began
So the warming pattern in the Pacific and then corresponding response in global temps is a WET PATTERN, opposite of what was being hoisted on the American public, like now, and the media sheep swallow and follow.
When its dry, its hotter in much of the US, which climate clowns don’t seem to understand is CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR THAN THE NORTH POLE. In the meantime, the overall global temps start to cool, but until the AMO cools, atlantic basin then becomes a key source of warmth to the pattern. Now I want the climate clowns out there to think.. what happens when you have a warm ocean naturally to your east ( warm AMO) and you are warming the southern part of the US.. where should you look for enhanced hurricane activity relative to normal, based on the overall signal of a colder pdo and warmer amo? Its not that hard, you can do it, just look.. Should be relatively close to land right.. the intersection of where the pdo induced southern US warming and the amo warming is taking place. Sure its simplified, but you don’t see many hurricanes off the west coast do you ( don’t see any, really, why, the water is cold and the air is cool
So since you simply ignored the facts when it comes to warmer weather and drought, ESPECIALLY RIGHT AFTER THE PDO FLIP, THE EARLY TO MID 50S, AS WE ARE IN NOW, You will not be able to blame any major east coast hurricanes the next 5-10 years, or for that matter anytime, on the fraud of AGW. In fact you should be expecting them to happen simply because of the pattern. The history you choose to ignore says so, though that never has stopped you before.
So now, if we see these comments based on what has to be ignorance of the past and the physical realities of how the atmosphere reacts when basic climate cycle patterns take over, we have a reference point for them to go to. Its not rocket science and yes to some extent it does diminish the importance perhaps of the forecaster and the climate scientist , and maybe that is why they are so threatened and wish to ramp up what is going on. But CO2 is not responsible for what you see going on, as it is right in line with basic climate cycle theory.
So to the climate clowns trying to use these events, I want you to explain how this can possibly be so similar
Here is the summer of 1951, the first “el nino summer after the pdo flip from warm to cold
Here is the summer of 2009, the first el nino summer after the latest pdo flip from warm to cold
Now watch the following 3 summers in the 1950s
Look at 2010, 2011 and then given what has happened so far , use reasoning to come up with the three will look like after this year
let me help, the core of the warmth this year is such that it will add more to the northwest and probably cut down in the southeast making these almost perfect matches
Now how any rational human being, yet alone a phd in anything, can not see how close this link is with the climate cycle is either because they have not looked, or they are simply lying trying to push their agenda. What else can it be. You cant get a closer match. In fact I cant even believe how close this is. Its amazing. But guess what, we have similar cycles of the Pacific and atlantic, but co2 is not a constant!
So when hurricanes come, lets be ready. They are a part of the pattern that we are in, and the data and physical reasoning show it.