Joe Bastardi Puts The Heatwave In Perspective

Guest Post By Joe Bastardi

—————————————————————————————

Any of the Climate Clown Media sheep stop to think about this

The map below shows the Alaska imprinted on the US, in the area where the heat wave is worst, and then the July temps in North America  showing that the Alaskan cold is at least holding its own, and arguably outdueling the  US warmth.  This is much like the pattern in the  1950s..

The question is will the Media swallow and follow sheep ever wake up and do a lick of digging into this, or keep marching along  like drones to a drumbeat of mindless drivel.  How not one of the mainstream climate writers that buy into AGW don’t stop and look at the loads of information that should  make them question this shows  mindless blindness.

Heh I like that  mindless blindness. Has a  nice ring to it

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29 Responses to Joe Bastardi Puts The Heatwave In Perspective

  1. dmmcmah says:

    The media are no longer “journalists”, you can see this at the NY Times where endless puff pieces about climate change are written – not once are any of the claims or data of the climate alarmists questioned or investigated. I sent David Leonhardt a note about this yesterday advising him to actually look at the data himself after he wrote a puff piece about still time to “save” the planet.

  2. johnmcguire says:

    For the story tellers of the msm to admit they were wrong would damage their inflated egos . They would have to admit that a bunch of wackjob ,less than third rate hacks have fooled them badly. So now they are just liars as they can see the truth laid out for them by the so called “deniers” and there is no escaping the truth.

  3. John Wood says:

    http://www.informationliberation.com/?id=28191 This explains the entire man made global warming hoax…..scientist’s with impressive credentials explain……C02 does not raise temp. Just the opposite….when the temperature goes up, C02 follows a couple hundred years later.

    The sun causes the earth’s temp to rise…solar activity.

    Joe….wish you would comment on this documentary…..

  4. Spence says:

    Great post Joe!! That’s the question: why in the heck does every heat wave & broken record get so much attention vs. any below normal or record low temps or record low-high temps from the media? And let’s not forget the droves of articles & news reports that somehow trace every weather event regardless of it’s nature to AGW. Only a genuine idiot can know climate history & see current climate data & not conclude that it’s either in ignorance or intentional. There is no other option. That doesn’t sound very nice but I struggle to find better words while remaining truthful.:)

  5. Eric Webb says:

    Thanks as always Joe, you really doing us quite a service by using common sense and real facts to refute these “climate clowns” claims. Look forward to listening to you on Wise Guys of Weather!

  6. DK says:

    Why is there no color bar in the above plot? It’s impossible to compare different regions without a color bar. When I go to the ESRL composites page and calculate the July 1-20 NCEP-NCAR temperature anomalies over North America, it’s clear that the North American warmth is out-dueling the Alaskan cold. This post is very misleading, especially for someone who keeps telling us to look at all the facts.

    • What part of “the coldest summer in Alaska history” is it that you are having a difficult time comprehending?

      • gsx1990 says:

        TOTAL BS! Why don’t you post a legend on the map? The grey area is the area of above normal, not just the yellows and oranges. Grand Forks is +7F for the month. McGrath AK is -4.8F. Seems like the thresholds for blue are alot lower than the orange….creative use of colors…..and total BS. PUT A LEGEND on this so people can compare what you show to what is actually happening!

  7. alf says:

    “The current U.S. drought is a disaster, but it is actually a much-delayed event. Historically the central plain of
    North America has experienced a severe drought in about one year out of seven. Sometimes drought years have been
    back-to-back (the 1930s) or closely spaced (1986 and 1988). However the last bad dro ught year was 1993. According
    to the historical pattern, if indeed there is one, there should have been at lest two droughty yea rs in the last 19. Instead
    there was an almost unprecedented stretch of reasonable growing seasons, one or two of flooding and e xcess rain and
    one or two that were exceptionally favorable. In most recent years when yields dropped below a trend line it was not
    because of a lack of rain.”
    Here is another perspective from Agri Week which I subscribe to.

    • Eric Webb says:

      The lack of a significant drought for the 19 year period from 1993-2012 can be easily attributed to a warm PDO and AMO combination for most of that time period, which allowed lots of moisture to be carried off the ocean, thus the North American continent is generally wet, but there are other factors which also played a role during that period of time as well, and it has nothing to do with climate change or global warming, where they blame the recent drought on AGW where, clearly the pacific is in it’s cold state, and being that North America is downstream of a colder ocean, that means less moisture, and thus generally less rain.

  8. Don Gaddes says:

    More ENSO bullshit . My records show a “Dry’ Cycle over America from 1996 – 1998 and from 1999 – 2000. Where were you standing Eric?

    • Eric Webb says:

      The 1999-2000 “dry cycle” from your data plays right into my hands, Warm AMO, Warm PDO, BUT the pacific entered an extended period of cooler conditions in response to the 1998 el nino. Stays with the idea that a cool pacific and warm atlantic, like there was in the 1950s, has a tendency to produce drought conditions over North America, most notably over the north central plains and into the rockies, where at the 500 millibar level, the mean area of high pressure has been centered along with troughs near both coasts, just like the pattern in 1954. That year was also had drought and eastern seaboard hurricanes, similar to what we are currently experiencing now. The ENSO index also helped to influence el nino winters in a cold PDO, by allowing them to become more central pacific based, thus leading to very brutal winters over the lower 48, similar to what happened in 2009-10, and even 2002-03 to some extent.

  9. Eric Webb says:

    Don’t know what “records” you’re looking at but, the coverage and extent of this drought is something that has been comparbale to the 1950s, when the ENSO index was relatively the same, warm AMO, cold PDO, even greater than the droughts during the late 90s. This is not because of CO2, but because of a natural ENSO cycle and other notable factors like sunspot cycles cycles, not”Bullshit ENSO cycles”. If this is the case, then explain, why the 1950s were so bad? It is not a coincidence that the we have became dry of recent, as the cold PDO deepens, and the AMO remains warm.

    • It’s hard to figure out what he is talking about when he writes that “ENSO is bullshit” ? He is too vague to interpret. It’s well established through observations that changes in ENSO cause droughts and floods in various parts of the world as well as many other climatic effects. All you had to do was look at the SOI last year and reach the reasonable conclusion that Australia’s north would likely get some very heavy dumps of rain leading to flooding. And that’s exactly what happened. Some of these patterns have been well understood by meteorologists for decades.

      • Eric Webb says:

        Yeah, I had trouble with the “ENSO is BS” statement as well, and I agree that meteorologists understand the large effects from ENSO and SOI on precipitation, but ENSO is not the only driver of these kinds of events, and factors, like sunspot cycles and volcanic activity also play their roles too.

  10. Joseph Bastardi says:

    By the way, the gray area is above normal too, but I am talking about the extreme cold of Alaska vs the extreme heat of central plains, roughly the same. The gray warmth over the land mass is counterbalanced by the large area of cool over the pacific south of Alaska, which then gets us into the cold PDO, which is where my point of all this starts with, the flip of the PDO while the AMO is still warm has produced similar weather ( interestingly enough it appears that both Europe and Alaska are colder in the summer so far, but the test sample is still only a few years) as in the 50s.

    The one piece of the puzzle left… the hurricane ramp up over the coming years near the east coast. I am not wondering if, but when

    • gsx1990 says:

      Creative and misleading use of colors Joe…. East coast hurricane will happen eventually, you have been calling for it every year now for the past who knows how many…..

  11. Eric Webb says:

    I personally have gone out on a limb and told some people I knew that the main hurricane threat for the east coast would be August 15-September 5, using storms like Barbara (1953), Carol(1954), Edna (1954), Irene (2011), Earl (2010), and of course Able (1952). Earl I know was in a la nina year, but was comparable to Able of 1952, both being Cape Verde storms that originated somewhat far north in latitude and came very far west in the atlantic. Barbara and Irene both originated further to the west, and both made landfall in about the exact same spot in NC, and stayed near the east coast. The only differences in these storms were of course, steering patterns, the strength of the storms, and the exact days they affected the east coast varied slightly.

  12. Don Gaddes says:

    ” The lack of significant drought for the 19 year period from1993 to 2012.” Your words Eric! I’m sure there would be more than a few American Farmers who would take issue with that statement.
    Australia in 2011 was under the influence of a ‘Wet’/Normal Period (America 2010/part of 2011.) before the One/solar/Earth Year ‘Dry’ Cycle arrived (from America via New Zealand etc) in early January 2012. America is now under the influence of the subsequent two Solar/Earth Year ‘Wet’/Normal Period, that will arrive in Australia in early January 2013. It is to be noted that these ‘Dry’ Cycle influences are initiated from the longitudes due West of Australia (around 110 degrees East of Prime,) and travel East to West around the Planet. (thirty degrees of longitude/month with the Solar orbit of the Earth’s Magnetic Field.) The prevailing weather patterns move from West to East,( with the Earth’s Axial Spin.) The following HAPPENED;
    1950 – 51 (Wet/Normal) 1952 -1954 (‘Dry’ Cycle) 1955 (Wet/Normal) 1956 -57 (‘Dry’ Cycle)
    1958 (Wet/Normal) 1959 (‘Dry’ Cycle) These are Australian timings, (take five months off for the East Coast of US.)
    It should be noted that explosive volcanic activity around the Globe (albedo) may alleviate ‘Dry’ Cycles and exacerbate Wet/Normal periods.

    Again, to assist ‘universal understanding’ and alleviate ‘vagueness’, I offer an updated version of ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ Alex S. Gaddes (1990) (including ‘Dry’ Cycle forecasts to 2055) available as a free pdf from dongaddes93@gmail.com
    What is a PDO ‘flip’ Joe?

    • Eric Webb says:

      “The lack of SIGNIFICANT drought from 1993 to 2012.” I don’t think you unerstand what that means. This drought is bad, not just localized but very large in coverage, (perhaps a bit overdone by the NCDC) however, I could make the argument that it is the worst drought since the 50s. Your “wet/dry cycles” are easily explained by ENSO, and trying to make a forecast out to 2055 is borderline stupid. I understand what you’re trying to say, but Australia’s recent rains are easily explained by a strongly positive SOI, which in turn led to a double la nina. Australia won’t see any “wet” period until summer 2013, when the current el nino begins to diminish, and the SOI rises back into positive territory, as it should because we are in a cold PDO. La ninas generally mean more rain, el ninos, less for Australia, let’s see how closely relates ENSO is to rainfall in Australia.
      “The following happened: 1950-51 (Wet/Normal) La nina lasted from the start of 1950, and ended in FMA 1951. 1952-54 (‘Dry” Cycle) El nino at the start of 1952, remained warm ENSO neutral for remainder of the year, then el nino took over again in 1953, and lasted to JFM 1954, waters in tropical pacific were warmer than normal for most of that period. 1955 (wet/normal) la nina that began in 1954 continued through the entire year of 1955. 1956-57 (‘Dry’ Cycle) weak la nina in the 2nd half of 1956, transitioned to a strong el nino in 1957. 1958 (wet/normal), el nino weakened to warm neutral, which could explain, the ‘normal’ conditions, but highly doubt it was a ‘wet cycle’ during that period of time. 1959 (‘Dry’ Cycle) weak el nino changed to neutral conditions in MAM and remained at neutral for the rest of the year. Clearly, this just proves, that ENSO has a large influence on precipitation, and your ‘wet/dry cycles” play nicely into the hands of ENSO. The “dry cycle” periods were characterized by el nino, while the “wet cycles” were dominated by la nina. Once again, you’ve only proved that I’m right. Your confidence in these “wet/dry cycles” are comparable to the confidence the AGW crowd has in the CO2, and of course when there is clear evidence that confronts them that BIGGER FORCES are at work, they simply ignore it, as you’ve done time and time again, even when using YOUR OWN DATA which proves the counter-argument to be correct.

      • Eric Webb says:

        I’m not suggesting you are as driven as the AGW side is, I’m saying your ignorance of the effects of ENSO is comparable to AGW crowd’s ignorance of contradictory arguments, which dismantle their theories.

  13. cb says:

    “The media are no longer “journalists”

    Not really correct: the Media no longer EMPLOYS journalists. More specifically, the Media employs smart, self-driven people who will dream-up lies like there is no tomorrow, if that is what it takes to be paid.

    The PROBLEM is the whole pretence that they ARE journalists: i.e. investigative reporters of bare fact. They very specifically ARE corrupt. Surely people like Romm, Mooney, et al, and all their robots in the media, are sufficient to make this point?

    Either that, or they are simultaneously highly intelligent, and as dumb as posts… and if you believe that, then you are an idiot.

    There is a distinction at play here. A rather big one.

  14. Eric Webb says:

    I see Joe thinks the SE United States may have tropical trouble Aug 4-10, I think that may be a little fast given strength of saharan dust, and the strength and location of Bermuda High. I think the threat will be just a little later in August, but idea is the same. Still pretty close to my August 15 -Sep 5 threat timeline. If we get a hurricane on the east coast in AUG or SEP, get ready to hear a whole load of alarmism BS a few days after it happens.

  15. Don Gaddes says:

    How are you claiming my forecasting for the 1950’s as ‘ENSO’ related Eric? ENSO wasn’t even ‘invented’ until the early 1970’s. This is typical of the ENSO crowd’s tactics, simply name every ‘wet’ event La Nina and every ‘dry’ event El Nino, (after the event,) then say it all comes in some unfathomable way from the ‘Tropical Pacific!’ The ‘Dry’ Cycle forecasts as defined by Alex S Gaddes in ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ have NOTHING to do with ‘ENSO,’ (As I think you would find if you actually READ the work!) “This drought is bad.” Which drought are you referring to? America has just entered a a Two Solar/Earth Year ‘Wet’/Normal Period, that will reach Australia in early January 2013. Alex S. Gaddes forecast this in 1976. He also forecast a severe Five Year ‘Dry’ Cycle, reaching Australia 2015. {No doubt you will ‘claim’ these events (in hindsight) for ENSO as well!} You are right about ‘BIGGER FORCES’ at work – but they have NOTHING to do with ‘ENSO’, and you obviously know very little about them!
    At least the AGW charlatans over at John Cook’s site eventually READ the work, before misrepresenting and deriding it!

  16. Eric Webb says:

    Your “forecasts of the 1950s are CLEARLY ENSO RELATED.” Go and look at your dry and wet cycles and compare it to the PDO, AMO, and the ENSO index, then tell me I’m wrong. What kind of world do you live in? What “ENSO crowd” are you talking about? Yeah You mean the one which has be able to accurately prove a correlation for ENSO events and precipitation for decades?”What Drought?” You mean the one which currently covers over half of the united states, and has crippled the corn belt, and parts of the rockies, so much for your “wet cycle”, because this is clearly the worst drought since the 50s, and you seem to have very little knowledge of that time period, and the stark similarities in the ENSO index and AMO, being that the PDO was cold, the AMO was warm, JUST LIKE IT IS NOW. When the pacific is in it’s cold state, naturally the landmass downstream of that, the United States and North America receive less rain than normal, and on the other side of the ocean near Australia, they receive more rain, thanks to more la ninas which have a long history of producing heavy, flooding rains in that area of the globe, which DID HAPPEN the last 2 years, and suddenly this year, they are dry. Hmm.. I wonder why? Oh yeah, because the ENSO index has returned to it’s el nino state, in response to the 2 years of la nina. You continue to ignore the effects ENSO has on precipitation, and I just proved to you how your so called “wet/dry cycles” fit perfectly into the state of the ENSO. You don’t have a leg to stand on. Your predictions for a “dry cycle” in Australia are likely to be wrong because of the fact that the PDO is in it’s cold state, and that means more la ninas, thus higher than normal precipitation for that area of the globe for the next few decades, until the PDO flips to it’s warm state that it was previously in from 1978-2007. It should also come as no surprise that during that era of time, Australia encountered more dry periods than wet because el nino was in place more so than la nina. Your forecasts for a ‘wet cycle” in Australia in January will also crumble to the ground, because history does not support such bouts of higher than normal precipitation over Australia during el ninos. No these forecasts aren’t in ‘hindsight” as you claim they are being predicted well in advance using the history of the ENSO index and it’s effects on precipitation. North America and continents on the eastern side of the pacific will remain in overall state of drier than normal conditions until the PDO flips to it’s warm state, as it naturally does every 25-30 years. Australia will receive higher than normal rainfall amounts and higher probabilities for floods, due to the fact that the PDO will remain in it’s cool state, meaning more la ninas than el ninos, and that means more rain than normal overall, but this year will fall short, due to the developing el nino over the eastern and central pacific equatorial regions. What you also don’t seem to understand is that your “dry/wet cycles” don’t have any predictive value, they are products of factors such as the SOI and ENSO. By the way, I highly doubt comparing me to the climate clown, John Cook is very applicable, and resulting to personal attacks is very childish, and ironically, is like-minded of the pro AGW point of view to which you try and compare me to.

  17. Eric Webb says:

    I also seem to notice you’ve been surfing around the internet trying to dismantle the ENSO theory, you seem more or less like a pitchman of some sort for your “Dry/wet cycle” hypothesis, and it is clear that you have an agenda at work here, not implying that what you are promoting throughout the web is bad, but it is clear you are incompetent and ignorant to the effects of ENSO. SOI, a close relative to ENSO, was discovered in 1923 by Gilbert Walker, who noticed changes in atmospheric pressure, and it’s sway, back and forth across the pacific over spans of time. This clearly shows that the effects of la nina and el nino have been known much longer than the “early 70s” when you claim it was discovered. What you’re trying to allude to is the fact that it’s been only since the 1970s, that claim is false because it was discovered well before that time but the only difference was that they weren’t both studied in detail until the 1970s, so you need to get your facts straight.

  18. Don Gaddes says:

    You left out H.P Berlage Jr and Jacob Bjerknes. (as well as certain Peruvian Fishermen)
    “Berlage Jr. thought (in the early 1920’s) that most inter-annual atmospheric variations could be linked to Solar Cycles For some reason this theory was discounted by his peers.” (Tomorrow’s Weather’ p3.))
    The early 1970’s saw the University of East Anglia ‘rediscover’ El Nino and ‘re-plate’ it as ENSO.The ‘lost boys’ they exported to Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the US. etc, have been trying to substantiate and perpetuate the MYTH ever since. (hence the later invocation of La Nina, as a convenient way to ‘explain’ rain events.) I am well aware of the history of ENSO Eric, and the degree of infiltration of it’s deception into Climate Education, Bureaus of Meteorology and Climate Institutes throughout the World. You are obviously a part of the deception (unwittingly or not.)
    You have ‘denied’ and denigrated my forecasts and replaced them with MYTH. Well, Nature will resolve the question. (Remember,Two Solar/Earth Years of ‘Wet’/Normal Period, followed by Five Years of ‘Dry’ Cycle (drought)

    If you are going to derogate a work without reading it, your opinions are based on ignorance and your conclusions are based on supposition. You are wasting my time and compromising your own intellectual integrity. The offer of the free pdf remains.

  19. Eric Webb says:

    First you claim ENSO was discovered in the 1970s, now you claim it was “re-discovered”. Wow, you’re inconsistency is showing, while I provided specific facts and dates, you resort to bias claims and personal attacks. “part of the deception?” You’re the one trying to create deception here, once again, having no history to back up your claims you resort to personal attacks, and calling ENSO a “myth” is absurd and the fact that you support a book, which influences “wet/dry cycles” and dismantles ENSO, it is evident that you have a clear and defined agenda. You’re also going around numerous websites, including ones about ENSO and promoting a book which provides a weak theory, with little predictive value or correlation to precipitation. Your forecast for a “wet cycle in Australia in January 2013” will likely fail, because once again, ENSO will prove its strong correlation in accordance to precipitation, and keep Australia in a dry state due to el nino conditions which will move from its current position off the coast of South America to the central pacific. ENSO IS NOT A MYTH, and it comes as no coincidence that when the PDO is cold and the AMO is warm LIKE IT WAS IN THE 1950s, the worst drought since that period of time occurs this year. You may also want to check into your own predictions because the sun has thrown a wrench into the long-term climate forecast by entering the largest solar minimum in over a century, and the next solar cycle looks to be even lower in activity. According to a paper completed by Joe D’Aleo, in the late 2000s, the variance in the amount of energy received to earth’s surface varies by .1% from the peak to the minimum of a normal solar cycle. When you extrapolate the effects of reduced solar energy over a long period of time, it will have noticeable influences on climate, and the amount of heat energy received to earth’s surface. This will also cause variances in ocean temperatures, even leading to changes in the PDO and AMO, and when you use the ENSO in combination with volcanic activity, the perviously mentioned solar cycles, precession, earth’s changes in distance from the sun, the magnetic field, etc.. it can become very complicated over very long periods of time hundreds and even thousands of year, and that’s where those factors really come into play. If you understand the ENSO, and how to use it in combination SOI, and AMO, you can get a very good idea of where the overall global pattern is going to be. Take for instance, the beginning of the satellite era which started in 1979, when reliable, and objective global temperatures could be measured, without the adjustments of GISS, NOAA, and others. We saw a slight rise in global temperatures, and then in 1995, the AMO turned warm, and when the strong el nino of 1998 hit, global temperatures immediately responded, proving that ENSO had a large influence on what was really going on. Then, after that, temperatures flatlined until 2008, when the PDO turned to it’s cold phase. Evidence of that is represented by the abnormally colder than normal waters which extend from the bearing sea and run along the north american pacific coastline, and they are still there even in the presence of el nino. It should also come as no surprise that when the PDO turned cold, global temperatures began their jagged fall for the last 4 years, and the second half of this year is due to see another global temperature crash as referenced by the JMA and CFS climate models, and Joe Bastardi, and would make sense that given we are in a cold PDO, the el nino is present because it is responding to the extended double la nina, and with a major pattern reversal on the horizon, and teleconnections with AAO, which has been negative, tells us that cold is coming. One of the primary drivers of this change being the change in SOI and the state of the ENSO to el nino, and if this change didn’t come, the major pattern reversal wouldn’t occur, and Australia would probably see a “wet cycle” in January, but sadly that’s not going to occur. Once again, your “wet/dry cycles” have no predictive value, and such periods of wetter and drier conditions are easily the result in variances of the ENSO, of course, it is NOT THE ONLY FACTOR, but is the PRIMARY FACTOR, driving these abrupt changes in global weather patterns. There is no deception at work here, in any of the bureaus of meteorology or public education. These people have done honest work and have used history and provided evidence and history to support their claims, and you have put this theory under scrutiny, and have done well, and backed up my claims using history, and have put forth in front of you and anyone in cyberspace, predictions into the future using the theory of ENSO and also took into some consideration variances in solar cycles, and the possibility of a random major volcanic eruption. However, unlike you, I have not tried to demonize the other side, or tried to resort to claims of which have no merit or factual basis to them.

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