Visualizing The Brain Dead Ice Free Arctic Predictions

The graph below shows Arctic ice extent 2007 in blue and 2012 in red. The red dot shows where extent will likely be when the North Pole drops below freezing for the winter. After that date, any possibility of an ice-free Arctic drops to zero.

 

www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv

What becomes clear is that an ice-free Arctic is not a possibility without a radical change in climate, and that people who make such predictions have no idea what they are talking about.

PIOMAS indicates an ice-free Arctic in three years.

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60 Responses to Visualizing The Brain Dead Ice Free Arctic Predictions

  1. Billy Liar says:

    Ah, but the Danes are sending an icebreaker up there to chop up the ice and help it out of the Arctic.

    http://news.yahoo.com/danish-mission-amass-data-north-pole-claim-161208004.html

    Is there a correlation between the number of icebreaker/tourist ships going to the pole or other areas of Arctic ice and the decreasing ice extent?

  2. Eric Webb says:

    I’ve seen this a lot on Jeff Masters blog, isn’t it a computer model? If it is, it surely does not match observations, because clearly 2007 should be way below all other years for mid-september ice. Typical of climate models nowadays, not matching actual observations, using manipulated and fantasy data, then claiming catastrophic warming is coming, when none occurs at all.

    • Tony Duncan says:

      Eric, this is for ice VOLUME not extent. Not to worry though, i have been following Steve’s blog for awhile and all the multiyear ice is either increasing or about to increase.

      • Multi-year ice has been increasing since 2008 according to those evil deniers at NSIDC http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20111004_Figure6.png

      • Tony Duncan says:

        Steve, there is still time to make that bet with me then. As you say multi year ice has been increasing since 2008. Also 2007 ICE extent is over ONE THOUSAND Manhattan’s lower than 2012 as of yesterday. Thus it MUST be impossible to have a record minimum this year.
        Tell you what, because I am SUCH a stand up guy, and you are so nervous about betting, even on a money-up-front-sure-thing, I will change the odds to 40:1.

        And Houston is 27 games out with 60 to play. Them winning the world series would be the biggest come back in baseball history, probably the biggest in sports history.

        There we go. $20 plenty to take the family out to Chik-fil-A

      • Tony Duncan says:

        Steve,

        how often do I have to repeat it?
        $10 for a new record minimum, you giving me 40:1 odds. I pay you the $10 right away. you keep it. If Martians start beaming microwaves on the arctic and it somehow DOES record a record minimum you pay me $400.
        Likewise $10 that Houston Astros win the World series even though they are 27 games behind with 60 to go. Hell I will even let you give me 40:1 for that. Same terms.
        And I will let you back out no questions asked by August 10th on either bet.

        • PIOMAS says the ice is thinnest on record, NSIDC said that ice loss in June was the fastest on record, NASA predicted an ice-free Arctic in 2012, and Hansen showed June temps over the ice sheet 2-4C above normal. If these experts were telling the truth, a record minimum would be a done deal. You should be giving me 100:1 odds.

  3. Hasn’t PIOMAS’s trend been predicting an ice-free Arctic in three years for the last 5 years running?

  4. Ole Heinrich says:

    What the russian do – sailing tourist to the North Pole – http://www.polarcruises.com/arctic/ships/50-years_50.htm

  5. DC Andy says:

    All the missing heat from the oceans will get under the ice cap and presto-an ice free Arctic (sarc.)

  6. ES says:

    Ice buildup in parts of the Eastern Arctic are causing sealifts to delay unloading their cargo, meaning people and companies expecting cargo by ship will have to wait a bit longer.
    According to officials with Desgagnés Transarctik, two cargo ships are stuck at the mouth of Frobisher Bay, near Iqaluit, and even with the help of Coast Guard icebreakers they can’t get through.
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/story/2012/07/26/north-sealift-ship-damage.html
    Map of area:

    • Eric Webb says:

      What happened to rowing to the north pole? Hmm.. looks like you cant get there in a ship, not even in an icebreaker. Just shows how idiotic the press and the AGWers are.

    • Tony Duncan says:

      Just looked at that GIF, and you are right. the arctic is filled with ice. All that blue covering almost the entire map. But can you tell me what those tiny specs of red, yellow, green, and brown are?

  7. lance says:

    just back from vacation…and i know there was definitely a lack of ice in my drinks…

    • Andy DC says:

      Was wondering where you had disappeared to.

      • lance says:

        severe eating and drinking…managed to put in about 4 50km bike rides that week though…nice hill burn on the return leg…14% grade

        • I was just riding home and hit a volleyball which came flying over the roof of the bowling alley and landed right in front of my tire. I flew over the handlebars and got a huge gash on my head and a broken finger. It took me ten minutes to get the handlebars aligned with wheel again.

      • Tony Duncan says:

        Sorry about your accident. I just started riding a bike again, and still haven’t gotten a helmet.

      • lance says:

        sorry to hear about that Steve…get better…no close calls this vacation …

  8. ozspeaksup says:

    any consolation it wasn’t a bowling ball?
    ever thought walking may be safer? 🙂

  9. Peter Ellis says:

    The red dot shows where extent will likely be when the North Pole drops below freezing for the winter.

    Is that dot intended to be a testable prediction? If so, I’d be grateful if you could give the coordinates. By eye it looks to be ~day 220 (i.e. 7th August) and ~6.67 million square kilometres. Can you confirm?

    • garymount says:

      Take a look at this graph to help you understand the reasoning behind the red dots location:
      http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

      • Tony Duncan says:

        Peter, Steve is too modest, but it would be unsportsmanlike for him to bet you on even odds. That is why I am offering to let him give me 40:1 odds on this so he won’t feel guilty when he wins. And I LIKE Steve so I am letting him give me 50:1 odds on the Houston Astros winning the World series. the actual odds are probably way over 1,000:1 (just checked 20,000:1)

        But Steve here is a solution. Why don’t you take BOTH of Peter’s bet’s For your red dot and for minimum. And if you take MY bet too, you have £200 plus $20. that’s WEEKS of Chik-fil-A

    • DMI data shows that the North Pole goes below freezing every year right around that date. The North Pole has been running below normal all summer, so my dot is probably a little conservative.

      • Peter Ellis says:

        I’m glad to hear you’re so confident in your prediction. Could you state it in numeric terms, please, so we can all assess its accuracy in a week or so?

      • Peter Ellis says:

        No, but you clearly have a hard time making them. The dot here is nowhere near day 240.

        To make myself absolutely clear, I am asking for the numerical coordinates of your prediction (red dot) in the above linked graph, since you are so certain that it “shows where extent will likely be when the North Pole drops below freezing for the winter

      • Peter Ellis says:

        Both the X and Y values, please.

      • Peter Ellis says:

        Right, well at least we have the X value now. Although I can’t read the Y value exactly, would it be fair to state that you are predicting JAXA extent will be at or above 6 million square kilometres on day 240 (the 27th August)? If so, I’m willing to place a bet of £100 on those terms.

        • NASA forecast ice-free in 2012. Maslowski predicted 2013. NSIDC said record loss in June. PIOMAS shows ice volume dropping to zero in 2015. You being a true believer should be thrilled to bet on a record minimum this year. Slam dunk for you.

      • Peter Ellis says:

        I’m interested in your predictions, not mine. Is your red dot something you’re willing to put money on, or not?

      • Peter Ellis says:

        No, I think it’s around a 50% chance, and that’s not good enough for me. How about your dot – are you willing to bet? You said it was “probably a little conservative”, so presumably you think there’s a better than 50% of coming in above the red dot.

      • Tony Duncan says:

        Steve,

        Wow, cryosphere today and NSIDC show NW passage basically open the beginning of August. isn’t this when you find some historical document where someone sailed through there in 1937 or something? I didn’t think it was going to happen for at least another week.

    • I think it’s around a 50% chance

      Based on?

  10. Julienne Stroeve says:

    To help your betting on the record minimum, right now (7/28) the extent from the NASA Team sea ice algorithm is at 6.69, and in 2007 on the same date it was 6.72. The ice area is more interesting though. There’s a large area in the Chukchi Sea with very low ice concentrations and polynyas (see http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/ssmis/arctic_SSMIS_nic.png). Remember that while the incoming solar energy is declining, the ocean is still melting ice and it’s in August that the ocean contribution becomes important (as well as the winds that may compress or spread out the already diffuse ice cover). Based on 1979-2000 climatology, the amount of ice lost during the month of August is on average 1.55 million sq-km (a rate of about 52,000 sq-km per day). In 2007 the ice loss rate for August was 63,000 sq-km per day, in 2008 it was 82,500 and in 2011 it was 68,500 sq-km per day. In 2009 and 2010 it was around 55,000 sq-km per day.

    Not sure what the red dot is about, but I’m willing to bet the ice is not at 6 million square km at the end of August as you suggest in your plot. As for the minimum, I agree with Peter it’s about a 50/50 chance. The ice in the Chukchi is very diffuse and ready to melt out.

    • Tony Duncan says:

      Julianne,
      you are not helping in getting Steve to give me 40:1 odds for new record minimum 🙂
      Having absolutely no expertise, I still consider it less than a 50% chance of new minimum. My understanding is that the weather conditions were extraordinary in 2007 for favoring loss of ice, and also the extreme cold in Alaska required a lot of melting this year. Are those valid caveats in predicting something like this in your view?

      I am starting to think my prediction of 4.9M KM was probably conservative, however.

      • Julienne Stroeve says:

        Tony, yes weather conditions were very conducive for ice-loss in 2007. And they haven’t been as conducive in the years following, yet in 2008 and 2011, the minimum was close to that in 2007. So it’s not just the weather, it’s also that the ice isn’t as thick as it was prior to the 2007 minimum so it’s easier to melt out despite not having the weather pattern of summer 2007 (which was characterized by a persistent Arctic Dipole pattern – high SLP over the Beaufort Sea and low SLP over Siberia). It will be interesting to watch what happens to the ice in the Chukchi in the next few weeks.

      • Tony Duncan says:

        Is is just a co-incidence that the increase in five year ice comes exactly 5 years after the minimum ice extent of2007. Are you going to predict an increase in 5yr+ ice for NEXT year? and how many Km Sq is does that cover?

  11. Julienne Stroeve says:

    Steve, an increase relative to when? To 2007? 2011?

    March 2007, there was 1.07 million sq-km of 5+ ice.
    March 2011, there was 328,300 sq-km of 5+ ice.
    March 2012, there was 230,000 sq-km of 5+ ice.

    • Relative to autumn 2011, of course.

      • MFKBoulder says:

        And still the (fixed) red dot is a miss.
        You should refine your guess again…
        Would be nice if you’d update the your picture.

    • Peter Ellis says:

      Hi Julienne,

      I suspect Steve meant 4-year old ice. That is, the cohort represented by the green segment of last year’s graph (when it was 3 years old).

      In this spring’s graph, it’s the yellow segment of 3-4 year ice, again going up
      http: // nsidc.org / arcticseaicenews / files / 2012 / 04 / Figure5.png

      This is apparently the only cohort of multi-year ice he cares about, since it’s the only one he ever discusses. He likes to spin it as an inevitable consequence of the 2007 record, but in fact it’s a consequence of the temporary recovery in 2009, which meant that ice formed during the end of 2008 got more of a chance to survive and get older. This ice will be 4 years old at the end of this summer, and most of it is now in the northern Lincoln sea (though some of it was in the Beaufort and has since melted out).

      He’s quite right therefore that there will probably be more 4-year ice this at the end of this summer than there was last year. However I’m quite happy to bet that there will be less 5+ year ice, less 3-year ice and less 2-year ice. 1-year ice will be higher as a percentage of the total, but may conceivably be lower in absolute terms if there is a new record minimum extent this year.

  12. MFKBoulder says:

    your dot isn’t qualified as a CLOSE miss.
    It is just a miss.

  13. MFKBoulder says:

    Just for the records: Steven your guess was 64% abvoe the actual value – and minimum value at jaxa is not reached yet.

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