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The graph below shows Arctic ice extent 2007 in blue and 2012 in red. The red dot shows where extent will likely be when the North Pole drops below freezing for the winter. After that date, any possibility of an ice-free Arctic drops to zero.
www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv
What becomes clear is that an ice-free Arctic is not a possibility without a radical change in climate, and that people who make such predictions have no idea what they are talking about.
PIOMAS indicates an ice-free Arctic in three years.
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