Barring a huge change in the weather, the map below shows the minimum possible extent for 2012 vs. 2007
Green is 2012 and red is 2007. This is based on current ice thickness and temperature forecasts. Chances are that 2012 will finish larger than what I showed, because there is a lot of MYI in the Chukchi Sea which is not likely to melt out.
The only thing which could change this would be very strong southerly winds, like those which occurred in late summer 2007.