My Arctic Minimum Forecast

Barring a huge change in the weather, the map below shows the minimum possible extent for 2012 vs. 2007

Green is 2012 and red is 2007. This is based on current ice thickness and temperature forecasts. Chances are that 2012 will finish larger than what I showed, because there is a lot of MYI in the Chukchi Sea which is not likely to melt out.

The only thing which could change this would be very strong southerly winds, like those which occurred in late summer 2007.

About stevengoddard

Just having fun
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13 Responses to My Arctic Minimum Forecast

  1. gator69 says:

    “The only thing which could change this would be very strong southerly winds, like those which occurred in late summer 2007.”

    Or data tampering…

  2. Brian G Valentine says:

    The only explanation I have for 2007 is, PDO shift that slowed down the Gulf Stearn and North Atlantic Current, which allowed Arctic ice more summer sun exposure.

    Anybody else with consistent explanation, let’s hear it

  3. Brian G Valentine says:

    Gulf Stream sorry

  4. Andy DC says:

    The forecast models indicate pools of unusually cold air rotating around the Arctic Basin for the next couple of weeks. That should limit the amount of melt quite a bit. After that, the season is basically over. If Hansen tries to claim August is much above normal in that region, that would be yet another smoking gun about his dishonesty.

  5. tckev says:

    Meanwhile the Arctic rowers are stuck at 2 miles south of Barrow, Alaska, about 100 feet from shore because of the incoming sea ice.
    http://www.arcticrow.com/2012/08/04/a-tough-spot/

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