Ice Free Arctic By August 15

Looks like Zwally was right!  All of the ice will be gone in about a week.

COI | Centre for Ocean and Ice | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

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34 Responses to Ice Free Arctic By August 15

  1. tomwys says:

    As the current Ice-cap melt actually trends towards the 2007 minimum and may even surpass it by some thousands of sq/km, the Polar Easterlies will have fresh moisture to dump on Greenland and land surrounding the Arctic.

    Result? Early albedo increase (colder land temps), snow/ice accretion in Central Greenland, and record NH Snow Cover Extent for yearend 2012, so that this year will now become the coldest (land temp) of the last 16.

    Time to start reading up on Ewing and Donn!!!

  2. Traitor In Chief says:

    Remember several months ago when the extent was about to cross the 30 year mean and it suddenly got adjusted?

    There is nothing particular about this year. If 2007 was an artifact of warm water from 2005, then perhaps 2012 could represent the El Nino in 2010, but that would be the only way I could justify it.

    It is very tempting to believe that because the horror of additional declines beyond 2007 never materialized, the extent is getting electronic help from faithful zealots.

    Otherwise, it’s just an irrelevant zig among zags.

  3. miked1947 says:

    That is one heck of a shift in the wind pattern.

  4. Record low Arctic sea ice is always followed by fierce cold and snow. Look at the actual data.

    • Do you see record low ice somewhere?

      • MFKBoulder says:

        for the current date most of the reported graphs sea ice extent as well as sea ice area is the lowest measured (at leat since 1979). Take JAXA data, roos, dmi.

        I know see only what you like to see.
        How yout your “red dot” some weeks ago?

      • Tony Duncan says:

        Steve is not bound by the past. he is a man of action. Put your $1000 down or that means you KNOW this ACC stuff is garbage. All the silly things he has said in the past few months have no bearing on reality, and there is surely some panic going on as he flounders about for some explanation of how he and all his hangers on could possibly be wrong. I mean he just posted that graphic showing a devastating loss in the extent over just a couple of day. and he treats it as some sort of crazyness. Of course they are adjusted up the followid day. and everyone knows that, but the figures are just too big to not understand, even for someone like Steve.
        let’s be nice to him. he has been saying a minimum extent is virtually impossible since March. If we DO have a minimum record which now looks like it might be likely, he has to know that his intense condescending arrogant attitude denying that possibility will cause him some embarrassment.
        I mean these are his web buddies and they will console him, but everyone will know that even the great Steve Goddard is unable to force reality to bow to his will.
        Just the fact that it will at least be very close to the minimum, indicates his desperation in these posts.
        After all I was a skeptic and weighed in at 4.9 Million. that is obviously going to be ludicrously conservative. it would take an almost impossible combination of factors to make my prediction true. I have had to humbly revise down to 4.4 because what is going on now has already wreaked havoc up there. And I now think it is at worst a 50% chance of going below the 2007 minimum. And I think there is a real possibility that it could go below 4 mill.
        While I do often find Steve’s posts funny I think it hysterical that he won’t touch my bet. And of course he can’t answer any questions like you posed about the red dot. It means looking at his actual past assertions and he cannot allow himself to accept anything that contradicts his belief in his own understanding of the world

      • Tony Duncan says:

        Really Steve,

        you MUST get some to read my posts for you. I predicted 4.9. I have said that repeatedly. You KNOW that. And in this comment I am predicting 4.4. Are you telling me you don’t know the record minimum ice extent for the arctic. I just assumed you did. It is actually 4.267656million KM. Pretty sure that is LESS than 4.4 MIllion KM

    • John B., M.D. says:

      Herman – show us the “data.”

    • James Cessna says:


      Please provide reliable sources that confirm your conclusions. We want to see the source that confirms these data.

  5. Don Gaddes says:

    Unfortunately Steven, I think that black dashed line is supposed to represent your 20 bucks going down the ‘gurgler’.Tony Duncan and friends couldn’t raise the cash.

    • Tony Duncan says:

      Don, Steve has repeatedly refused my offer. OK, we are over EIGHTEEN THOUSAND manhattan’s from record minimum and only a month or so from the end of melt season. Steve has a free $20 I am ready top pay him right now. I will even graciously lower the odds to 30:1, in spite of all the evidence on this site and the honest reporting by the host of this blog that show it is almost an impossibility.
      CLEARLY tckev’s comment implies there is solid ice from Alaska to the North pole, and the satellites and all the worlds ice monitoring establishment are just making all this years melt up.
      And Andy has shown that the melt season must already be almost over, just as Steve suggested a couple of weeks ago.
      just imagine my humiliation come september when there is no record minimum, and the Astros don’t with the world series in October.

  6. Andy DC says:

    The weather pattern over the ice cap is unseasonably cold. Except around the edges, there should be very little melt.

  7. tckev says:

    And the Arctic rowers are still stuck. Here’s a nice little comment from their blog –

    Q: Why are they staying so close to land? Can’t they just row straight across to Russia?

    A: Google Maps is causing a lot of confusion for us here. People see a map clear of ice, and presume we can row the open ocean. Fact is, Anchorage ice service and Canada ice service both tell us that pack ice is currently 30 miles off shore. We navigated the perimeter of that flow once when it came close to shore, and it was harrowing [we’ll show the video they took when they land]. It took discipline to row against the wind direction to get out before we got crushed. We came close to shore in Barrow and holed up here to avoid ice that just receded yesterday. Now the gale force wind won’t let us leave. Bottom line: we’re more comfortable in the open ocean, but it’s frozen 30-50 miles from shore so all boats are where we are (except the nuclear coast guard cutter Healy). [* Side note: I’ve been asked a few times to post a picture of the entire planned route, which I will try to do tomorrow.]

  8. miked1947 says:

    It is just shifting wind patterns. The minimum probably has already been reached and the refreeze started.

  9. Eric Webb says:

    We are probably seeing the beginning of a cool down, or at least a slowdown in ice loss. However, we’ll probably lose a little more ice in the next few weeks, but an early start to the refreeze season looks fairly reasonable at this point.

  10. Eric Webb says:

    Even if we don’t get a minimum, you know the warmists at the University of Bremen will claim record loss again, like they did last year.

    • There is nothing changing in the Arctic. It is all mindless hype.

      • Eric Webb says:

        Yes, it is, even if the ice “disappears” what’s the big deal? The ice is at most 6 feet thick and all of that ice already displaces it’s weight on the ocean surface, thus calling into question how much sea level rise would occur. Also, ice expands when it freezes and does the opposite when it melts, and a few feet of ice melting will not result in a few feet of sea level rise. Plus, shipping lanes will be much faster allowing more efficient trading. Plus the polar bears probably wouldn’t mind, after all, their scientific name implies their amazing swimming capability. Even if the northern ice cap melts, the southern ice cap is getting bigger, helping to counter much of the loss over the north pole.

      • Eric Webb says:

        Yes, I know it won’t I’m saying that even if it did, (which it won’t) what is so bad about it? Yes, it is all mindless hype and these people who are forcing this agenda down our throats should be prosecuted for treason, this AGW crap is a puppet show to hide the real agenda to shut down the economy have utter control over our lives.

  11. I will repeat what I told NOAA recently
    NOAA posts on their website and in Facebook:

    The agency’s mission is “to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment and conserve and manage coastal and marine resources to meet our nation’s economic, social, and environmental needs.”

    Someday I do hope that NOAA’s understanding of Climate improves and that they will come to understand that the warm ocean time with low Arctic Sea Ice Extent is a necessary and desirable part of a natural cycle. This is the time that there is more than enough snow in the cold season to more than replace the snow that melted in the warm season. Ice retreats during the cool times and ice advances during the warm times. This is why the data is well bounded. Every warm time is followed by a cool time. Every cool time is followed by a warm time.

    Look at the data for the well bounded last ten thousand year

    The beauty of this simple theory is that this winter will bring forth more simple proof with heavy snowfall, much of which will be well outside the Arctic Circle and this year and next year will be more years that are cooler than 1998.

    You are encouraged to make a different forecast to read with me next spring and after next year.

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