Guardian Shock News : Sea Ice Is As Thin As It Was In 1940

Sea ice in the Arctic is disappearing at a far greater rate than previously expected, according to data from the first purpose-built satellite launched to study the thickness of the Earth’s polar caps.

Preliminary results from the European Space Agency’s CryoSat-2 probe indicate that 900 cubic kilometres of summer sea ice has disappeared from the Arctic ocean over the past year.

This rate of loss is 50% higher than most scenarios outlined by polar scientists and suggests that global warming, triggered by rising greenhouse gas emissions, is beginning to have a major impact on the region. In a few years the Arctic ocean could be free of ice in summer, triggering a rush to exploit its fish stocks, oil, minerals and sea routes.

Using instruments on earlier satellites, scientists could see that the area covered by summer sea ice in the Arctic has been dwindling rapidly. But the new measurements indicate that this ice has been thinning dramatically at the same time. For example, in regions north of Canada and Greenland, where ice thickness regularly stayed at around five to six metres in summer a decade ago, levels have dropped to one to three metres.

Rate of arctic summer sea ice loss is 50% higher than predicted | Environment | The Observer

Scary stuff – exactly the same as what happened between between 1900 and 1940

February 23, 1940

it was concluded that near Polar temperatures are on an average six degrees higher than those registered by Nansen 40 years ago. Ice measurements were on an average only 6½ feet against from 9¼ to 13 feet.

23 Feb 1940 – THE NORTH POLE. Is it Getting Warmer. | BUNDABER…<

A couple of years ago David Barber said that all the multiyear ice was gone, so it seems that conditions have improved considerably over the last two years.

Navy PIPS also shows considerable thickening over the last two years along the Canadian coast to about five metres. Do we expect The Guardian to ever tell the truth about anything?

h/t to Steven Mosher

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17 Responses to Guardian Shock News : Sea Ice Is As Thin As It Was In 1940

  1. Andy DC says:

    Alaska continues their chilly summer with nearly every station reporting below normal temperatures for August. Yesterday’s high at Barrow was 32, which is frigid even by their standards. They also received a trace of snow.

    Some of the unusual cold from the Arctic storm is predicted to come down into the US later next week. Will probably see record cold in many places. We will see how the alarmists dance around that.

  2. Warm says:

    “Navy PIPS also shows considerable thickening over the last two years along the Canadian coast to about five metres. Do we expect The Guardian to ever tell the truth about anything?”

    Pips is a model. Cryosat-2 results (commented in the article) are direct measurements. Are you pretending that a model is better than reality ?

    • PIPS is constantly updated with the latest real time information.

      • Peter Ellis says:

        PIPS is updated with concentration information, not with thickness information. There *is* no real time thickness information other than Cryosat and a handful of buoys.

        By the way, that 1940 report is about ice near the Pole, Barber was talking about the Beaufort sea, and the latest report is about the Lincoln sea. They are not comparable.

      • Peter Ellis says:

        Fair enough, if you think PIPS is perfect and updated with real time information, I take it you accept that the Chuckchi was full of 2-3m thick ice which melted out in the space of 10 days.

        http:// www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/ hycomARC/ navo/ arcticictn/ nowcast/ ictn2012080718_2012080700_035_arcticictn.001.gif

      • Peter Ellis says:

        I’ve never seen you do one of your pixel-integrations of the PIPS maps. Why is that, Steven? Is it because it would show unphysical rates of melt and volume fluctuations from day to day?

      • Peter Ellis says:

        How can it be difficult? The thickness value for each pixel is extremely precise, being given in 5cm increments. The scale to the right makes it clear what each colour means. All the ice colours are distinct from the colours used for land, open water, coasts and lat/long overlay. It’s simply a matter of counting how many pixels have each colour value. I thought that was your major area of expertise!

      • Peter Ellis says:

        Eh? You mean you can only count pixels if they’re pure red / green / blue?

      • Peter Ellis says:

        Here’s a command line utility which will do it for you. It’s available for Windows, OSX, Unix or iOS. It took about 1 minute to find by Google.
        http://www.imagemagick.org/script/binary-releases.php

      • Peter Ellis says:

        Example output:
        Using http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2012081118_2012081200_035_arcticictn.001.gif

        Number of pixels for each color.

        39500: ( 0, 0, 0) #000000 black
        456: ( 0, 0,236) #0000EC srgb(0,0,236)
        78: ( 0, 0,237) #0000ED srgb(0,0,237)
        492: ( 0, 7,139) #00078B srgb(0,7,139)
        453: ( 2, 32, 57) #022039 srgb(2,32,57)
        380: ( 5, 51, 72) #053348 srgb(5,51,72)
        131: ( 7, 98, 56) #076238 srgb(7,98,56)
        78: ( 7, 99, 57) #076339 srgb(7,99,57)
        292: ( 8, 69, 88) #084558 srgb(8,69,88)
        78: ( 8, 70, 88) #084658 srgb(8,70,88)
        100: ( 10,113, 67) #0A7143 srgb(10,113,67)
        78: ( 10,114, 68) #0A7244 srgb(10,114,68)
        242: ( 13, 86,116) #0D5674 srgb(13,86,116)
        78: ( 13, 86,117) #0D5675 srgb(13,86,117)
        123: ( 13,135, 74) #0D874A srgb(13,135,74)
        78: ( 13,136, 75) #0D884B srgb(13,136,75)
        211: ( 16,157, 89) #109D59 srgb(16,157,89)
        245: ( 17, 98,131) #116283 srgb(17,98,131)
        78: ( 17, 99,131) #116383 srgb(17,99,131)
        120: ( 19,116, 31) #13741F srgb(19,116,31)
        78: ( 19,117, 31) #13751F srgb(19,117,31)
        321: ( 20,109,137) #146D89 srgb(20,109,137)
        368: ( 25, 0, 0) #190000 srgb(25,0,0)
        361: ( 25,126,141) #197E8D srgb(25,126,141)
        196: ( 28,175,117) #1CAF75 srgb(28,175,117)
        78: ( 28,175,118) #1CAF76 srgb(28,175,118)
        263: ( 31,144,149) #1F9095 srgb(31,144,149)
        78: ( 31,145,149) #1F9195 srgb(31,145,149)
        364: ( 33, 0,247) #2100F7 srgb(33,0,247)
        78: ( 33, 0,248) #2100F8 srgb(33,0,248)
        157: ( 36,196,131) #24C483 srgb(36,196,131)
        78: ( 36,197,131) #24C583 srgb(36,197,131)
        270: ( 37,156,159) #259C9F srgb(37,156,159)
        78: ( 37,157,159) #259D9F srgb(37,157,159)
        209: ( 38,122, 0) #267A00 srgb(38,122,0)
        43: ( 42, 0, 0) #2A0000 srgb(42,0,0)
        78: ( 43, 0, 0) #2B0000 srgb(43,0,0)
        336: ( 43,169,169) #2BA9A9 srgb(43,169,169)
        164: ( 44,213,143) #2CD58F srgb(44,213,143)
        78: ( 45,214,143) #2DD68F srgb(45,214,143)
        146: ( 48,136, 0) #308800 srgb(48,136,0)
        78: ( 48,137, 0) #308900 srgb(48,137,0)
        273: ( 49, 0,252) #3100FC srgb(49,0,252)
        78: ( 49, 0,253) #3100FD srgb(49,0,253)
        260: ( 49,178,178) #31B2B2 srgb(49,178,178)
        78: ( 49,179,179) #31B3B3 srgb(49,179,179)
        145: ( 51,151, 0) #339700 srgb(51,151,0)
        78: ( 51,152, 0) #339800 srgb(51,152,0)
        143: ( 53,231,155) #35E79B srgb(53,231,155)
        78: ( 53,232,156) #35E89C srgb(53,232,156)
        270: ( 55,188,188) #37BCBC srgb(55,188,188)
        78: ( 56,188,188) #38BCBC srgb(56,188,188)
        210: ( 62,166, 0) #3EA600 srgb(62,166,0)
        268: ( 62,197,197) #3EC5C5 srgb(62,197,197)
        78: ( 62,198,198) #3EC6C6 srgb(62,198,198)
        141: ( 62,236,172) #3EECAC srgb(62,236,172)
        78: ( 62,237,173) #3EEDAD srgb(62,237,173)
        112: ( 64, 0, 0) #400000 srgb(64,0,0)
        249: ( 65, 0,252) #4100FC srgb(65,0,252)
        78: ( 65, 0,253) #4100FD srgb(65,0,253)
        277: ( 73,212,212) #49D4D4 srgb(73,212,212)
        78: ( 73,213,213) #49D5D5 srgb(73,213,213)
        136: ( 74,180, 0) #4AB400 srgb(74,180,0)
        78: ( 74,181, 0) #4AB500 srgb(74,181,0)
        161: ( 75,241,198) #4BF1C6 srgb(75,241,198)
        78: ( 75,242,199) #4BF2C7 srgb(75,242,199)
        180: ( 81, 0,252) #5100FC srgb(81,0,252)
        78: ( 81, 0,253) #5100FD srgb(81,0,253)
        292: ( 82,222,222) #52DEDE srgb(82,222,222)
        78: ( 82,223,223) #52DFDF srgb(82,223,223)
        153: ( 85,194, 0) #55C200 srgb(85,194,0)
        114: ( 86, 0, 0) #560000 srgb(86,0,0)
        78: ( 86,195, 0) #56C300 srgb(86,195,0)
        165: ( 88,243,222) #58F3DE srgb(88,243,222)
        78: ( 89,244,223) #59F4DF srgb(89,244,223)
        287: ( 90,231,231) #5AE7E7 srgb(90,231,231)
        78: ( 91,232,232) #5BE8E8 srgb(91,232,232)
        128: ( 96, 0,252) #6000FC srgb(96,0,252)
        78: ( 97, 0,253) #6100FD srgb(97,0,253)
        153: ( 99,200, 0) #63C800 srgb(99,200,0)
        78: ( 99,201, 0) #63C900 srgb(99,201,0)
        246: ( 99,240,240) #63F0F0 srgb(99,240,240)
        179: ( 99,247,237) #63F7ED srgb(99,247,237)
        91: (100,241,241) #64F1F1 srgb(100,241,241)
        78: (100,248,238) #64F8EE srgb(100,248,238)
        116: (108, 0, 0) #6C0000 srgb(108,0,0)
        200: (110,249,249) #6EF9F9 srgb(110,249,249)
        78: (110,250,250) #6EFAFA srgb(110,250,250)
        134: (112, 0,252) #7000FC srgb(112,0,252)
        78: (113, 0,253) #7100FD srgb(113,0,253)
        147: (113,206, 0) #71CE00 srgb(113,206,0)
        78: (113,207, 0) #71CF00 srgb(113,207,0)
        127: (124, 0,252) #7C00FC srgb(124,0,252)
        78: (125, 0,253) #7D00FD srgb(125,0,253)
        148: (127,212, 0) #7FD400 srgb(127,212,0)
        78: (128,213, 0) #80D500 srgb(128,213,0)
        37: (129, 0, 0) #810000 srgb(129,0,0)
        78: (130, 0, 0) #820000 srgb(130,0,0)
        134: (136, 0,252) #8800FC srgb(136,0,252)
        78: (137, 0,253) #8900FD srgb(137,0,253)
        112: (142,218, 0) #8EDA00 srgb(142,218,0)
        78: (142,219, 0) #8EDB00 srgb(142,219,0)
        120: (149, 0, 0) #950000 srgb(149,0,0)
        121: (152, 0,251) #9800FB srgb(152,0,251)
        78: (153, 0,252) #9900FC srgb(153,0,252)
        115: (156,224, 0) #9CE000 srgb(156,224,0)
        78: (157,224, 0) #9DE000 srgb(157,224,0)
        46: (165, 0, 0) #A50000 srgb(165,0,0)
        78: (166, 0, 0) #A60000 srgb(166,0,0)
        104: (168, 3,250) #A803FA srgb(168,3,250)
        78: (169, 3,251) #A903FB srgb(169,3,251)
        103: (170,229, 0) #AAE500 srgb(170,229,0)
        78: (171,230, 0) #ABE600 srgb(171,230,0)
        40: (182, 0, 0) #B60000 srgb(182,0,0)
        78: (183, 0, 0) #B70000 srgb(183,0,0)
        91: (184, 9,248) #B809F8 srgb(184,9,248)
        78: (185, 9,249) #B909F9 srgb(185,9,249)
        97: (187,235, 0) #BBEB00 srgb(187,235,0)
        78: (187,236, 0) #BBEC00 srgb(187,236,0)
        93: (188, 41,242) #BC29F2 srgb(188,41,242)
        78: (189, 41,243) #BD29F3 srgb(189,41,243)
        144778: (191,159,127) #BF9F7F srgb(191,159,127)
        94: (193, 58,243) #C13AF3 srgb(193,58,243)
        78: (194, 58,244) #C23AF4 srgb(194,58,244)
        84: (198, 74,244) #C64AF4 srgb(198,74,244)
        47: (199, 0, 0) #C70000 srgb(199,0,0)
        78: (199, 74,245) #C74AF5 srgb(199,74,245)
        78: (200, 0, 0) #C80000 srgb(200,0,0)
        89: (203, 90,245) #CB5AF5 srgb(203,90,245)
        78: (204, 90,246) #CC5AF6 srgb(204,90,246)
        112190: (204,204,204) #CCCCCC grey80
        88: (204,239, 0) #CCEF00 srgb(204,239,0)
        78: (205,240, 0) #CDF000 srgb(205,240,0)
        78: (208,106,246) #D06AF6 srgb(208,106,246)
        91: (209,106,247) #D16AF7 srgb(209,106,247)
        57: (213, 0, 0) #D50000 srgb(213,0,0)
        83: (213,122,247) #D57AF7 srgb(213,122,247)
        78: (214, 0, 0) #D60000 srgb(214,0,0)
        78: (214,123,248) #D67BF8 srgb(214,123,248)
        97: (218,138,248) #DA8AF8 srgb(218,138,248)
        78: (219,139,249) #DB8BF9 srgb(219,139,249)
        147: (223, 18, 0) #DF1200 srgb(223,18,0)
        100: (223,154,249) #DF9AF9 srgb(223,154,249)
        78: (223,241, 0) #DFF100 srgb(223,241,0)
        78: (224,155,250) #E09BFA srgb(224,155,250)
        78: (224,242, 0) #E0F200 srgb(224,242,0)
        75: (226, 31, 0) #E21F00 srgb(226,31,0)
        78: (227, 31, 0) #E31F00 srgb(227,31,0)
        111: (228,170,250) #E4AAFA srgb(228,170,250)
        86: (229, 43, 0) #E52B00 srgb(229,43,0)
        124: (229, 58, 0) #E53A00 srgb(229,58,0)
        117: (229, 74, 0) #E54A00 srgb(229,74,0)
        129: (229, 89, 0) #E55900 srgb(229,89,0)
        104: (229,105, 0) #E56900 srgb(229,105,0)
        109: (229,120, 0) #E57800 srgb(229,120,0)
        121: (229,136, 0) #E58800 srgb(229,136,0)
        107: (229,151, 0) #E59700 srgb(229,151,0)
        73: (229,167, 0) #E5A700 srgb(229,167,0)
        78: (229,171,251) #E5ABFB srgb(229,171,251)
        85: (229,183, 0) #E5B700 srgb(229,183,0)
        92: (229,198, 0) #E5C600 srgb(229,198,0)
        72: (229,213, 0) #E5D500 srgb(229,213,0)
        78: (230, 43, 0) #E62B00 srgb(230,43,0)
        78: (230, 58, 0) #E63A00 srgb(230,58,0)
        78: (230, 74, 0) #E64A00 srgb(230,74,0)
        78: (230, 90, 0) #E65A00 srgb(230,90,0)
        78: (230,105, 0) #E66900 srgb(230,105,0)
        78: (230,121, 0) #E67900 srgb(230,121,0)
        78: (230,136, 0) #E68800 srgb(230,136,0)
        78: (230,152, 0) #E69800 srgb(230,152,0)
        78: (230,168, 0) #E6A800 srgb(230,168,0)
        78: (230,184, 0) #E6B800 srgb(230,184,0)
        91: (230,199, 0) #E6C700 srgb(230,199,0)
        78: (230,214, 0) #E6D600 srgb(230,214,0)
        200: (233,187,250) #E9BBFA srgb(233,187,250)
        86: (233,228, 0) #E9E400 srgb(233,228,0)
        78: (234,229, 0) #EAE500 srgb(234,229,0)
        78: (235,187,251) #EBBBFB srgb(235,187,251)
        414: (238,203,251) #EECBFB srgb(238,203,251)
        78: (239,204,252) #EFCCFC srgb(239,204,252)
        81: (242,242, 0) #F2F200 srgb(242,242,0)
        348: (243,219,252) #F3DBFC srgb(243,219,252)
        78: (243,243, 0) #F3F300 srgb(243,243,0)
        78: (244,220,253) #F4DCFD srgb(244,220,253)
        671: (248,235,253) #F8EBFD srgb(248,235,253)
        78: (249,236,254) #F9ECFE srgb(249,236,254)
        3876: (255,229,178) #FFE5B2 srgb(255,229,178)
        168588: (255,255,255) #FFFFFF white

      • Peter Ellis says:

        To use it, navigate to the directory you’ve stored your gif file in and execute the following command:

        >convert <inputfile.gif> -format %c histogram:info:- >output.txt

      • Peter Ellis says:

        Replace <inputfile.gif> with the name of the input file, of course, without angle brackets. Also, note that the image legend contributes exactly 78 pixels for each colour, so you’ll need to subtract that from the totals.

      • Peter Ellis says:

        By the way, how long did it take you to write your “proprietary software” that apparently can’t count blended colours, and how much do you charge people when you’re hired to use it? Because you just gout outperformed by a free utility.

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