Guest Post By Joe Bastardi
Greatest Summer turn around ever?
If we take the hot Julys of 52,53,54,34,36,10,11
And look at the August average of what follows
we notice the mean of all this can be looked at to be slightly cooler but still very hot
But given what is going on now, the past 5 days, plus the forecasted upcoming 16, with another record cold air mass coming this weekend into the areas ( another because we had one this past weekend) that was in the heart of the NOAA Hot July area, this should be one of the greatest, if not THE NUMBER ONE GREATEST, July to August turn arounds in temps in US history. The 16 day means of over 5 degrees C below normal seem to cold to me ( I cant believe it can be 10 below for over 2 weeks, if it is, that could be the coldest 2 week period in US history in August for the plains, though I have not looked back at all of them
but this is amazingly cold. These models are on our Weatherbell.com site being developed by the one and only Dr Ryan Maue.
Now are you going to hear me start yapping that an amazing flip like this over 1-2% of the globe is a sign of global cooling. Of course not since that is pure nonsense. However arguing a cooling trend may be starting because of the cold PDO, which can be seen here with the 3 year meter temperature trend FOR THE ENTIRE GLOBE is something that should be considered.
Do you think we will hear anything about this major turn around from the people screaming about the hot July, even though it may wind up being unprecedented
in magnitude? Of course not. And the last thing they really want you to do is look at the total picture of the 2 meter temperatures the last few years, after the leveling off of the previous 10.
It is as if these people are mere weather voyeurs, only looking when it fits their purpose and only at the area it does. Look at this
How many YEARS have we ( many of us, not just me) been saying the flip to a cold PDO would lead to this. Last year President Obama got up in front of a crowd in Texas and blamed the drought on global warming , when temperatures as you can see above were cooling and the PDO idea was the reason for a forecast for increased drought like the 1950s From 4 -5 years previous. Did anyone call him on it. Will he apologize to Ricky Perry for what he said now? Of course not. Is there any acknowledgement on NOAAs part, or the WAPO that they are joining the party 5 years late, and that its not co2 causing this?
I am in awe of not only the weather, but how they get away with ANY this.
Joe, if we are already seeing a turnaround like this in August, can’t even imagine what winter will be like. Noticed in one of your analog years of 1976-77 winter, they had snow in Tampa, Miami, and even a rain/snow mix in the Bahamas, if this is any indicator of what this winter may be capable of, we might be in for one heck of a winter, especially east of the Rockies. It is interesting because that snow in Florida occurred about the exact same time when Carter was sworn in, interesting, perhaps it was the “Carter Effect.”
Cooler air masses in late summer and early fall are usually followed by increased hurricane activity, because the cold air sinks, raises the pressures over the US, and forces a lowering of pressures for the areas over the tropics and combine that with the MJO, we may have a real mess on our hands starting next week.
That is a great observation Eric .The rise in pressure that occurs over the continent as summer wanes while the oceans are warm, forces convergence to increase over the atlantic, Great point
Thanks Joe, it just helps to verify your forecast for AUG 20-SEP 5 for significant tropical activity. Looks more like a zonal flow over the Atlantic for the next 7-10 days, where anything south of 20 north goes west and north of 30 goes east, which makes this pattern favorable for quick recurves, at least for the moment. However, I have been noticing the ECMWF and GFS starting to bring the A-B high back beyond a week’s time. Before then, anything that develops in the central and eastern atlantic looks like a fish storm., but until the NAO becomes positive, the high will remain weak and the only threats to the US coast will be very in close, especially towards the Gulf of Mexico. If we take away the fact that under the cold air, the air pressure will be rising the most, if we look due south of that, that’s seems to be where trouble likes to stir up. We saw this early in the season with the high over southern and Atlantic Canada, and underneath it that’s where we saw tropical development with Alberto and Beryl.
My initial personal impression of the turnaround locally (central Tennessee), is that it is just an early change of seasons–not to continued low temperatures, or indicating a very cold winter coming, but an end-of-summer amelioration of the hottest days, leading to continued normal Fall temperatures, just starting three or four weeks earlier than normal. If it gets hot (90+) again before Labor Day, then it is not even that, just a cool(er), and rainier, week or so. At this point, I’m not even worried we will see an early start to winter, just this early summer-to-fall easing of the (normal) heat. Big deal, Buckeroo Banzai.
THanks for the posting, Joe!
Climategate emails and documents were the tip of a cancerous growth that thrived out-of-sight for sixty-four years (2009-1945 = 64 yrs), before finally surfacing in Nov 2009.
Nice post Joe..Im with you on all of your research and development in the so called climate change – global warming hoopla. I stand behind you 100 percent and read all of your posts. No other Meteorologist posts on the weather and gives analysis out straight forward like you do brother. Keep up the good work. Thanks for all that you do. I look forward each and every day to what you write and am amazed at what I have learned. Thanks again
FWIW, the biggest July-August turnaround (from hot to cold) occurred in 1966. August 1966 was 4.24°F cooler than July 1966. The top ten, starting from the largest were: 1966, 1964, 1974, 1931, 1917, 1927, 1954, 1933, 1985, and 2002. 2002 is the only case that was followed by an El Niño winter.
The raw data shows that the drop from July to August 1901 was about the same as 1966. It also shows July 1901 as being the hottest month on record in the US at 78.35 degrees.
The idea was June/July vs August. Sorry if I did not make that clear. However this August could wind up beating all of these. Remember as I pointed out, part of the reason is July was so hot. August is half way over, but the coldest is coming the next 10 days! We should score this. Lets take the July mean of the following sites in 1966 and 2012, okay. Nothing like a bit of competition. Let take MSP, ORD, CVG, DCA, ATL DFW,DEN.. that boxes the core of the heat pretty good. By my count July 1966 was about 1.85
This July looks like its PLUS 4 in those cities
with all due respect the July this year is much hotter than 1966 as you can see
Now to August 1966 The selected city total is about -1 this would be in the plains to the east coast a 2.85 drop. Again the problem may be the fact that this July is visibly hotter than 1966, but a comparable temp map, which is possible
would beat that like a drum.
So lets say the number to beat, on this thumbnail is 3 ( I will give you the extra .15) the fact is the map shows this July to be much hotter than that, and that is acknowledged in my piece.
Lets total it when its done
Of course, the cooling in August will be caused by AGW.
The so-called July/August turnaround in the US. is simply the reverting to a Two Solar/Earth Year ‘Wet’/Normal Period from the recent One Solar/Earth year ‘Dry’ Cycle.This last happened in 1994, and before that 1976, 1958, etc, and will next happen July/August 2030 (for the US.)
Looking forward to your upcoming ‘Balmy’ period Joe. Is that the correct spelling?
PS. Nothing to do with ENSO.
An updated version of ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ Alex S. Gaddes 1990 (including ‘Dry’ Cycle forecasts to 2055) is available as a free pdf from dongaddes firstname.lastname@example.org
OMG, not this nonsense again, seriously HOW does ENSO have “nothing” to do with this? No coincidence that the equatorial waters in the NINO 1 and 2 regions cooled, and the US cooled too, something Joe Bastardi has been touting since spring. The cooling in the eastern pacific forced the core of the el nino, further west, thus raising the pressures over the United States, and higher pressures are associated with colder air, thus a good reason why it is cooling down. Don, you are full of yourself.
Joe, if you see this, what do you forsee for this winter in the NW? Will we be spared the Frigid blast?
Think it may start early. but Jan and feb mild there. Weatherbell is place to watch for all the ideas I have
Great Report Joe,
This temperature deviation reversal around these dates to much colder center and East USA is in our WeatherAction long-range forecast for USA issued 31 July (from data choices made16th July).
AND YES this stark switching is part of our predicted solar-lunar driven dramatic shifts in the Jet stream WORLD-WIDE and associated changes in circulation. Indeed as subscribers to our forecasts know we write in our USA maps forecast for the period (WeatherAction forecast is in 8 periods through the month) when we expect the most dramatic changes:-
“World-wide changes in jet streams / ITCZs and circulation patterns”.
This is the point: The dramatic switches are
– essentially simultaneous,
– driven by solar-particle/magnetic and lunar modulation effects and
– predictable in long range by our WeatherAction Solar Lunar Action Technique (SLAT).
What is developing now is marked by (pretty) simultaneous (in weather time scales) dramatic shifts all over the globe, the Britain/Ireland, Europe and USA situations being explicitly predicted by our SLAT in detail:-
– The ending of deluges across Britain and an essentially dry period taking over with Low’s being generally held in the Atlantic / to the South
– Corresponding ending of heat in East Europe
– much colder USA center and east and – in our forecast – prediction of WHEN the great heat and droughts USA will end (see below).
– a tremendous Arctic Low, see http://twitpic.com/ajbdai/full
– an amazing record breaking cold blast with snow in ALL 9 provinces of South Africa.
One might expect that leading politicians and media of USA, Europe and UK would like to make use of and apply these forecasts to reduce misery and save lives but NO. There is only ONE that shows any interest – Boris Johnson, Mayor of London.
The rest and their prime propaganda machines the New York Times and BBC spout the scientific cretinism of the CO2 warmist religion which is pointing the world in the wrong direction. God Save Us as well as the Queen, I hope.
A FEW extra people are subscribing to our forecasts – now available under a great offer open to 17th Aug of free*** extra forecasts – but NOTHING compared with what is needed or the useful advice that could be given by media to millions in Europe and USA – eg US drought stricken areas if the US Govt bothered to bother about its people.
So what is going to happen in next few weeks?
1. Standard meteorology is going to make many mistakes in the ‘new situations’ in coming weeks.
2. There will be more than one significant change in Jet Streams and circulation apart from the main dramatic shifts USA & Europe explained in our forecasts.
3. The USA drought(s) will stutter but the final dramatic end of drought and heat in central parts will be through vigorous thunderstorms, tornadic strength winds, hail etc in central and East parts in period 23-27th August.
*** Further information / get forecasts (offer extended to 17th August in the Spirit of London 2012) visit: http://t.co/rQGOK80B
Piers Corbyn, Weatheraction long weather and climate range forecasters
Mr. Bastardi and all the smart people out there,
Thank you for giving voices to the majority of Americans who don’t buy the bs surrounding the global warming scam.
I know I’m asking too much… please be more vocal.
The truth is coming out and we are winning.
I’ll leave it to you chaps (Joe and Piers) to deal with the short term ups and downs.
My interest is in the longer term multidecadal to centennial swings from one PDO phase to the next and from MWP to LIA to date.
Suffice it to say that it does appear that those longer term trends are linked to top down solar effects on the global air circulation whereby the permanent climate zones drift latitudinally to and fro beyond normal seasonal variation over long periods of time. I have previously explained how and why that happens.
That latitudinal drifting alters the rate of energy flow from surface to space and therefore acts as a negative system response to any forcing process that seeks to change the system energy content.
One of the main features is the shift between zonal (strong west to east flow) and meridional (an increased north / south component) wind flows around the globe whereby a zonal flow tends to be a negative system response to net warming (faster energy loss to space) and a meridional flow is a negative system response to net cooling (slower energy loss to space).
We are currently seeing a much more meridional (cooling) flow at present and one of the effects is more extremes as the jets lock into position for variable periods of time giving more persistent anomalous weather conditions in changing locations around the globe which gives us events such as anomalous hot summers alternating with anomalous cold winters.
The change to more meridionality occurred around 2000 (and has intensified since ) coincident with reducing solar activity which has changed beyond the normal single cycle range as we progressed from active cycle 23 to much less active cycle 24.
Meridional jets give more global cloudiness because the length of the lines of air mass mixing increase. Global albedo rises and less solar energy gets into the oceans for a net system cooling over time.
Very interesting, to me. Thanks, Stephen.
Nice post, very informative, learned a few things too.
It is simply the passing of a One Solar/Earth Year ‘Dry’ Cycle Piers. Currently over Australia, ending Early January 2013 (East Coast) These ‘Dry’ Cycles initiate around the110 degree East of Prime longitude to the West of Australia (Beijing) and move East to West at thirty degrees longitude/month with the Solar orbit of the Earth’s Magnetic Field. This means South Africa (for instance) is already been nine months under the influence of the subsequent Two Solar/Earth Year ‘Wet’/Normal Period,that has just started in the the US. and reaches Australia early January 2013)
This will be followed by a severe Five Year ‘Dry’ Cycle (drought) affecting Australia early January 2015 – 19. (South Africa from April 2014 -18)
You obviously don’t have the formula for the prediction and duration of these ‘Dry’ Cycles and the the ‘Wet’/Normal Periods between. You also have not mentioned the effect of explosive volcanic activity (albedo) in the potential amelioration of the ‘Dry’ Cycles and the exacerbation of the ‘Wet’/Normal Periods. The thing you have got correct is the importance of Solar/Lunar/Particle/Magnetic Field relationships – but you do not appear have the correct formulaic relationships of these factors.
The UK. has more than 12 months of the current Two Solar/Earth Year ‘Wet’/Normal period to go.
Alex S. Gaddes identified and produced a method to exactly forecast these ‘Dry’Cycles in his work ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ (1990) An updated version of this work (with ‘Dry’Cycle forecasts to 2055) is available as a free pdf from email@example.com
Piers speaks Truth….but is pursued by web trolls, glory shadows and poser echos. Being the first to shout “ME TOO!” the loudest does not constitute an opinion worth considering. Follow Piers and Bastardi, along with those who show True, emperical based, independent thought. But remember, the web is full of trolls, shadows and echos.
Like Bastardi, Corbyn does not have a viable forecast method. Subsequently, ( like Joe,) he is peddling ‘Snake Oil’.
Don, you are a hypocrite, you don’t have a viable forecast method, and you still can’t prove HOW ENSO has nothing to do with climate, and instead you claim each warm, cool, dry, or wet period like you predicted it. Don, before you criticize someone make sure you have evidence to back it up.
Eric, Don,Joe, Piers, Salvatore etc;
You lack a viable forecast method if your forecasts are wrong. If your forecasts are wrong, and you are selling them to the gullible. That is ‘Snake Oil’
It is a fair bet that most of the exports from the University of East Anglia who became ENSO junkies and BoM ‘stooges’ have a ‘degree in Meteorology’.(read ‘License to Deceive’.)
‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ Alex S. Gaddes (1990) contains the forecast method and the verifiable forecasts. The updated version of this work,(with ‘Dry’ Cycle forecasts to 2055) is available as a free pdf from firstname.lastname@example.org
To my knowledge, none of you has yet read it. What are you afraid of?
Snake oil? Justify this inane and libelous remark or withdraw it.
FACT. Our WeatherAction Solar Lunar Action Technique (SLAT) has independently proven peer-reviewed skill and wins money on weather bets. See for example our special public 3 month ahead forecast of 6 extreme events around the world which scored 5/5 and one ‘non-runner’ http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews12No5.pdf – and loads more stuff on http://www.weatheraction.com/
QUESTION. What have you forecast in long range? Does your approach have any proven skill? For latest on our forecasts please go to http://t.co/rQGOK80B
Piers, I love your forecasts, and I’m personally amazed at some of the accuracy you’ve shown over the years.
That Mr. Bastardi and Mr. Corbyn are not utilizing your preferred forecasting approach does not mean that they lack a “viable forecast method.” Bastardi has a degree in meteorology. To imply that a meteorologist lacks a viable forecast method is to argue that meteorology lacks legitimacy when it comes to explaining and forecasting the weather. That is an absurd argument. Moreover, the scientific literature shows that ENSO is one of the more important factors in shaping internal or natural variability. Given the literature, I would argue that the claim that ENSO has no impact is actually the “snake oil” to which you refer.
Here is what I think might unfold going forward for the short term,although I am more into the long term climatic outlook,which I will address first. Put simply, the long term temperature trend for the rest of this decade will be lower, as this decade proceeds. The probability of a temperature rise from here to the end of the decade ,I put at 0%.
I am thinking a 1.0 C to 2.0 C temperature drop by the end of the decade, probability 65%, with a slight 5% probability, it could be greater then 3.0 C, temperature drop by decade end.
It is going to depend(in large part) on how the decline from solar cycle 24 maximum(weakest since solar cycle 5,around 1700 AD) phases in with an increase in volcanic activity. I expect geological(volcanic activity to increase) as solar cycle 24 declines. Not to forget the secondary effects which will be a lower Atmospheric Cicruclation Index(ACI) as the EUV light emissions from the sun lessen, promoting a more meridional type of circulation,(which has started back around 2009), combined with a decrease in the solar wind ,giving rise to a greater cosmic ray flux, perhaps increasing global cloud cover as a result, along with a lower solar irradiance ,which has been shown to be in a range of 0.20 to maybe as much as 0.50 lower(during the Maunder Minimum), then what irradiance ranges were last century ,when the sun featured a more or less 11 year sunspot cycle, with high sunspot activity in general. That level of solar activity changing in a DRASTIC manner during OCT. of year 2005. When the current prolong solar minimum started, which I say has at least 25 more years to go.
Take into account, a continuation of a cold PDO, more La Ninas, a warmish Arctic, and the SET-UP is in for a Northern Hemisphere cool down, substancial in my opinion.
Let us now visit the short term.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WINTER 2012-2013 FOR THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AND THE UNITED STATES
1, euv light emissions from the sun will be below normal
2. solar wind will be below average(more cosimic rays,more clouds)
3. irradiance compared to pre 2005 levels will be weaker
4. qbo will be in an easterly phase
5. enso will be either la nada or weak el nino
6. arctic ice below normal
7. volcanic activity the question mark? unknown
8. great lakes temperatures well above normal
9. aci will be negative, a more meridional atmospheric circualtion
10, pdo will be in cold phase, how cold -0.5, -1.0 or -2.0 standard deviations ,unknown
Given all the above, the N.H. is very likely to experience many extreme cold outbreaks, with a tendency toward a persistence in weather patterns once they get established. Some places will feature above normal temperatures and dry condtions, but the rule will be for below normal temperatures and more wet ,in contrast to dry conditions.
As far as the U.S.A., I expect a trough to develope around the longitude of the Great Lakes, a ridge towards the North and East,from the Lakes,say in the direction of Greenland, more or less. I expect another trough in the extreme Eastern Pacific, with some sort of ridge in the Western U.S.A.
That should then result in very snowy conditions around the Lakes with temperatures on the cold side,east coast being stormy (rain and snow),while Western U.S.A will be for the most part closer to average conditions, with maybe wetter conditions along the Western Coast of the United States.
NOTE: I have a much higher degree of confidence in my long range outlook for the rest of this decade ,then for this short range attempt I just made.
You make many valid points here and what you are saying does make some sense.
I say it is great to see Joe Bastardi giving his input,along with Piers Corbyn, and Stephen Wilde, and any others,plus myself.
That is what we need to do, express are opinions, put them out and see how correct/wrong they are. I hate spinning, I hate it!!
I will not change what I wrote ,write or wrong it stands.
I MEANT RIGHT OR WRONG IT STANDS.
You just changed it. 😉
So YOU DID CHANGE IT! Rite?
Anyhow, yes, testable science is the only science!
One approach in trying to project what the climate will be doing going forward, is to try to pick out a time period from the past ,that comes closest to the present day situation.
I come up with the time period between 1250 AD- 1300 AD. The period just prior to the start of the Little Ice Age.
This year’s weather in Europe has certainly been very like the weather reported in 1315AD.
From the book “The Long Summer: How Climate Changed Civilization” By Brian M. Fagan – “Seven weeks after Easter in A.D. 1315, sheets of rain spread
across a sodden Europe, turning freshly plowed fields into lakes and quagmires. The deluge continued through June and July, and then August and September. Hay lay flat in the fields; wheat and barley rotted unharvested. The anonymous author of the Chronicle of Malmesbury wondered if divine vengeance had come upon the land: “Therefore is the anger of the Lord kindled against his people, and he hath stretched out his hand against them, and hath smitten them.” Most close-knit farming communities endured the shortages of 1315 and hoped for a better harvest the following year. But heavy spring rains in 1316 prevented proper sowing. Intense gales battered the English Channel and North Sea; flocks and herds withered, crops failed, prices rose, and people again contemplated the wrath of God. By the time the barrage of rains subsided in 1321, over a million-and-a-half people, villagers and city folk alike, had perished from hunger and famine-related epidemics. Giles de Muisit, abbot of Saint-Martin de Tournai in modern-day Belgium, wrote, “Men and women from among the powerful, the middling, and the lowly, old and young, rich and poor, perished daily in such numbers that the air was fetid with the stench.” People everywhere despaired. Guilds and religious orders moved through the streets, the people naked, carrying the bodies of saints and other sacred relics. After generations of good, they believed that divine retribution had come to punish a Europe divided by war and petty strife.
The great rains of 1315 marked the beginning of what climatologists call the Little Ice Age, a period of six centuries of constant climatic shifts that may or may not be still in progress.”
They blamed ‘The anger of the Lord’ then now they blame CO2 with as much religious zeal.
The solar impact on climate in the coming decades could be far reaching. Solar cycle 24 is shaping up to be at least as weak as the cycle that led to the Dalton Minimimum. Australian scientist David Archibald suggests that solar cycle 25 will be even weaker. Are we headed into another period of extended cooling resembling the Little Ice Age? Or worse? (We’ve been in this current interglacial for around 11,500 years.)
We really should hope for continued warmth and more CO2. The benefits of both are great for humanity and for increased food production. A period of extended cold could force grain belts in the northern hemisphere several hundred miles south. That would not be good.
Any role that human-induced CO2 plays in warming the earth is so small it is not even measurable. The sun rules long term, with shorter-term variations in climate produced by changing oceanic oscillations (e.g. PDO, ENSO, AMO) and volcanism.
I meant Dalton “Minimum.”
Forget the ENSO ‘Fantasy’ and you are right Kirk. The Northern Hemisphere could become very short of arable land very quickly.