Arctic Melt Season Getting Shorter And Ending Earlier

About stevengoddard

Just having fun
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16 Responses to Arctic Melt Season Getting Shorter And Ending Earlier

  1. gator69 says:

    IT”S. A. TREND!!! (eek)

  2. Julienne Stroeve says:

    Steve, why not show all the years? The freeze-up trend is positive from 1979-2011, at a rate of 2.4 days per decade. And since 2002 (the date you show) every year has had a melt freeze-up date on the 9th or later, so having a freeze-up either in the 2nd or 3rd week of September. It is interesting though that your freeze-up dates differ from mine, but mine are based on 5-day running means so that could be part of the reason why.

    • Julienne,

      JAXA only goes back to 2002. I`m showing all of the data they publish.

      • Julienne Stroeve says:

        Here are the freeze-up dates based on 5-year trailing running means of the ice extent (note the minimum date ends up shifted by two days each year if I use the 5-day trailing mean rather than the 5-day centered mean).
        2002 9/14
        2003 9/18
        2004 9/20
        2005 9/22
        2006 9/17
        2007 9/18
        2008 9/20
        2009 9/13
        2010 9/21
        2011 9/11

        I think it would be hard to argue from this data that there has been a significant trend towards earlier freeze-up.

      • Dave N says:


        I don’t see anywhere where Steve said “significant”.

        It was interesting to note however, that you asked why he didn’t show all the years. Is there some other data you were thinking of?

  3. Andy says:

    Who put that red line in and who did the software to generate it? Can we have source please?

    If you look at the scientific website

    Look at the minima date for the dashed lines, it is defintely moving to the right towards October for 1980 onwards and then if you look at the solid lines they are not going towards Sept 1st either are they?

    It is looking like sub 4 and late Sept minimum at the moment.


  4. Ben says:


    Do you have good reference material for WindSat and AMSR-E algortihms? I am currently digesting

  5. Julienne Stroeve says:

    Dave, I meant the entire satellite record, not just the AMSR-E record. If Steve were to show all the years during the satellite era he would have a positive trend.

    • Shooter says:

      Then you’d start in the 1970’s. That was when there was an expansion in ice cover.


      • gator69 says:

        Julienne just wants to be a trend setter. 😉

      • Julienne Stroeve says:

        Shooter, if you know of a continuous data set in the 1970s please pass it on. We have data gaps between ESMR and SMMR, so having a complete record of the date of the minimum extent isn’t out there unless you start in October 1978 when SMMR was launched.

  6. Eric Webb says:

    I wonder if Julienne works for NSIDC, that might explain why she is so defensive of them.

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