John Cook’s Record Hot Year

In March, John Cook told us that an El Nino would make 2012 the hottest year ever, and 2013 even hotter.

Prediction: New Surface Temperature Record in 2013

So how did he do so far?

ENSO is higher than forecast (0.09) and GISS is much lower than forecast 0.49 for the year and tanking.

Solar max, no volcanoes, no excuses. It looks like 2012 will be one of the coldest years of the decade.

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23 Responses to John Cook’s Record Hot Year

  1. John Cook is a goose.

  2. Joseph Bastardi says:

    He is in for a surprise. The global temps will plummet in the fall to as cold as they did last winter. Keep your eye on this. The enso will fall apart in spring, He does not understand the prowess of the cold pdo, nor what the cold in the southern hemisphere is indicative of as far as the global response in the northern hemisphere once our land masses cool this fall

    They are done and if they dont know it yet, they will soon enough

    Keep your eye on Roys site and this

    • Eric Webb says:

      Thanks Joe, I totally agree with you.

    • Don Sutherland says:

      It should be noted that the YTD anomalies on GISS and NCDC using the 1981-2010 base period are nearly three times as large as that shown on the above model. GISS has a YTD anomaly of around +0.12°C. NCDC’s YTD anomaly is just under +0.12°C. Those anomalies are somewhat larger when one uses the February-July timeframe (GISS is approximately +0.15°C and NCDC is approximately 0.14°C).

      Why is there such a large discrepancy? Does the model exclude the northernmost and southernmost latitudes? Is there an algorithm issue? Is there an inherent bias in the model?

  3. Don Sutherland says:

    Even as 2012 will likely be “one of the coldest years of the decade,” it will likely be one of the 8-10 warmest years on record. The El Niño will likely result in the temperature anomaly increasing from its summer average (June-August) during the fall and winter, probably to the point where the year-end GISS anomaly would exceed last year’s figure of +0.51°C.

    The PDO has blunted some of the rise in temperatures and I’m not sure that the simple model Cook used accounts for the PDO. At the same time, the anthropogenic forcing is still growing gradually stronger given the rising atmospheric CO2, so the PDO’s ability to mitigate the warming is likely tto fade. If so, the latter part of this decade and especially the next decade could witness faster warming than has been the case over the past decade or so even as the PDO continues to head deeper into its cold cycle..

    • According to whom? James Hansen – the world’s number one climate fraudster, or Richard Muller who currently holds the #2 spot?

    • Shooter says:

      “Will likely be” – Check out the 20th century. Most of the hottest decades occured then.

    • Andy DC says:

      If someone can show me an unaltered data set from actual stations away from major metropolitan areas that demonstrates meaningful long term warming, I might be willing to take a second look. I seriously doubt any such data set exists.

  4. rocknblues81 says:

    If we haven’t seen major warming by the middle or end of the decade these people have to start rethinking what they’re doing.

    • miked1947 says:

      They already have to start rethinking their hypothesis as the AGW fantasy is now just that.
      There is no need to wait until the end of this decade as the last decade showed their failures.

      • Don Sutherland says:

        The warming signal has merely been masked by natural variability. When that variability is accounted for, the signal is still present. http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/6/4/044022/pdf/1748-9326_6_4_044022.pdf

      • miked1947 says:

        Don:
        Besides providing a link to a fairy tale that has been falsified by other physicists.
        That is a political activist statement and not a scientific statement.
        You need to get better acquainted with the real historic records. Even those that only account for the last 4 million years. That will give you a clue about natural climate variability.

      • miked1947 says:

        What real evidence do you have? You know like “Observational”? Historic records of pollen concentrations from regions around the globe! Biological activity? sediment records?
        Consensus don’t mean SQUAT.

      • Don Sutherland says:

        Do you have link to a published paper that dismisses the greenhouse effect, among other foundations of AGW?

      • miked1947 says:

        Don:
        The null hypothesis, that we are experiencing natural weather variability has not been falsified. There is no indication in the long term records that a warming signal ever existed, unless data manipulation was used in the studies.

      • Even if you assumed all of Foster and Rahmstorf’s assumptions were correct (something that realistically would be impossible to achieve), their paper still demonstrates that over 30 years the rate of warming has been ‘steady’ (no acceleration). If that trend continued we’d see less than 1.5C of additional warming by 2100. In other words, a net benefit to the planet and much less than half what the IPCC predicted in their last report…

        Of course, they must assume that warming will accelerate, something they could not demonstrate even after heroically adjusting the temperature trends to match their assumptions. For me personally, I still prefer the actual observations not “adjusted” observations.

      • Dave N says:

        “Do you have link to a published paper that dismisses the greenhouse effect, among other foundations of AGW?”

        Do you have any other strawmen? Most skeptics acknowledge the greenhouse effect.

  5. Don Sutherland

    Your knowledge of temperature in the earth is very limited. You are trying, and trying to make a tempest in a tea pot over what amounts to literally nothing.

    Here is a graph that shows the earth is no where near as warm now as it has been before. It is a graph showing temperature from 1 AD to 2000 AD. 2000 years. You can see what we are experiencing now is not the hottest ever. It was much warmer 1000 years ago during the Medieval Warm Period.

  6. Rosco says:

    El-Nino conditions usually result in hot dry weather in Eastern Australia, La-Nina brings the opposite. If Cook had any idea he would at least acknowledge this transparently obvious fact.

    2012 had the most rainfall in South Eastern Queensland/Northern NSW of any year since 1974 which saw major flooding. This is surprising since 2011 had major flooding while 2012 missed this tragedy.

    All of the major rain events of my life have been due to La-Nina while the prolonged dry spell ending in 2009 was dominated by El-Nino conditions.

    All this time CO2 has been consistently climbing upwards.

    Clearly our obsession with a trace non-reactive gas is just that – a misguided obsession – CO2 does not undergo phase change at ambient temperatures.

    Put an empty pot on the stove and it will soon be glowing red hot.

    Fill that same pot with water and it will never exceed 100 degrees C

    And that is all you need to know about climate science !!

    All the rest is negligible both in concentration and physical or chemical properties.

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