Hottest Year Ever Update

The world’s top climate experts said that an El Nino would make 2012 the hottest year ever.

The El Nino came, and 2012 has been colder than 2010 every day except for nine days – averaging 0.36 degrees below 2010.

Thank you climate experts for being completely incompetent about the climate.


About stevengoddard

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16 Responses to Hottest Year Ever Update

  1. Ray says:

    In Sept. 2009, the UKMO predicted that “about half” of the years from 2010 to 2015 would be warmer than the warmest year on record, which according to HadCRUT3 was 1998 with an anomaly of 0.517c, without actually specifying which half.
    In January 2012, they forecasted that the 2012 anomaly would be 0.48c, while according to their figures the actual was 0.326c at the end of June (although I make it 0.357c).
    In order for a the figure of 0.48c to be correct, the figure for the remainder of the year would have to average 0.6c.
    So that’s 3 down and 3 to go as far as that prediction is concerned.
    Having said that, in January they were changing their tune slightly by saying 2005 was the previous warmest year, according to the WMO average, even though not according to their own HadCRUT3 figures, so the fact that 2010 was warmer than 2005 using the WMO average, meant that they had been 1 warmer year.
    I expect them to continue “cherry picking”, until they find a measure by which their prediction proves correct.

  2. Andy DC says:

    We will adjust the data to make sure that this year’s adjusted data is even warmer than last year’s adjusted data.

  3. manicbeancounter says:

    2010 was not the warmest year on record according to Hadcrut3, but was according to GISSTEMP.
    So what did the climate scientists do to explain this anomaly?
    1. The folks at NASA hid this inconvenient fact on a graph comparing four different temperature series.
    2. Later HADCRUT4 was introduced, which used the same techniques of smearing extreme temperatures from a few Arctic Stations (including some pretty dodgy figures for Reykjavík) over a much larger area.

  4. Ray says:

    HadCRUT3 is a joint effort between the UKMO and C.R.U. , but due to different methods of calculating the annual figures they can’t even agree on the same figures.
    In the case of UKMO, the latest files show 1998 as 0.517c, 2005 as 0.474c and 2010 as 0.499c, whereas C.R.U. have them as 0.548c, 0.482c and 0.478c.
    Clearly both have 1998 as the warmest, but the MO has 2010 as warmer than 2005.
    The UKMO HadCRUT4 file has 1998 at 0.52c, and both 2005 and 2010 at 0.53c.
    The C.R.U. site doesn’t seem to have access to HadCRUT4, so I don’t know if their figures are the same.
    It would obviously suit the UKMO/CRU to retrospectively say that 1998 wasn’t the warmest after all, since that changes the short-term trends.

  5. B Buckner says:

    We are not even in an El Nino yet. It requires a three month moving average over the temp threshold to extend over 5 months. It will not be an official El Nino until January 2013 if temperatures develop as expected. Redo your chart for 2013 next year. The plot in this post is worthless.

  6. I’m waiting for David Appell’s usual asinine comment that none of this matters because thousands of scientists cannot be wrong about the greenhouse effect. 😉

  7. David Appell says:

    When did the El Nino come?

    And you are using raw UAH data; note their own caveat: “The global-average data displayed on this page have only limited quality control, can undergo unannounced changes, and so should only be used as a general guide.”

    In fact, their lower troposphere processed results show that, year-to-date, 2012 (globally) is slightly warmer than 2011 (globally).

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