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The dirty little secret about 2007 was that most of the loss of older ice occurred during the winter, not the summer. Persistent winds blew a lot of old ice out into the North Atlantic.
Since 2008, the old ice has been increasing. Last year there was an increase in two and three year old ice, so we should expect to see an increase in three and four year old ice this year.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2011/10/
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