Guest post by Joe Bastardi
This is precisely what I was bringing up in the heat of the summer when the AGW Drivellers were using the heat wave over the US, like they used the Russian summer of 2010, for their nonsensical ideas on the global temp
First came the August shot of cold.. which by itself was impressive but only 10 days long
September followed in with a 10-15 day cool period, meaning the month will turn out normal to below in the Ohio valley
August still a warm month because of the start and finish, but the cold in the middle was the first shot
September: the area of non warm grows,
Notice how the cooling is going into the areas so hot ( slightly east)
Now here is the latest forecast for the front 16 days of October because as we get into fall and toward winter, this means business
Now just where was that July heat that when the agw crowd was spouting their propaganda, I warned the cold would come hard and fast early ( hopefully you picked some of that up here, but of course my main mouthpiece on the upcoming weather is with my company, weatherbell.com)
not brain surgery, just lining up the past with the present and its certainly not CO2
But there is more. In the analog years used, Octobers ARE SUPPOSED TO BE COLD!
NOW LOOK AT THE WINTERS THAT FOLLOWED
my point here is this. THESE PEOPLE WHO ARE HAVING THE WEATHER SHUT THEIR MOUTHS about the summer heat now, like it does so often ( hurricanes tornadoes, etc) are trying to say the lack of arctic ice would cause a cold winter. What a lot of nonsense. The warm amo which is contributing to the ice melt LEADS TO THE BLOCKING, that can cause it for one. But its not a lack of ice, it’s a natural large scale event that has us in similar pattern to the 1950s which had a severe late winter in 57-58 for instance. We have a warm AMO, but the set up to the season from the pacific side of events ( what you see here is the blend of cold PDO seasons with a warm central pacific ) says that the winter would be cold anyway. It predicted the cold early fall. Not a lack of arctic ice.
By the way, this theory on this early cold started over a year ago, when I opined how major October in 2012 cold could sway people on the global warming issue before the election. As we know, a hot summer than a cold fall are not signs of anything except a hot summer and a cold fall. But the confusion caused by deception and delusion as caused a major problem with the public, The chart that has value is this:
The actual global air and sst vs co2, which is the nail in the coffin of the agw idea.. ACTUAL DATA going against their forecast over the longer term!
And by the way, their precious little el nino spike ( which is an admission it is the ocean that controls the earths temps, specifically the tropical oceans) is going to get crushed, as we are back in a nina again next year after the weak central pacific based warm event of this year. The fact is cold pdo’s do not allow prolonged major enso warm events as the warm events in cold pdos are short lived reactions to the cooling. Again the solar cycles are important, but I am just dealing with the ocean cycles here. . So before they start mouthing off about co2, let me warn you another hot summer and a more productive hurricane year from the main tropical areas is on the table for next year. This is being said well before hand, just like this step down into cold was. The east coast is long overdue for major hurricanes that the AGW crowd wants to see and blame on AGW, when in reality its simply what should happen given the climate pattern. It has nothing to do with co2, everything to do with the natural swings of nature in line with climate cycle theory..just like a cold winter would
Reblogged this on Climate Ponderings.
Reblogged this on Is it 2012 in Nevada County Yet? and commented:
Several readers have been asking me about the coming winter and fall. Some are interested in planning ahead, especially if it is going to be cold and snowy. Here is the latest from Joe Bastardi. Be sure to scroll down for the excellent graphics.
Thank you Joe. I for one am happy you’re calling for hot again next year.
And thats a perfect summary, i especially like the theory about climate responses like the warm Nino spike, which was barely there. Its logical the heat from July would be hit with a cold winter. And its already begun.
Regardless of that, we know CO2 has absolutely no influence, thats the beauty of whats occuring.
It’s as if the AGW crowd has no clue about cycles like PDO or AMO or either their agenda comes before facts, I believe it’s the latter Joe. That spread between actual temps and their predictions is really going to widen when the AMO flips!
After two pretty much snowless winters for DC, am at least hoping for more interesting weather to come.
Very interesting Joe. Thanks! Glad we’re (probably) not facing brutal cold here in the Puget sound this winter.
Here in Aus (not OZ although it sometimes seems like it) the BOM was predicting a hot and dry summer a few weeks ago when the ENSO meter briefly hit 1.
Now that it has dropped back into neutral territory they have simply faded away.
La-Nina’s are cool and wet on Aus. east coast and I haven’t put away winter gear yet – I’m still wearing long sleeve shirts and jeans and I normally abandon them in late August.
Looks to me that if things continue as they have we could have a repeat of 2010/11 and 2011/12 – Gees I hope not – 3 cool really wet summers in a row will be really depressing !
“So before they start mouthing off about co2, let me warn you another hot summer and a more productive hurricane year from the main tropical areas is on the table for next year.”
Well, when Romney wins they will always have the ‘evil’ Republican’s magical hurricane machine to blame.
Yes….please tell us when Romney is going to win, won’t you:) And also tell us when Joe Bastardi’s “brutally cold winter in the US” appears. With 2 weeks left of winter, this was another horrible call by Arctic Joe Bastardi:)
As opposed to the horrible calls by MET err all them super computer thinggys? 😆
DOH Homer. Much of the western US is having the coldest winter in several generations.
Joe do me a favor and send me your email address, I don’t have your new one since accuweather. Your NJ friend from Denville, NJ. Thanks.