The NOAA Divide By Two Factor

The official NOAA story – 85 MPH

The situation on the ground- 45 MPH

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28 Responses to The NOAA Divide By Two Factor

  1. savebyj says:

    Apparently it is their knee jerk reaction to exaggerate everything. This is going to kill people eventually because every time they do this they are going to lose credibility and then one day a really, really nasty storm will hit but no one will believe them and lives will be lost because of it. Sad.

  2. Hell_Is_Like_Newark says:

    Sustained winds are 55+ out near the water… gusts are in the 70 mph range. Light rain only. I am reading eyewitness reports from the waterfront: The surge has hit areas that I have never seen flooded before.. and I lived here during the 1992 surge that took out the PATH train. This is much, much worse.

    A good portion of Hoboken is less than 5ft above sea level. A lot of apartments are going to be flooded out.

  3. kbray in california says:

    It appears to have made landfall and disintegrated:

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

    Why are they lying to us ?

  4. Dave N says:

    The Long Island Express in 1938 hit the same areas, but much harder.. Up to 800 dead, with much less population, though of course less warning capability and less technology.
    Saxby in 1869 was similar to Sandy.

    Sadly, details of storms from the 18th century are sketchy, but this looks like a cycle of around 70 years.

    • Eric Simpson says:

      Joe Bastardi on Fox tonight said this is part of a cycle that we last experienced in the 1950s. As Joe says, this has nothing to do with global warming, but expect more and worse of the same (storms hitting the northern east coast) in the years to follow. But, Dave, it sounds like you have a really good historical sense of it.

  5. Andy DC says:

    In the last hour, Islip gusted to 77 mph and JFK 72. So Sandy is a bit stronger than Irene, but hardly unprecedented, except for the unusual track. Nothing close to sustained hurricane force winds. The tidal flooding this time is a bigger factor.

    • kbray in california says:

      My guess is the gusts were flyby turbulence from NOAA’s WP-3D Orion weather reconnaissance aircraft.

    • Eric Webb says:

      Yeah, Sandy is too broad to have much in the way, if any hurricane force sustained winds, but when you see wind gusts of 72, 77, 83, and 84 MPH, you know the sustained winds are above 45 MPH.

  6. James H. says:

    110 mph sustained winds at Mt. Washington, with gusts to 143 mph.

    • Eric Simpson says:

      Of course Mt. Washington is the windiest place in the lower 48 (or “lower 55” in Obamathink), and from Wikipedia: “For 76 years, until 2010, a weather observatory on the summit held the record for the highest wind gust directly measured at the Earth’s surface, 231 mph.”

  7. kbray in california says:

    FrankenFRAUD.

  8. GW says:

    From south shore (Great South Bay) of LI wind is very strong – from south or southeast. sky has cleared to the SE and moon is big & bright. Flooding like never before with 3 hours to go until high tide.

    It’s very bad – I thought we would get lucky and flooding wouldn’t be much worse than Irene – but it is already 2 feet higher, with 3+ hrs to go.

    • kbray in california says:

      The Battery, New York Harbor, New York
      Monday 10/29/12 3:50PM Full Moon
      Monday 10/29/12 5:45PM Moonrise
      Monday 10/29/12 5:55PM Sunset
      Monday 10/29/12 8:53PM 4.74 feet High Tide
      Tuesday 10/30/12 3:00AM 0.14 feet Low Tide

      High tide is 30 minutes from now.

  9. Chuck L says:

    Wind gusts to 70 – 90 MPH with 9 – 14′ storm surge here in metro NY. Hudson River running in the streets of Jersey City and Hoboken, 100’s of 1000’s without power. I agree, they usually exaggerate but it is very bad around here.

  10. James H. says:

    A buoy on Lake Erie, approximately 440 mi. from the center of the storm, reporting sustained winds of 45 mph (39 kts) at 10 m height. Unless that’s the highest report, I’d say sustained winds are a lot higher than that. In any case, sustained winds over Lake Erie should increase to 50 to 65 mph overnight.

  11. slimething says:

    Is the West Side Highway under water yet?

  12. Hell_Is_Like_Newark says:

    Looks like the surge is going to peak just above 13 ft.. So far the NYC subway is still dry.

    Staten Island is starting to flooded

    http://www.nyharborwebcam.com/

    people are reported to be trapped in cars and swimming down the street, trying to evacuate.. with their animals!

  13. The Iconoclast says:

    I agree it’s been overhyped. I think people compete to make it more dramatic for obvious reasons (fame, money) and the most dramatic soundbites are, similarly, given the most play.

    Looking at the various weather sites and METAR history and TAFs for LGA, EWR, TEB, BOS, PHL, etc, at FlightAware, there hasn’t been a lot of rain BUT the storm surge is high and looking at outage pages at Con Ed, NYSEG, Orange & Rockland, etc, hundreds of thousands of people are without power. The number will almost certainly rise overnight and beyond. However the forecast isn’t all that cold for tonight, 40s to 50s, so most people should be OK I think.

  14. Manhattan still isn’t under water.

  15. slimething says:

    Anthony Watts really raked Piers Corbyn over the coals in recent months, but it looks like Piers may have been more right than most.

    • No one else can forecast as far in to the future as Piers Corbyn. Is he ever wrong? Sure. But I still don’t know of anyone that is as accurate as him. And to me that’s the issue. I’ve seen Ryan Maue be wrong too. What I don’t see is people mercilessly magnifying his errors like is done to Piers Corbyn.

      Maybe these criticisms over errors should be used on the numerous times weather forecast for just 5 days ahead are wrong.

  16. Andy OZ says:

    Interesting Comparison on Aussie ABC website between the Hurricanes Sandy, Irene, Yasi and Katrina. Note – The one fatality with Cyclone Yasi was a guy who died from carbon monoxide poisoning from running a genset inside his house during the storm.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-30/hurricane-sandy-comparison-inline/4341764

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