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A few months ago, leading experts were forecasting a big El Nino for this winter. In 1998 Trenberth told us that global warming causes more El Ninos.
The recent evolution of ENSO, with a major new El Niño event underway in 1997, reinforces the evidence that the tendency for more El Niño and fewer La Niña events since the late 1970s is highly unusual and very unlikely to be accounted for solely by natural variability.
Looks like we could be in for an unprecedented third consecutive La Nina.
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