Smoking Gun That The TOBS Adjustment Is Garbage

February of 1936 was the coldest in the US since the start of the twentieth century.

13 Feb 1936 – RECORD COLD IN NORTH AMERICA New York, Wednesday.

That month had the most record minimums.

It also had the coldest average temperature, at -4C.

By contrast, July of 1936 was incredibly hot.

That month blew away all other July’s for record maximum temperatures. NOAA claims that July of 2012 was the hottest in US history, but as you can see – this year isn’t even in the top ten.

July 1936 had the second hottest average min/max temperature after 1901.

The data presents two huge problems for TOBS (time of observation bias.) The NOAA theory behind TOBS is that the very stupid observers in the past used to reset their thermometers later in the day when it was warmer, and now the very stupid observers reset their thermometers earlier in the day when it is colder. This would cause average temperatures in the past to be biased upwards, and recent temperatures to be biased downwards.

So how did 1936 manage to blow away the numbers of both record maximums and record minimums? TOBS is not a very plausible theory for explaining unusual numbers of record temperatures in either direction, even at the theoretical level – much less a year which had both record numbers of record minimums and record maximums.

NOAA depends on these bogus adjustments to keep their fraudulent US warming story alive.

About stevengoddard

Just having fun
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7 Responses to Smoking Gun That The TOBS Adjustment Is Garbage

  1. gator69 says:

    TOBS, or not TOBS, that is no longer the question. 😉

    Nice work Steven.

  2. I wonder if a few broadcast meteorologists would be willing to show the data when 2013 rolls around and NOAA makes their declaration. If there were 2 or 3 high profile ones willing to put their jobs on the line to state on TV that such a record doesn’t jibe with the data, it would probably go viral and educate viewers with a great deal of reach. It SHOULD become a story that way. If they understood it well enough, they could go into great historical detail about how this “error” is manufactured. It could be done in a way that leaves room for NOAA to correct itself, or end up as a full blown attack on NOAA by taxpayers and senators if they choose to ignore it. Good opportunity to get the truth out. I wonder if there is a list of meteorologists who would be amenable to exposing this, ones who by nature already know enough to be skeptical of AGW.

  3. DrFurst Dunaharm says:

    Those with honesty and integrity have likely already shown their mettle. We know who they are.and their “newsworthiness” has already been rescinded by the media.

    The rest are likely to follow the chuck-wagon until PUBLIC opinion turns the wagon around. Then they’ll gladly and sagely follow it the other way. Sad day to be a scientist – as has been expressed by several former astronauts.

    Maybe I’m wrong…. I certainly have grown cynical over the whole affair. I await the first “notable” meteorologist with the balls of an astronaut to restore my faith in scientists.

  4. Ivan says:

    ..and three years later:
    Record Heat in U.SA.
    Record Cold in New Zealand”
    ~1 Aug 1939

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