Real Science

Models Are Useless For Six Hours, But Perfect For 50 Years

Advertisements

E-Mail from Andy DC

Hi Steve,
I imagine you heard about the latest DC area snow fiasco.  They are already dubbing it “Snowquester”.
Just before the “storm” began, the weather models (about 10 of them) were predicting 8-12″ of snow for downtown DC.  Even the most “bearish” model predicted 5″.  Same models likewise predicted 12-18″ for western suburbs with the most bearish predicting 10″.  They shut down the government, all the schools, etc.
The net result was nothing in downtown DC, an inch of slush where I live in Greenbelt and only 2-3″ in normally snowy western suburbs like Germantown and Dulles Airport.
So we are supposed to believe that similar models that can’t make an accurate 6 hr forecast can make a 50 year forecast?  Give me a break!
Andy
Advertisements

Advertisements