PIOMAS Smoking Gun

PIOMAS is a favorite tool of alarmists – and is complete garbage.

The graph below shows PIOMAS average ice thickness, calculated by dividing their modeled ice volume by Cryosphere Today ice area.

ScreenHunter_176 Mar. 13 06.53

There is a fatal error with this data. Note how the ice used to gain more than a metre in thickness over the winter, but now it gains less than half that much.

It should be the other way around. With less thick ice cover now, the warmer water below is not as well insulated from the cold air above. This means that average ice thickness should increase more now during a winter than it did 30 years ago. Thick ice inhibits new ice formation, and thin ice facilitates it.

Temperatures have been running -35C in the Arctic this winter, and PIOMAS claims that less than half a metre of new ice has formed. That is just plain stupid. At those temperatures, half a metre of new ice would form in less than two weeks.

The US Navy shows that all of the ice in the Arctic Basin is thicker than PIOMAS average ice thickness, most of it much thicker.

ScreenHunter_177 Mar. 13 07.09

arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif (740×666)

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About stevengoddard

Just having fun
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12 Responses to PIOMAS Smoking Gun

  1. gator69 says:

    The alarmists understand ice about as well as they understand clouds, and it is made worse by their willful ignorance

  2. Robertv says:


    MSTS Arctic Shipping Operations – 1950 to 1957

  3. Lazarus says:

    The US Navy is also saying that ice is getting thinner. In fact, PIOMAS relies on the US Navy, as well as satellites, for their calculations.

  4. phodges says:

    Note how the ice used to gain more than a metre in thickness over the winter, but now it gains less than half that much.

    I.E. the large swings should be at the end.

    Basic common sense.

  5. kbray in california says:

    In short order we should see it flatline:

    Soon there will be no thickness at all…

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