Settled Science Update

The debate is over, the science is settled!

The slowdown is a bit of a mystery to climate scientists.

i.e. they are completely clueless

So the real question is where all that heat is going, if not to warm the surface. And a prime suspect is the deep ocean. Our measurements there are not good enough to confirm it absolutely, but a growing body of research suggests this may be an important part of the answer.

It isn’t going anywhere, because it doesn’t exist

Exactly why the ocean would have started to draw down extra heat in recent years is a mystery, and one we badly need to understand. But the main ideas have to do with possible shifts in winds and currents that are causing surface heat to be pulled down faster than before.

Trying to understand nonsense is a complete waste of time.

The deep-ocean theory is one of a half-dozen explanations that have been proffered for the warming plateau. Perhaps the answer will turn out to be some mix of all of them. And in any event, computer forecasts of climate change suggest that pauses in warming lasting a couple of decades should not surprise us.

What to Make of a Climate-Change Plateau – NYTimes.com

Perhaps the answer will be that we will finally be done with the biggest scientific fraud in history

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18 Responses to Settled Science Update

  1. William Baird says:

    Well, I am glad that we have sorted that out.

    Sneaky old heat – but the ‘scientists’ are on the case!

    Never underestimate the power of funding, politics and activism.

    Its what keeps this idoits in work.

  2. QV says:

    Who are the “deniers” now?
    No matter how much the evidence mounts up, they cannot accept that it is the model forecasts which are wrong, not the real temperatures.
    I don’t recall much mention of two decade pauses in warming before it happened.
    The only people who seem to have been “surprised” by the pause were those who created the models, which is strange, if they expected it all along!

    • squid2112 says:

      I don’t recall much mention of two decade pauses in warming before it happened.

      And this is easily testable. Simply look at every model output for the past 20 years. Do you see any of them predicting a two decade pause? How about any pause at all?

      NO, you don’t! … Why? .. Because the models all fail! … they have consistently shown absolutely no predictive skill, what-so-ever… Anyone telling you otherwise is flatly lying to you.

  3. Scott says:

    In the climategate emails Phil Jones said that they would have to start worying if the temperature rise pause lasted for more than 15 years, which it has. Same thing with the Ozone hole. They said it would take 15 years to “heal.” 15 years has come an past so they now just say 30 years.

    • gator69 says:

      Exactly!

      “And in any event, computer forecasts of climate change suggest that pauses in warming lasting a couple of decades should not surprise us.”

      Where the Hell did they put those goalposts now? πŸ˜†

      OK, let’s have another go. Maybe what he meant was that in hindsight, 2 or 3 of the 12,000 ‘forecasts’ had a helpful glitch. πŸ˜‰

      • Jimbo says:

        β€œAnd in any event, computer forecasts of climate change suggest that pauses in warming lasting a couple of decades should not surprise us.”

        They said 15 years and 17 years, now they say 20 years! Expect 25 or 30 years next. 😦

        “The simulations rule out (at the 95% level) zero trends for intervals of 15 yr or more, suggesting that an observed absence of warming of this duration is needed to create a discrepancy with the expected present-day warming rate.”
        http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/bams-sotc/climate-assessment-2008-lo-rez.pdf

        “A single decade of observational TLT data is therefore inadequate for identifying a slowly evolving anthropogenic warming signal. Our results show that temperature records of at least 17 years in length are required for identifying human effects on global-mean tropospheric temperature. ”
        http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2011JD016263.shtml

  4. Mohatdebos says:

    Interesting that there is no mention of solar influence or ocean oscillations!

  5. The Iconoclast says:

    So now that we’ve had a pause in warming lasting a couple decades the models have been modified such that they are now predicting it? Aces! So it’s no longer a surprise and fully accounted for. Retrospective forecasting. To paraphrase Twain, I could not feel more satisfied and at rest if the Mann, the Met Office, Hansen and Trenberth had all testified to its authenticity.

    Of course there’s no mechanism to explain how the heat got into the ocean, as I understand it, they have merely tortured some very thin data to make the claim that it is happening. Again, without the mechanism… settled science, indeed.

  6. rw says:

    Another quote from the article:

    Rarely do they mention that most of the warmest years in the historical record have occurred recently

    This is their problem. They’re only admitting that the warming trend has paused. This means that they’re forced to claim that it’s still basically hot outside, even if further heat is now somehow being siphoned off into the ocean depths. My forecast is that the still-hottest-ever fantasy will be harder and harder to sustain in the years to come.

    Should be interesting to watch the contortions as this thing collapses.

  7. jeffk says:

    Journalism doesn’t exist anymore. All that passes for news now are regurgitated press releases.
    If the NYT still did investigations, they’d surely look into James Hansen’s motives for “global warming” were likely to continue a purpose for NASA (and funding) over long term. Al Gore was likely involved.
    A reporter should be digging up those meeting minutes, the first talking points when Hansen started altering the data.

  8. Norm says:

    Awhile back I read an article that NASA reported one of its satellites found more energy was escaping the earth’s atmosphere than was ever anticipated. Since then NASA seems to have forgotten all about this finding.

  9. Andy Oz says:

    “A growing body of research..” ??
    How come they keep persecuting Al Gore just because he gains a few pounds?!
    The guy has serious personal issues to deal with!!

  10. ” And in any event, computer forecasts of climate change suggest that pauses in warming lasting a couple of decades should not surprise us.”

    It should completely surprise the author of this piece, as models cannot explain ‘pauses’ in warming for such a long period of time.

  11. Andy DC says:

    Models have no mind of their own. They are programmed by humans. Humans with an agenda and big money at stake.

  12. Luke of the D says:

    I read that and the forehead slap really hurt. Why invent some silly idea when logic can so easily explain the problem away? The stupid, it burns us!

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