Death Spiral Forecast Updated

US government experts say that Arctic will be ice-free this summer. I don’t have the credentials to disagree with such brilliant people, so I have updated the death spiral to show a likely trajectory.

ScreenHunter_18 Jun. 18 04.23

N_timeseries.png (1050×840)

ScreenHunter_19 Jun. 18 04.26BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’

About stevengoddard

Just having fun
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12 Responses to Death Spiral Forecast Updated

  1. Lawrence 13 says:

    Well I have to say with someone with even less knowledge than you, that I’m rather worried around the 20th July as it all sems to go pear shaped from then. I wonder what happens if you actually farm pears and have a good year, is ‘pear shaped’ an inappropriate term then?

  2. Jimbo says:

    Here is a blast from the past.

    Independent – Friday 27 June 2008
    Exclusive: Scientists warn that there may be no ice at North Pole this summer
    “It seems unthinkable, but for the first time in human history, ice is on course to disappear entirely from the North Pole this year.”

  3. Bob Tisdale says:

    Thanks, Steve! That made me laugh.

  4. Bill says:

    Last June it took a nose-dive at start of the month, so it could do the same this year if another arctic cyclone hits or something. It would be nice to have a year with normal sea ice melt so I don’t have to listen to the BS all summer. Of course, then we may just hear crickets.

    • miked1947 says:

      There is no such animal as “Normal” sea ice “Melt” in either the Arctic or Antarctic regions. There is variable sea ice conditions in those regions and the conditions vary over longer periods than humans have existed. There will be less ice just before the ice starts increasing each year and more ice just before the ice starts decreasing each year. The extent of those conditions is where the variations comes in and those are mostly based on ice flow patterns, due to currents and winds.

  5. Sparks says:


  6. glenncz says:

    Here are the NASA geniuses predicting mostly ice-free arctic in 2013

  7. Blade says:

    … I have updated the death spiral to show a likely trajectory.


    Best one yet!

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