Arrhenius Forecast Verification – 100 Years Later

In 1913, the father of global warming predicted 8-9C warming and that we would all be farming in Greenland.

The Pueblo Leader – Jan 28, 1913

ScreenHunter_19 Jun. 19 21.39 ScreenHunter_18 Jun. 19 21.39

The Pueblo Leader – Google News Archive Search

Here is the view from my Greenland plantation at the summer solstice. It is difficult to keep up with the crops at 1ºC.

ScreenHunter_20 Jun. 19 21.44

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14 Responses to Arrhenius Forecast Verification – 100 Years Later

  1. Brian G Valentine says:

    Arrhenius was told by people in the Royal Society that his ideas were crank, they remained in the junk science pile until other cranks like Plass came along

  2. Brian G Valentine says:

    Who would have guess 100 years ago that this fraudulent crank shit would be wrecking entire economies 100 years later?

  3. kirkmyers says:

    Arrhenisus’ theory was falsified over a century ago. Some key comments about CO2:
    A century ago, in 1909, physicist R.W. Wood disproved the thesis that greenhouses stayed warm by trapping IR. Woods set up test greenhouses using glass which reflects IR, and sheets of rock salt which does not. Woods demonstrated that greenhouses get warm by trapping warm air, not by trapping IR. The popularly believed theory about trapped IR is not how a greenhouse works. Sometimes an actual experiment is better than a century of myth. Wood’s experiment was originally published in the Philosophical magazine , 1909, vol 17, p319-320. Advocates of “Global Warming” now sometimes claim that the so-called “greenhouse effect” of the whole world is“different” from an actual greenhouse. There has been no experimental or physical evidence to support that claim, and in fact experimental evidence is all on the other side. There is no “greenhouse effect” that works by reflecting heat energy.
    In 1909, Professor Wood conducted an experiment consisting of testing the effect of the longwave infrared radiation trapped inside a greenhouse with respect to the elevated temperature inside a greenhouse during insolation. His experiment was described in an article that he published in the journal Philosophical Magazine, in 1909. (See reference [1]).

    From his experiment, Professor Wood found that the increase in temperature inside a greenhouse was not due to trapped radiation but to the blockage of convective heat transfer between the interior of the greenhouse and the open atmosphere.
    History of Greenhouse effect theory
    Navy meteorologist, Dr. Martin Hertzberg laments, “prior to the 1970′s no mainstream science journals considered the “greenhouse effect,” let alone the theory that human emissions of CO2 had any influence on the weather.” Indeed, it can be shown that back in 1967 Hansen claimed (when he was a fringe theorist) that if there was a GHE it was likely induced by dust (aerosol particulates). [1.]

    Late Ordovician Era – Ice Age with 4,400 ppm CO2
    The Carboniferous Period and the Ordovician Period were the only geological periods during the Paleozoic Era when global temperatures were as low as they are today. To the consternation of global warming proponents, the Late Ordovician Period was also an Ice Age while at the same time CO2 concentrations then were nearly 12 times higher than today– 4400 ppm. According to greenhouse theory, Earth should have been exceedingly hot. Instead, global temperatures were no warmer than today. Clearly, other factors besides atmospheric carbon influence earth temperatures and global warming.

    Ian Plimer – CO2 volume
    “Someone whom I was delighted to meet again in Australia was Professor Ian Plimer, a prominent “climate sceptic”, who is one of Abbott’s advisers. In his latest entertaining book, How To Get Expelled From School (by asking the teachers 101 awkward scientific questions about their belief in global warming), Plimer cites a vivid illustration of how great is the threat posed to the planet by man-made CO2.

    “If one imagines a length of the Earth’s atmosphere one kilometre long, 780 metres of this are made up of nitrogen, 210 are oxygen and 10 metres are water vapour (the largest greenhouse gas). Just 0.38 of a metre is carbon dioxide, to which human emissions contribute one millimetre.”

    • F. Guimaraes says:

      The Late Ordovician Period is particularly important because no matter how much we increase our emissions we’ll never get to those levels and they will not change the virtually zero influence of CO2 on climate.
      This is clearly shown by the steady increase of Outgoing Long-Wave Radiation (OLWR) in recent decades, despite the fact that the AGW/GHGs models (based on CO2) say that it’d decrease instead.
      The increase in OLWR is mainly due to the decreased cloudiness (stratospheric O^3 and HO2), and it’s probably connected with the decreasing magnetic field of Earth,
      It also should enhance the cooling during times of low solar radiations, as we are having now, and it seems that something like this happened for a brief period in 2008-2009.

    • Brian G Valentine says:

      Robert Wood was the first debunker i am aware of, but each successive decade has had their own. The idea will not go away and stay away

  4. Didn’t he end up redoing his calculations and discovered it was actually less than 2C and therefore nothing much to worry about? Hence he became the world’s first global warming denier. 🙂

  5. Andy DC says:

    It is all downhill for the sun during the next 6 months. No sign of any beach parties this “summer”.

  6. Arrhenius may have been mistaken in his 100 years old prediction, but Artistotle’s logic, is still relevant today, even though it is many hundreds of years older than Arrhenius’s ideas. See the short treatise, by Christopher Monckton :

    ” Aristotle’s fallacies are exemplified by the warming hysteria”

  7. Traitor In Chief says:

    Well, his calculations were junk, but notice that he suggested an expansion of the temperate zone would result. I notice that highest temperatures in Central America aren’t that much different than Florida. Were the tropical zone to grow, I would expect the gradient across the zone wouldn’t change dramatically. Meaning – We would likely just end up with much more farmland and habitable land.

  8. joe from Australia says:

    Arrhenius closed box experiments are crap!

  9. Billy Liar says:

    It’s a washing in Greenland! The clothes are on the line.

  10. Blade says:

    Great find! That headline from The Pueblo Leader – Jan 28, 1913

    The Coming Exodus to Siberia and Canada

    … has simply been recycled by modern day catastrophicists to state: “The Coming Exodus to Antarctica”

    Nothing has changed at all in the twisted minds of these madmen.

  11. In the ’80’s & ’90’s, various semiconductor reliability, “Arrhenius,” exponential relationships were expounded by leading engineers. This was in a Fortune 5 company. Yes, a top 5 company in 1990. The engineering executive in charge, a Swiss-German trained pH.D, never allowed Arrhenius predictions of disasters, however.

    His criticism was so simple: Just because some data fits an exponential curve fit, doesn’t mean you can predict outside the bounds of the data… exponentially.

  12. Hugh K says:

    Svante Arrhenius — Patron saint of global warming cult venerated for establishing Church of Latte Dazed Saints in 1896 (the name Svante is a masculine name that means ‘saint’). Church dogma -XXXI. ‘On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground’. Documented miracle – Converted a seminary school dropout into a tree hugging sex poodle.

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