Monsoons Firing Up In The Southwest

Slowest fire year on record, and lots of moisture on the way.

ScreenHunter_335 Jun. 26 08.27

10-Day Precipitation Outlook for the Conterminous U.S.

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12 Responses to Monsoons Firing Up In The Southwest

  1. Dave says:

    If you click on the link and scroll down, the map showing precipitation as % of normal, its is practically solid red in the west (precip only 25% of normal) outside NM and Colorado. For much of the midwest its only 50% of normal.

  2. Jambon-X says:

    5-day and now new 7-day “official” predictions of total precipitation accumulation

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml

    • tckev says:

      ‘Official’ or otherwise is immaterial, how accurate is all that matters.

    • miked1947 says:

      Jambon:
      NOAA can not predict the weather tomorrow with any accuracy. What makes you think they can get 7 days?

      • T.O.O says:

        miked,
        A casino cannot predict what the next roll of the dice will be. What makes you think they can make money?

        • miked1947 says:

          TOO:
          You are asking the wrong person that question! I KNOW why they can make money. That was part of my job!

        • miked1947 says:

          TOO:
          BTW! understanding NOAA’s activities and capabilities was also part of my job.

        • tckev says:

          The die only have 6 side and hopefully unweighted, therefore the statistics of this scenario is trivial.
          With weather not all the variables are known, the ones that are known are affected by other random effects (that can be close coupled, or loose coupled, or uncoupled) some with feedback some without, often it is a combination of all these thing. That is why knowledge of your local climate and past weather always makes for better forecasting, and statistical modeling have such a poor record.

      • Dave says:

        Good point – almost every single day for the past week they come on the radio where I am and say high of 100 degrees and then it turns out to be 93-95. They never get called on their endless string of errors.

        • miked1947 says:

          I am in the second week of hazardous weather advisories for normal conditions. All they can say is rain is possible and it may be severe! I do not worry about they claim the temperature will be.

        • It looks to me like you have a lot of rain headed your way early next week.

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