Hiding The Decline

Summer has peaked in the Arctic and the descent towards winter will begin in a few days. Every day this summer has been below normal temperature at the North Pole. This has been the coldest summer on record there.

ScreenHunter_189 Jul. 18 16.07

COI | Centre for Ocean and Ice | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

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27 Responses to Hiding The Decline

  1. shazaam says:

    Meh, You are getting ahead of the alarmists.

    That data hasn’t been “adjusted” yet. Once Mann & crew make their “peer-reviewed” “tweak” the readings, 2013 will be the hottest summer in the Arctic ever!!

    The Brawndo Blowhard Blowtorch melted all the ice, so the white stuff must be clouds and fog.

  2. Latitude says:

    he’s at it again…..idiot is hyping….nothing
    This means temps are going down…..

    Dr. Jeff Masters, July 18, 2013
    Director of Meteorology, Weather Underground

    June 2013 was the globe’s 5th warmest June since records began in 1880, according to NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated it the 2nd warmest June on record. The year-to-date period of January – June has been the 7th warmest such period on record. June 2013 global land temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record.

  3. Richard Lynch says:

    If the temperatures are going to start declining, why does the arctic melt season last until mid September every year?

    • Do you believe that an ice cube can only melt when temperatures are rising?

    • ChrisV says:

      The spring melting has been starting later in recent years and the amount of days of ice melt has also decreased in recent years. Even the National Snow & Ice Data center had to admit to that in one of their sea ice news analysis earlier this year.

  4. Richard Lynch says:

    And please explain the contradiction between this graph and Jeff Masters assertion that “The year-to-date period of January โ€“ June has been the 7th warmest such period on record.” I am not arguing with you. I really want to know.

  5. Andy DC says:

    Weather models show it staying very cold there for the next week or so.

  6. WPBHurricane05 says:

    Looking back at previous years, it looks like the more recent summers have been colder.

    • F. Guimaraes says:

      2010 was cold but only the last half of the summer, similarly 2009 in the first half. At the winter of 2009/2010 there was a powerful El Nino that must certainly have influenced the temperatures in the NP. The comparison with 2004 is important because 2003-2004 had the lowest averages in the Arctic region of this century (according to DMI). This means IMO that the Arctic is responding quite well to the lowering of radiations of the present cycle, after the maximum of 2011-2012.
      The year that is closest to 2013 for the top period between days 150 and 250 is 2004, but 2004 had more days touching the “climate” curve than this year.
      If the present trend remains for a few more weeks (~ month) it will be the coldest summer on record in the Arctic, according to DMI (since 1958).
      It is already up to day “200”.

  7. crosspatch says:

    Sea ice doesn’t melt from the top down, it melts from the bottom up (mostly). So air temperature plays less of a role than water temperature. This year’s ice cover is preventing the Arctic from receiving a lot of sunlight and warming up as much as in recent past years. Now that the sunlight is in decline, and air temperatures will start their decline in about a week, it is pretty much over for the chance for the Arctic Ocean to absorb a lot of solar energy. Even if we do have a cyclone like we did in 2012 that causes a massive ablation of ice, it will be too late for much more energy input into the system.

    In addition, it looks like most of the ice this year has been pushed against the Canadian side of the ocean and held there. We aren’t likely to see any massive loss of old ice. This means a larger accumulation of that old ice for next year. The older the ice is, the harder and fresher it is making it more difficult to melt.

    • Eric Simpson says:

      The older the ice is, the … fresher it is.

      The powering of editing! I understand, it’s like old money, you don’t lose it so easily, unlike the nouveau riche that can blow it all in a weekend in Vegas.
      “This has been the coldest summer on record there.” Well, that just proves global warming climate change. Hurry, it’s an emergency, draft a cap & trade bill to immediately cut deadly CO2 emissions by 80%!

    • Andy says:

      Crosspatch I really do think most of your posts are wishful thinking
      You said

      “Sea ice doesnโ€™t melt from the top down, it melts from the bottom up (mostly). So air temperature plays less of a role than water temperature. This yearโ€™s ice cover is preventing the Arctic from receiving a lot of sunlight”

      How can ice cover stop sunlight? Surely clouds so that? Stop talking rubbish,

      “Now that the sunlight is in decline, and air temperatures will start their decline in about a week, it is pretty much over for the chance for the Arctic Ocean to absorb a lot of solar energy.”

      Cobblers. Just check out 2007

      http://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaiceminimum/20071001_pressrelease.html

      “Another factor that conspired to accelerate the ice loss this summer was an unusual atmospheric pattern, with persistent high atmospheric pressures over the central Arctic Ocean and lower pressures over Siberia. The scientists noted that skies were fairly clear under the high-pressure cell, promoting strong melt. At the same time, the pattern of winds pumped warm air into the region. While the warm winds fostered further melt, they also helped push ice away from the Siberian shore”

      And we all know how extreme 2007 was, so stop talking bullshit about it’s all down to water temps.

      Andy

      • F. Guimaraes says:

        Have you heard about “albedo”? That’s what Crosspatch was referring to.
        Crosspatch’s post makes perfect sense to me. Even the “green curve” of the model for average temperatures predicts that the temps should go down now.
        Lower temps mean colder water and more ice.

  8. Andy says:

    “This has been the coldest summer on record there.”

    So the question is why is it starting to go once again off the last 10 years plot and seemingly a lot lower now to match the recent trend?

    Andy

    • T.O.O. says:

      Because Andy,
      The ice is extremely thin and will melt out even in cooler than normal air or water temperatures and is also more susceptible to cracking and the resultant mixing with the ocean. PIOMAS modelling (extensively verified by real world observations) has shown us how little Arctic ice volume there is and if this small volume is spread out, that means the ice is unusually thin. Looking at the last few days of extent and area graphs, I would say that we are looking at new low records for the days of early August (measured against the same days on other years).

  9. Billy Liar says:

    My name’s not Reggie: please un-spam me!

  10. Billy Liar says:

    Testing …

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