2013 Ice Free Arctic Forecasts From The World’s Top Experts

Many leading experts have predicted an ice free Arctic in about six weeks.

the Arctic will be ice-free in the summer of 2013

– John Kerry, US Secretary of State

John Kerry: We Can’t Ignore the Security Threat from Climate Change

ScreenHunter_409 Jan. 18 21.32

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013′

James Hansen : ‘This is the last chance’


“We see a tipping point occurring right before our eyes,” Hansen told the AP before the luncheon. “The Arctic is the first tipping point and it’s occurring exactly the way we said it would.”

Hansen, echoing work by other scientists, said that in five to 10 years, the Arctic will be free of sea ice in the summer.

NASA warming scientist: ‘This is the last chance’ – USATODAY.com

June 26, 2013

The alarming loss of sea ice which has grown worse each summer over the past several decades, has taken a sharp turn for the worse: this year the loss is right in the middle, the most resilient part of the ice cover. This could lead to a completely ice-free Arctic Ocean by September.

Unprecedented hole is growing in Arctic sea ice – Fairfax Climate Watch

ScreenHunter_165 Jul. 17 11.51

Why Arctic sea ice will vanish in 2013 | Sierra Club Canada

In accordance with their wishes, I have plotted the most likely Death Spiral path below.

ScreenHunter_45 Jul. 20 06.23

COI | Centre for Ocean and Ice | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

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25 Responses to 2013 Ice Free Arctic Forecasts From The World’s Top Experts

  1. There is also Katie Couric with her report on the vanishing ice about 1:20 in:

  2. Fred from Canuckistan says:

    The more they lie, the more they cheat, the better seat they get on the Eco Greenie Fear Mongering Fame & Gravy Train.

    So they lie, they cheat more, they make shit up and the media, the most clueless, gullible and desperate morons around, just take their press releases and re-print them.

    Greedy, money grubbing scientists + lazy, inept journalists = Glowball Warming.

  3. gator69 says:

    Expert activists.

  4. J Calvert N says:

    PIOMAS is somewhat ‘up’ relative to previous years. This is surely good news – but the catastrophist faithful are clearly disappointed.

    First tactic is to dismiss it by reversing the same excuses they accuse skeptics of using:
    a) ‘Weather’ is ‘climate’ when data show warming; but ‘climate’ is ‘weather’ when data show cooling;
    b) It’s only a model . . .

    Neven says: “. . . Although I knew that the bad weather for ice decrease would keep 2013 above 2011 and 2012, I didn’t quite expect such a big gap. It never hurts to emphasize that PIOMAS is a model, and even though it’s constrained by observations, the uniqueness of this season so far might cause some parameters to get sidetracked. . . Some might say I emphasize this now because as an alarmist I’m not pleased with the results . . . ”

    Catastrophists make-out the Arctic Sea Ice is headed for a terrible catastrophe. But at the same time they seem to be ‘rooting’ for it to happen – ingenuously pleased at sea-ice losses and disappointed at sea-ice gains. How would you describe a person who coud be disappointed by good news? Jonah-like?**

    They themselves don’t seem to feel terribly threatened by this looming sea-ice ‘catastrophe’. Seems to me that it’s a convenient ‘token catastrophe’ to kick-up a fuss about. (Like dog-dirt in the living room – no-one injured but a good excuse for getting rid of the dog!)

    ** Potted story of Jonah: Johah’s job in life was to warn much-hated Nineveh (now Mosul, Iraq) to repent in the face of looming catastophe. After a bit of sub-plot involving a whale, Jonah delivered the required message and then retired to a suitable vantage point to witness (with satisfaction) the catastophe unfold. But it didn’t – and Jonah was bitterly (and comically) disappointed that it hadn’t. (This is no time to go wobbly God!)

    • GregO says:

      Nice Neven quote.

      Another example of confirmation bias pervading alarmist minds. These people need to get another hobby/profession as they lack objectivity and the observational skills required of scientists, engineers, doctors and other technically high-demand pursuits.

      PIOMAS credibility is running on thin ice. I took the time to plot their numbers and the Arctic must be ice free within two years (summer 2015) if one assumes their model shows a trend following increases in Man-Made CO2.

      I don’t mean to speak for anyone or inadvertently create a straw-man argument, but hasn’t it been predicted/modeled/scenerioed (sorry!), that as the yearly Arctic ice minimum wanes from year-to-year it is going to “disappear quite suddenly”? There looks to be plenty of ice this year anyhow. When does the “disappear quite suddenly” actually start happening to sea ice? Anybody got a year?

      My prediction, based on their numbers, is that PIOMAS has entered Phase I of their model’s “Credibility Death Spiral” and will be just another laughable example of Ivory Tower pin-headedness masquerading as science by summer 2015.

      Confirmation bias. Big problem for some people. Sad really.

    • T.O.O. says:

      Shazaam says:
      July 21, 2013 at 5:12 am
      I hope they choose wisely and pack it in.

      The irony of a news report about the “Rowing team perished in the ice whilst attempting a northwest passage crossing to publicize the ice-free summer Arctic” would be delicious,

    • Earthling says:

      It makes sense to catastrophists because we “deniers” caused it, therefore we’ll be the ones who suffer when the catastrophe strikes.

  5. SMS says:

    These guys would have had better luck predicting future weather using tarot cards and chicken bones.

  6. andyadkins says:

    Low sun activity corresponds with lower stratospheric heights (Is stratospheric warming an indication of an increase in the rate at which heat is released from the lower layers of the atmosphere?)….seems like straightforward geomagnetism.

    For a while, at least, if we increase debris fields in the Pacific Oceanic Gyre, we will disturb moisture patterns (every molecular example of water vapor counts when land use changes alter albedo/lower atmospheric heights) & limit the capacity of ocean plants to absorb CO2–as well as is done in the Saragosa Sea….

    This can be accomplished by returning to the era of Underwater nuclear detonations (we could actually study how long it took for the disturbances to settle) or to Naval Warfare comparable to the 20th century or use land warfare in areas with no choice but to push the debris into the oceans

    Guy with a kite comment

  7. scizzorbill says:

    James Hansen: This is our last last chance.

  8. slimething says:

    J Calvert N,
    Would you have a link to Neven’s quote? Thanks.

  9. bulaman says:

    GPS trace of a Stall spin accident

  10. greg says:

    Maybe these guys should praise allah instead lol?

    When leaving the toilet, one is advised to leave with the right foot, and also say a prayer – “Praise be to Allah who relieved me of the filth and gave me relief.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_toilet_etiquette

  11. handjive says:

    Australian Climate Commissioner Tim Flannery predicted arctic sea ice gone by 2011.

    Climate’s Last Chance
    Author: TIM FLANNERY
    Date: 28/10/2006-

    “Before 2004, the rate of melt was such that scientists believed the icecap would melt entirely by about 2100. At the trajectory set by the new rate of melt, however, there will be no Arctic icecap in the next FIVE to 15 years.”

    Bonus Quote:
    “James Hanson, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute, is arguably the world authority on climate change.
    He predicts that we have just a decade to avert a 25-metre rise of the sea.”

    18 months & 25 metres to go!


    • Ofay Cat says:

      It that is true, then why do Al Gore and David Suzuki (Canada’s version of fat Al) live in oceanfront mansions at sea level?

      Because they know its bullcrap too.

  12. Andy DC says:

    Where has Julienne been this summer?

  13. don morris says:

    Do these people actually live in fear of climate change,or are they consciously fear mongering the masses for their own personal gain? When you see them on TV,they seem so sincere,but surely,as reasonably well educated people,they must see that none of their dire predictions ever come true.
    I can only come to two reasonable conclusions, either they ARE shilling for CC to further their own fortunes,or they are insane.

  14. Ofay Cat says:

    I truly hope these fools believe their own buIIshit because that means they are living in utter fear and loathing that the rest of us don’t give a crap. We all know its pure BS. I sleep well and have confidence that nature will do as she pleases without much help from us. Their attempts to enslave us under the yoke of petrol pigs no mo … Is collapsing faster than the European economy.

  15. Joe Numisc says:

    The only thing I agree with Joseph Stalin was his opinions of scientists. They are nothing but corrupt politicians and half-wits. They are the last people on earth you should believe. Old Uncle Joe was right in this aspect and his plan was the best on how to address this inevitable problem with these simpletons.

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