How Physics PhD’s Calculate A Trend

David Appell claimed that the US has warmed 3.2F since 1950. The graph below shows how he calculated that. He simply subtracted the NCDC 1950 temperature from the 2012 temperature.

Ignoring the fact that NCDC cheats by 1.5 degrees, he should have his PhD revoked for such spectacular statistical abuse.

ScreenHunter_195 Aug. 04 04.58

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17 Responses to How Physics PhD’s Calculate A Trend

  1. Richard T. Fowler says:

    By the same method, the contiguous U.S. also cooled by about 1.2°F between 1954 and 2010. And if you throw in an extra 1.5°F for NCDC cheating, then it’s a cooling of 2.7°F over 57 years.

    So, not the most strongest method ever devised.


    • Richard T. Fowler says:

      S/b “not the strongest method ever devised.”

    • Bill says:

      I just exchanged a few e-mails with Benny Peiser of GWPF. Tamino got bent out of shape in early June when GWPF said they agreed there had been ~0.1 degree change per decade. He based it on Met office records that showed 0.4 degrees since 1980 which gives ~0.12 degrees per decade. He used the same method as Appell. Wonder if Tamino will call out Appell?

      • NikFromNYC says:

        Indeed, add hockey stick team members Tamino and Phil Jones to the rogue’s list who are highly qualified to know exactly what they are doing when they deceive the public:

        P.S. My original versions of this debunking was mistaken in detail (I came close to his result by either shifting the date or taking a running average, prior to smoothing) and after posting a mistake and admission of it, I was banned when I tried to post a final version. His original proud blog post has changed address since then, assuming its still around.

        Tamino wrote a little print book on spotting statistical deceptions but it’s at the level of a book for kids and merely acts as a smoke screen as he presents himself as the good guy in a battle against those of us who deny massive water vapor feedback of greenhouse or any other warming influence which means the hydrosphere is explosively unstable.

  2. Norm Milliard says:

    What is the NCDC’s justification for adding 1.5 degrees to the measured temperatures? Thank you.

  3. Norm Milliard says:

    I understand what they do but as professionals what is their justification?

    • gator69 says:


    • There is no justification for it; the reason for it is deliberate fraud, and that is not justifiable.

      • Edmonton Al says:

        OK. Then, is it not possible for someone, such as Sen. Inhofe to launch an investigation?
        Being Canadian, I do not know the procedures for this sort of thing.

        • Traitor In Chief says:

          The Justice Dept in the US is led by an AG appointed by a shadowy character called the Sleezy Preezy (In this case) Since the pretendident is a criminal, known in a former life as Harrison J Bounel, he chose a fellow criminal for his AG. So, there is no law in America at this point in time.

          This is how the Sleezy Preezy can stand before cameras and decree that parts of bad law his Minions have created will not be implemented. The Preezy actually has no such power. But Dhimmi-rats don’t comprehend right vs wrong like you and I. They think law exists to persecute anyone they don’t like.

          So, the Senate, still controlled by the Dhimmi-rats, can’t/won’t take action. There would be no prosecution of the cultists because half of America’s “Government” are cult members.

        • Jimbo says:

          Here are just a few reasons for you Norm.

          [Ig]Nobel Prizes. 🙂
          Continue the gravy train. (see US annual spending on climate change – unbelievable)
          Preserve their credibility AFTER shouting WOLF numerous times.
          Don’t want to hear “Told ya sooooo” from sceptics. 🙂
          Influence international & countries policies.
          Feel important.
          Feel guilty about their comfortable lifestyles.
          In too deep and too big to fail after fooling millions.

    • Bill says:

      They have several adjustments they do. They look for differences between similar stations nearby and they do a Tobs (time of observation adjustment) for the past depending on how far from midnight the temperature collecting cycle was (something like that, here is a link for just one of the temp. records).

      There are many different temp. records and most use similar but distinct processes. Another is to look for discontinuities that may arise from changing the location a bit or a malfunction of the thermometer. Most of the adjustments have served to make the warming look worse in recent times. As Roy Spencer has pointed out, it is a bit disconcerting when most of the supposed CO2 based AGW temp. change is due to adjustments – even if those doing the adjusting think it is right.

  4. and how much since 1933?

    • miked1947 says:

      The temperatures reported by NCDC, GISS and others are the result of running models. Each run will give different results and the Al-Gore-Rhythm used results in the reduction of past temperatures and increase of current temperatures. There is NO set numbers in the Assumptions they use, therefore there can be no answer of How Much, as How Much changes with each model run.Science works best when you have Fluid Historical Records! You are able to get any answer you want.

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