Second Slowest Peak Arctic Melt Season On Record

Since July 23, Arctic ice area loss has been the second slowest on record. Ice loss has been 61% of normal, and was just slightly faster than 2001.

ScreenHunter_03 Aug. 19 04.26

Climate experts tell us that Arctic sea ice is thin, decayed, rotten, and screaming, and that it is all going to melt away quite suddenly during the next week.

ScreenHunter_319 Aug. 16 23.39

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013′

Seth Borenstein in Washington
Associated Press

December 12, 2007

“The Arctic is screaming,” said Mark Serreze, senior scientist at the government’s snow and ice data center in Boulder, Colorado.

This week, after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.”

Arctic Sea Ice Gone in Summer Within Five Years?

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20 Responses to Second Slowest Peak Arctic Melt Season On Record

  1. Jimbo says:

    Keep this lot for the record and future reference.

    Xinhua News Agency – 1 March 2008
    “If Norway’s average temperature this year equals that in 2007, the ice cap in the Arctic will all melt away, which is highly possible judging from current conditions,” Orheim said.
    [Dr. Olav Orheim – Norwegian International Polar Year Secretariat]
    __________________ – 16 November 2007
    “According to these models, there will be no sea ice left in the summer in the Arctic Ocean somewhere between 2010 and 2015.

    “And it’s probably going to happen even faster than that,” said Fortier,””
    [Professor Louis Fortier – Université Laval, Director ArcticNet]

    National Geographic – 12 December 2007
    “NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.” ”
    [Dr. Jay Zwally – NASA]

    BBC – 12 December 2007
    Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,”…….”So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”
    [Professor Wieslaw Maslowski]

    National Geographic News – 20 June 2008
    North Pole May Be Ice-Free for First Time This Summer
    “We’re actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice for the first time [in history],” David Barber, of the University of Manitoba, told National Geographic News aboard the C.C.G.S. Amundsen, a Canadian research icebreaker.
    [Dr. David Barber]

    Independent – 27 June 2008
    Exclusive: Scientists warn that there may be no ice at North Pole this summer
    “…..It is quite likely that the North Pole will be exposed this summer – it’s not happened before,” Professor Wadhams said.”
    [Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]

    Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences
    Vol. 40: 625-654 – May 2012
    The Future of Arctic Sea Ice
    “… can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. Regardless of high uncertainty associated with such an estimate, it does provide a lower bound of the time range for projections of seasonal sea ice cover…..”
    [Professor Wieslaw Maslowski]

    Yale Environment360 – 30 August 2012
    “If this rate of melting [in 2012] is sustained in 2013, we are staring down the barrel and looking at a summer Arctic which is potentially free of sea ice within this decade,”
    [Dr. Mark Drinkwater]

    Guardian – 17 September 2012
    This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates“.
    [Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]

    Sierra Club – March 23, 2013
    “For the record—I do not think that any sea ice will survive this summer. An event unprecedented in human history is today, this very moment, transpiring in the Arctic Ocean….”
    [Paul Beckwith – PhD student paleoclimatology and climatology – part-time professor]

    Financial Times Magazine – 2 August 2013
    “It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer,”
    [Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]

    • mikegeo says:

      Nice list Jimbo.
      I emailed Jay Zwally some months back and asked him if he was going to offer a public apology for issuing alarmist predictions on his Arctic melt business. He hasn’t replied to me.
      Looks like Peter Wadhams needs to be asked the same question. However, don’t any of the media who carried the first predictions ever bother to see if any of them are ever right? Is there no real journalistic ethics left?

      • Jimbo says:

        Wadhams is in danger of becoming the new Viner. If his date of 2016 fails then he will forever be ridiculed. In fact he also said “not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic” so we could start ridiculing him in September 2015 (if he fails).

    • Marian says:

      “Keep this lot for the record and future reference”

      Yeah good one Jimbo.

      It’ll be interesting when he Arctic sea doesn’t melt like they claimed. What will they do in the future? “Deny’ they made those ice melt claims. As much as they often ‘deny’ all those 1970s coming ice age scare articles that were written. 🙂

      • Jimbo says:

        Some will point to their caveats. Others, like Wadhams, is more certain and cannot escape. He has painted himself into a corner and if he’s wrong he will be ridiculed mercilessly by sceptics. Just ask Viner.

  2. miked1947 says:

    If we give them today, they have 13 days to see an ice free summer day this year! Meteorological Summer ends on Aug 31.

  3. Andy DC says:

    Reggie’s blowtorch consisted of vile, superheated spewtum coming out of his mouth.

  4. John B., M.D. says:

    Hmmm. Effect on climate? The Arctic has had the coolest summer on record (going back to 1958).

    • Disillusioned says:

      Add a meteor to the list along in addition to volcanoes and I guess we have the ‘quadruple crown’ of global cooling. (Better update your website Bob Felix.)

    • shazaam says:

      The “alarmist” crowd doesn’t dare blame the cool weather on high altitude meteor dust. No matter how convenient (or possibly accurate) such an explanation may be.

      Because that would mean that there is a simple, low-cost solution to their crisis of out-of-control global warming.

      i.e. remove the particulate emissions limits from coal fired power plants. Or launch several tons of fine particulates into the stratosphere. No need for carbon taxes or carbon credits.

      That means that the alarmistas-in-chiefs high up in their ivory towers are still sweating in the cool, temperate breezes about how to spin the lack of warming for 17 years.

      • Disillusioned says:

        All the way around they have a pickle.

        Of course, the real solution is to keep the plants running, go back to pre-2007 scrubber requirements and get rid of the added CO2 restrictions. Voilà.

        And, of course, burn all peddlers and purveyors of catastrophobia and related snake oils, at the stake. I realize that with the vast numbers, this will take years, but the fires will be good, perhaps we might accidently start some forest fires and replenish the earth with necessary nutrients in the process. 😉

  5. The Iconoclast says:

    Arctic ice extent will become unimportant in the narrative as soon as it is clearly increasing. It will join surface temperature as an obsolete measure. Now the deep ocean temperature, that’s the one to watch. Should it falter, however, rest assured that a new measure will be concocted as a reason for alarm, and even while created with as much care as possible, will be replaced again should it stumble.

    • Caleb says:

      Actually I think a failure of the arctic to thaw will be a “final straw” for a lot of people. It was a keystone in the arch of Alarmism. People who were asked “to make sacrifices to save the planet” will want their money back, and I fear that is when things may get ugly.

      • They will just lie about it like they do everything else.

        On Mon, Aug 19, 2013 at 4:10 PM, Real Science

        • Caleb says:

          They have been wearing a smiley-face mask of altruism. With that mask stripped off, a far uglier face will be appear.

        • Caleb says:

          Either I meant “will appear” or I meant “will be apparent.” Either works.

          Not that some haven’t seen through the mask all along, (or, even if fooled at first, have seen through the sham for a good long while now.)

      • Jimbo says:

        A sustained Arctic rebound would be a public relations disaster for Warmists. People will have to face up to the fact that they were taken in by a hoax.

        • Caleb says:

          I agree. I was scolded for calling the scam a hoax back in 2007, but I now sense people whole once saw me as “one of those flat-earthers” are now coming around.

          I have six years worth of pent up purple prose boiling in my pen, and am working on a tongue-lashing that ought turn politicians beet red.

  6. Robertrv says:

    The Yong Sheng, a rust-streaked Chinese vessel, is on a truly historic journey.

    the Yong Sheng’s journey, which began on 8 August from Dalian, a port in north-eastern China, to Rotterdam is being watched with fascination by politicians and scientists. They are intrigued, not by its cargo, but by its route – for the Yong Sheng is headed in the opposite direction from the Netherlands and sailing towards the Bering Strait that separates Russia and Alaska. Once through the strait, it will enter the Arctic Ocean, where it will attempt one of the most audacious voyages of modern seafaring: sailing through one of the Arctic’s fabled passages, the Northern Sea Route.

    • John B., M.D. says:

      “We always knew global warming would affect the planet first in the Arctic, but we have been floored by the rapidity of that change,” said Mark Serreze, director of the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre in Colorado.

      “Temperatures have risen dramatically. At this rate, I would expect the Arctic to be completely free of ice in summer by around 2030. That is why everyone has become so interested in the region.”

      Ice-free in summer by 2030??? The bar keeps moving.

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