My Arctic Forecast

  • 30+% concentration ice extent is near or at the minimum for the year
  • There will be a huge increase in the amount of 1+ year old ice next spring
  • The Northern Passage will not open up this year
  • Alarmists will continue to deny reality, and pretend they don’t see any of this

About stevengoddard

Just having fun
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7 Responses to My Arctic Forecast

  1. Scott says:

    Hmm, here’s my opinion:
    We’ll still see some drop in 30% DMI extent, I’m guessing to ~2009 level
    1+ year ice will be a huge increase as you say (higher minimum and more western location)
    NW probably won’t open, NE passage opening for a few weeks is more likely
    Alarmists will continue to do what they always do

    Overall, I expect most metrics to end up with us somewhere between 2009 and 2010 ice levels, even PIOMAS.


    • Temperatures are far below freezing across most of the remaining ice. We may start seeing an uptick as early as tomorrow.

      • Shazaam says:

        Never fear, somehow, someway, that extent data will be homogenized into an unrecognizable pulp.

        Gotta keep the grant money flowin’ somehow.

      • Scott says:

        Typically one can see when the minimum is happening based on the artifacts from the melt ponds going away as they all freeze up. Unfortunately, it looks like the Navy just modified their algorithms to correct for melt ponds (at least from what I can tell), making their product more accurate, but unfortunately removing that early sign of the minimum being reached.

        We did see 2005 having a Sept 1 area minimum. The area minimum was right after two days of big losses, just like last two days (I’m figuring for both that the losses were a combination of relatively normal real losses and some noise). So there is an outside chance of us being at the minimum. But give that the avg date of the area minimum is Sept 11.85 with a std dev of 6.66 days, we’d be looking at a 3-sigma event having the minimum now. I think a 2-sigma event is more reasonable, which would be Aug 30 at the earliest. Granted, this is all area, but 30% shouldn’t be too far off.

        If we see the area minimum before Aug 30, mark me down as being wrong. My simplistic analysis says a 5% chance of that happening. That said, I’d love for the simple stats to be wrong so everyone could see the problems with relying on simple stats. I don’t know what Tamino’s prediction was for this year’s minimum, but I’m guessing we’ll be well above the 95% conf interval for the result…splendid!


  2. Disillusioned says:

    I too believe that no matter what the data show, the purveyors of the Big Lie will ignore it, and many of their useful idiot believers will be largely unaware, and will dismiss it just as they are dismissing all dissenting empirical evidence today.

  3. Chewer says:

    Minimum could hit on the 24th or 25th by looking at the projected cold area growth, lack of winds and 1000 – 1005 mbar pressures around the cap…

  4. It just snowed across northeastern Alaska and the temps are way down there.

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