My Arctic Forecast : Doubling Of Arctic Ice In 2013

Arctic ice melt has dropped to almost zero. Comparing current ice vs. mid-September 2012, there is more than 100% more ice than at last year’s minimum. A rapid freeze between now and mid-September could make this number much larger.

The map below compares current ice (green and yellow) vs. mid-September 2012 (red and yellow)

ScreenHunter_419 Aug. 26 10.15

Arctic Sea-Ice Monitor

In their ongoing efforts at plausibly deniable polar ice propaganda, NSIDC describes this spectacular doubling as “won’t match last year’s melt

Leading experts say that all of the ice is going to melt in the next few hours.

the Arctic will be ice-free in the summer of 2013

– John Kerry, US Secretary of State

John Kerry: We Can’t Ignore the Security Threat from Climate Change

ScreenHunter_409 Jan. 18 21.32

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013′

James Hansen : ‘This is the last chance’


“We see a tipping point occurring right before our eyes,” Hansen told the AP before the luncheon. “The Arctic is the first tipping point and it’s occurring exactly the way we said it would.”

Hansen, echoing work by other scientists, said that in five to 10 years, the Arctic will be free of sea ice in the summer.

NASA warming scientist: ‘This is the last chance’ –

June 26, 2013

The alarming loss of sea ice which has grown worse each summer over the past several decades, has taken a sharp turn for the worse: this year the loss is right in the middle, the most resilient part of the ice cover. This could lead to a completely ice-free Arctic Ocean by September.

Unprecedented hole is growing in Arctic sea ice – Fairfax Climate Watch

ScreenHunter_165 Jul. 17 11.51

Why Arctic sea ice will vanish in 2013 | Sierra Club Canada

About stevengoddard

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17 Responses to My Arctic Forecast : Doubling Of Arctic Ice In 2013

  1. Latitude says:

    The famous Farmer’s Almanac is going to damper the mood of many man-made global warming alarmists when the book hits the shelves on Monday. They predict the 2013-2014 winter will be extremely cold.

    The book uses words like “piercing cold,” “bitterly cold,” and “biting cold” to describe the upcoming winter. The authors predict a huge winter storm during the first outdoor Super Bowl in years. The Super Bowl is scheduled at MetLife Stadium in the Meadowlands in New Jersey, and the almanac predicts a huge winter storm in the Northeast at that time.

    The almanac also predicts two-thirds of the country will experience a colder than normal winter and heavy snowfall in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and New England.

    • stewart pid says:

      My favourite is still “colder than a witches tit” from Catcher In the Rye!

    • goldminor says:

      A few days ago I noticed a comment under one of mine at WUWTs that was saying that the comet Ison is going to cross through the Earth,s path in October as it passes through to the Sun. He says that because of this we will pass through the tail of the comet debris in January. He implied that this could lead to an increase in rainfall afterwards. Any thoughts on this from anyone?

  2. shazaam says:

    Steve has just nuked any chance he ever had a winning a Nobel Peace “Prize” with that prediction.

    Though, considering the just who some of the other winners have been, that’s a win.

  3. stewart pid says:

    Beckwith could be the poster boy for nitwit forecasting!!

  4. Fred from Canuckistan says:

    Go long on long underwear futures . . . get rich off global cooling.

    I am expecting Mann, Gore, Trenberth et al will be whinging on about “Blame Canada” in the very near future.

  5. scizzorbill says:

    sometimes it’s h a r d to be an alarmist

    substitute an alarmist for a woman and ya have a song

  6. Jimbo says:

    If there is a good recovery over the coming years then these scientists who predicted an ice-free Arctic between now and 2020 will have to eat humble pie.

  7. Andy says:

    “Arctic ice melt has dropped to almost zero”

    It’s 300 Manhattan’s per day currently, how can that be zero?

    “Comparing current ice vs. mid-September 2012, there is more than 100% more ice than at last year’s minimum”

    Yes but compared to this years maximum it is a lot less. This is an apples to oranges comparison, compare dates on same date or it looks like you are over eager to grab a headline. Mind you they do that on the other side of course to, hmm ok continue ….

    “A rapid freeze between now and mid-September could make this number much larger.”

    No years show a rapid freeze between now and mid September

    in fact the freeze season seems later most years.

    Having said that the summer minimum will be a lot higher this year. It will be interesting to see how this very extensive web of thin ice will gain ice over the run up to max.

    I am guessing the polar scientists did not expect so much extent this year. General trend is still down of course……


    • Fred says:

      numbers are tough, eh Andy?

    • goldminor says:

      Andy says:
      August 26, 2013 at 5:32 pm
      No years show a rapid freeze between now and mid September
      And no year has ever shown such a cool summer, either. There is always a first time. Which is not to say that the freeze will come quite that early. However, I have been watching the ARCo data for the last week, as I have become interested in the NWP saga that is underway in the Arctic. In the last 5 days there has been quite a decrease in sst across much of the eastern Canadian Arctic coastal area, and also to the east in the direction of Greenland. The western side of Baffin Bay has cooled, as well. From the 21st till today the sst went from close to 8C down to 0C in those regions.

      • goldminor says:

        The Northwest Passage as of today is now blocked both east and west. The small boats that are attempting the transit of the passage are sitting at Cambridge Bay, where they stand ready for a westward run ‘if’ a favorable stretch of weather arrives. Now they also will have to wait for a break in the sea ice. The only other possibility is for a coast guard icebreaker to come to their aid, although the NWP blog points out that if the sea ice is to thick, then it can become too dangerous even with the aid of an icebreaker. There is also one cruise ship that is in that area, also. The eastern blockage is on the west side of the passage back to Baffin Bay. As I noted above temperatures in that area dropped sharply in the last 8 days. The last resort is all of the boaters will have to winter in the Arctic.

  8. kuhnkat says:


    you are alienating the Polar Bears with your prediction. They have been getting all excited about being able to get rid of those heavy BORING white coats and you are snowing on their hoped for sunny easter parade!!

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