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CATEGORIES:Isaac Newton Institute Seminar Series
SUMMARY:The likelihood ratio as a random variable\, with a
pplications to DNA mixtures and kinship analysis -
Klaas Slooten (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/London:20161110T121500
DTEND;TZID=Europe/London:20161110T130000
UID:TALK68924AThttp://talks.cam.ac.uk
URL:http://talks.cam.ac.uk/talk/index/68924
DESCRIPTION:In forensic genetics\, as in other areas of
forensics\, the data to be statistically evaluate
d are the result of a chance process\, and hence
one may conceive that they had been different\, re
sulting in another likelihood ratio. Thus\, one th
inks of the obtained likelihood ratio in the case
at hand as the outcome of a random variable. In t
his talk we will discuss the way to formalize thi
s intuitive notion\, and show general properties
that the resulting distributions of the LR must ha
ve. We illustrate and apply these general results
both to the evaluation of DNA mixtures and to ki
nship analysis\, two standard applications of fore
nsic DNA profiles. For mixtures\, we discuss how
model validation can be aided by investigation of
the obtained likelihood ratios. For kinship anal
ysis we observe that for any pairwise kinship com
parison\, the expected likelihood ratio does not d
epend on the allele frequencies of the loci that
are used other than through the total number of a
lleles. We compare the behavior of the LR as a fun
ction of the allele frequencies with that of the
weight of evidence\, Log(LR)\, and argue that the
WoE is better behaved. This talk is largely base
d on a series of three papers in International Jou
rnal of Legal Medicine co-authored with Thore Ege
land.

Exclusion probabilities and li
kelihood ratios with applications to kinship probl
ems\, Int. J. Legal Med. 128\, 2014\, 415---425\,<
br>Exclusion probabilities and \; likelihood r
atios with applications to mixtures\, Int. J. Lega
l Med. 130\, 2016\, 39---57\,

The likelihood ra
tio as a random variable for linked markers in kin
ship analysis\, Int. J. Legal Med. 130\, 2016\, 14
45---1456

LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
CONTACT:INI IT
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