Looking Ahead At Future IPCC Reports

IPCC climate reports can be written years ahead of time, because they don’t involve looking at any actual climate data.

What will AR-6, AR-7, AR-8, AR-9, AR-10, AR-11, AR-12, AR-13, AR-14 and AR-15 look like? Please post your ideas.

About stevengoddard

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31 Responses to Looking Ahead At Future IPCC Reports

  1. DGP says:

    My “projection” is the AR-5 is LAR. Last Assesment Report.

    • Jimbo says:

      “the last 6 years of global cooling are entirely consistent with the models, and the time period is very short.”

      “22 years of no temperature rise is seen in some models run in 2014.” 🙂

      If global surface temperature fail to rise then this is how the game will be played.

  2. Llanero says:

    AR-15 There is a 666% chance that the Cthulhu heat that has been sleeping beneath the waves in the deep ocean will rise to destroy mankind.

  3. Climatism says:

    If we get to AR-15, i’ll have to seriously consider buying one.

  4. stewart pid says:

    Its gonna be worse than they thought one way or another! Either they will be out of business or the lies will be another order of magnitude worse than the current obscene lies.

  5. By the end they will be promising that the rising heat will cause the glaciers in New York city to melt, and flood the world.

  6. Fred from Canuckistan says:

    AR6 . . . The opening para

    “Once upon a time, in a land far, far, away . . . . ”

    AR7 . . . The opening para

    “OK, so we lied, cheated and stole taxpayer money to fund our Climate Science Gravy Train, but really, you can still trust us now, really, you can! . . . “

  7. SMS says:

    By AR-105 we will have entered another ice age. But the danger of AGW will still persist, with the assessment group claiming that the ice age is just temporary and another sign of catastrophic warming.

  8. Jorge says:

    I have to agree with some statements above. This is really the last gasp here. This whole report, despite attempts to spin the contrary, was met by a big yawn. These people live in their own little bubble, but outside that bubble support for this is collapsing. Will there even be an AR-6? I doubt it.

  9. Colorado Wellington says:

    What, predicting AR-11? That’s not climate science. The models and code generators have not been run yet to compile the detailed content of any report past AR-10.

  10. kbray in california says:

    In speaking of the climate report, how is that rowing path looking from Cambridge Bay to Port Inlet that the rowers would still be on had they continued?

  11. Stefan v says:

    At some point the ptb that run this scam will be able to say “Ok, it was all crap, but seeing as how you are now living in a labour camp next to a smoking oven, what difference, at this point, does it make?”. Sometime soon after, The Lord shows up and then the cleanup begins. He works fast, and makes no mistakes, ever.

  12. Gamecock says:

    AR-10, Full Bore.

    “It has become necessary to perform geoengineering to save the earth. IPCC has arranged for rockets massed on Ascension to fire at noon, GMT, to propel earth to a wider orbit of the sun. The reduced sunlight will help keep earth’s temperature from rising.”

    Billions will die.

  13. chris y says:

    AR-11 Summary for Policy Makers (around 2050).

    “This will be the last IPCC report, as a global annihilation of the biosphere will occur within the next 2 or 3 years. This is consistent with all of the previous IPCC report dead certain prejactions.”

  14. WPBHurricane05 says:

    There won’t be an AR-15. All the alarmist vasectomy will clean up the gene pool by then.

  15. Phil Jones says:

    Note how sea level has not risen according to these bouys… someone will need to “normalize” this data for the next report… haha !!


    • Paul in Sweden says:

      The deep oceans have tragically hidden the temperature rise, hurricane activity and most alarming the sea rise.

  16. NotAGolfer says:

    AR-6: George Bush is hiding the heat in Syria.

  17. Y’all will no doubt be interested to see an advanced copy of the AR5 report which I posted on http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com in June 2010.Unfortunately this excellent draft was replaced by a monstrous mish mash of incomprehensible obscurantist verbiage , misinterpretation and deception in late Sept 2013 at the behest of, and for the support of, the politicians running the great CAGW industry scam . I see no prospect that future IPCC reports will have any closer connection to reality than the AR5 report. As Eisenhower pointed out government funded scientists are paid to deliver up to governments the science necessary to match the governments politically motivated. policies.
    “Monday, June 7, 2010
    AR5 – Summary for Policymakers 2012
    It is the habit of the IPCC to produce the Summary for Policymakers ahead of the science section of their reports so their scientists can produce the science necessary to fit the policy. Amazingly the 2012 Summary already exists in the minds of the IPCC editors and by channeling that great climate spirit Dr Norpag I was able to obtain the text of this report for the enlightenment of climate scientists in general.
    IPCC AR5 – Summary for Policymakers 2012
    Our AR4 report included the following statement:
    The understanding of anthropogenic warming and cooling influences on climate has improved since the TAR, leading to very high confidence that the global average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming, with a radiative forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] W m–2 ”
    We further estimated an increase in temperature of about 3 degrees C. for a doubling of CO2.

    We now realize that our knowledge of the factors controlling earth’s climate is much more limited than we previously thought and we are at this time unable to calculate the possible future effect of anthropogenic CO2 with any degree of certainty useful for policymakers. We apologize to those policymakers who embarked upon economically destructive carbon emission control schemes based upon our previous statements and similarly apologize to those members of the western intelligencia who spent sleepless nights worrying about the fate of the planet and their days trying to reduce their carbon footprint.
    We can however make some possibly useful comments with suggestions for policymakers .
    It is now clear that the patterns of the earths ocean current systems provide the best guide to the current state of the climate and the best clues as to developments over the next 20 – 30 years. Beyond that time span predictions are of little practical value.
    Of particular note is the negative phase of the PDO which began about ten years ago and may well last for another 20 years. This suggests that La Ninas will be more frequent than El Ninos during this time span. A general earth cooling is thus more likely as was the case from 1940 to 1970 when similar conditions prevailed. Concurrent changes in the Arctic Oscillation suggest a pattern of meridianal atmospheric flow will be more common than the more latitudinal flows of warmer periods.
    In addition the sun has entered a quiet phase with a dramatic drop in solar magnetic field strength since 2004. This reinforces the probability of a cooling phase on earth.
    Policymakers may wish to note the following possible effects on earths climate for the next 20 – 30 years. A cooler world with lower SSTs usually means a dryer world. Thus droughts will be more likely in for example California, and east Africa with possible monsoon failures in India. Northern Hemisphere growing seasons will be shorter with occasional early and late frosts and repeats of the harsh Central Asia (Mongolia) winters of 2009 – 10 . Cold European winters and cool cloudy summers will be more frequent .
    There will be a steeper temperature gradient from the tropics to the poles so that tornadoes will be more violent and more frequent in the USA, At the same time the jet stream will swing more sharply North – South thus local weather world wide will be generally more variable with occasional more northerly heat waves and more southerly unusually cold snaps. In the USA hurricanes may strike the east coast with greater frequency.
    Arctic and Antarctic sea ice may react differentially to an average global cooling. We might expect sea ice to increase in the Antarctic but the Arctic Oscillation while bringing cooler temperatures further south may also bring warmer air into the Arctic with possible loss of sea ice in that area.
    The most general advice is that world food production may be subject to occasional serious severe restriction because of cold and drought. The use of food crops for biofuels should be abandoned and stockpiles built up for possible lean times ahead. Northern cities and transportation systems should prepare for more frequent heavy snow and ice storms.
    There is no threat from the burning of fossil fuels for the forseeable future, indeed an increase in CO2 would positively help in feeding the burgeoning population.
    For the next 20 years climate science should be devoted to improving and enlarging the entire climate data base in particular with regard to solar data of all kinds. No climate model runs should be made until 2025 by which time the inputs will be more relevant to the real world”

  18. Lawrence13 says:

    Spot on Steve.

    I believe the whole climate debate has become more of a battle between white privileged western lefty Looney 5th columnist and the small but growing part of the population for who the scales have started falling from their eyes. At the moment the latter are having to stand up to some credible well meaning scientist, lefty eco loons, lefts pure and simple who want to use this essentially to get back in a metaphoric way at their own parents/countries, also are the politicians who left and right posing who want to win dwindling votes. There is also the business sector who will promote anything that makes money ie the absolute millions being made in the UK H&S scams that are rife across local governments , housing associations and so on where a hot spell is twisted totally out of all proportion by UKMO and then the NHS with the AGW narrative driving it and yet the NHS has killed tens of thousands with neglect and infections .

    All these people keep a job, earn millions upon millions, garner power via votes and just purely hate the western world. It really isn’t about the science at all it’s politics driving this. When over at Judith Curry’s blog she notes how the IPCC totally ignore the role of our sun in any climate change even though the twisted NASA actually said in Jan this year

    “There is, however, a dawning realization among researchers that even these apparently tiny variations can have a significant effect on terrestrial climate” .

    As Judy points out the IPCC ignore this very strong possibility and then blame the failure of temperatures to keep rising on all that heat deciding to try the deep oceans for a change and ignore the atmosphere-if that’s not political then I don’t know what the hell is.

    Anyhow the rest below and the link http://judithcurry.com/2013/10/01/ipcc-solar-variations-dont-matter/


    NRC Report

    There is a recent report, “The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth’s Climate,” available from the National Academies Press. A NASA press release entitled Solar Variability and Terrestrial Climate provides a good overview. The punchline is:

    There is, however, a dawning realization among researchers that even these apparently tiny variations can have a significant effect on terrestrial climate. A new report issued by the National Research Council (NRC), “The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth’s Climate,” lays out some of the surprisingly complex ways that solar activity can make itself felt on our planet.

    Note, this report was published early Jan 2013. Something else the IPCC ignored.

    JC conclusion: What a relief that the IPCC consensus has decreed with high confidence that solar variations won’t influence the 21st century climate. For a minute there, after reading the NRC Report, Svensmark and Vahrenholt, I thought us scientists might have more work to do to figure out how the Earth’s climate system works.

  19. gator69 says:

    Really, really, really bad fiction.

  20. squid2112 says:

    I agree with DGP. I mean, come on. AR-15? really? What could they possibly say? something like “It has now been 20 years since our full planet extinction, blah blah blah”, “the sun has exploded, and CO2 is still hotting things up” … sheeesh.

  21. By AR-15, they’ll be 150% confident that we’re all to blame for the warming that they still won’t have had cos it’s hiding in the ocean or under Greenland or somewhere!

  22. eyesonly says:

    At the rate things are going AR-15 may may become a decisive factor before AR-6 is ever written.

  23. katabasis1 says:

    By AR6 their computer models will be so sophisticated they will plug all of us sceptics into our own version of ‘The Matrix’.

  24. GregM says:

    It is mans fault with a certainty of:
    AR6: 100%
    AR7: 105%
    AR8: 110%
    and so on….
    Serial Science?

  25. Laz says:

    AR the 13th: Crystal Lake Boils!

  26. Billy Liar says:

    Professor John Cook, chairman of the IPCC, will pull AR6 out of his a$$. It will be lauded by the chief scientist of GISS, Dr Dana Nuttercelli. Nobody else will be the least bit interested.

    Before AR7 all climatologists will have fled the earth on the B-Ark along with concerned scientists and climate change communicators.

  27. Olaf Koenders says:

    What will they look like? Similar to the toilet paper they just released.

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