Arctic Sea Ice Controlled By Winter Winds

One of the biggest lies of the global warming scam is that Arctic sea ice has declined because warming Arctic temperatures are melting it.

This is utter nonsense. Summers in the Arctic have been getting cooler. The warming which occurred from the mid-1970s until a few years ago occurred during the winter, and the vast majority of the ice loss also occurred during the winter.

The NSIDC graphic below shows how almost all of the five+ year old ice was pushed out into the North Atlantic during the winters from 1988 to 1996. This coincided with the most positive ENSO period on record.


The disaster for alarmists is that the winds have reversed and are pushing the ice towards the Pacific side, which is driving the massive recovery in the amount of Arctic sea ice – up 60% from last summer.

Unless something changes with the winds, Arctic sea ice will continue to grow during the next few years.

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15 Responses to Arctic Sea Ice Controlled By Winter Winds

  1. Latitude says:

    and those same winds bring warmer air at the same time

  2. X says:

    “…The NSIDC graphic below shows how almost all of the five+ year old ice was pushed out into the North Atlantic during the winters from 1988 to 1996. This coincided with the most positive ENSO period on record…”
    as shown in the table below,
    The 2 strongest Nino’s since 1950 happened in 1982 and 1997, with other “smaller” ones on 1986-87, 1992 and 1994. All these episodes were strong, with maximum anomalies above 1.5 C, except the 1994 episode which was short with maximum 1.2 C.
    Now, if we understand that solar radiations were during the XX century at it’s highest peak in nearly 8,000 years,

    may be we we’ll start to understand that it’s all part of a normal cycle, most probably the fact that we’re at the beginning of a new Bond event etc.,

    • Avery Harden says:

      If you really want to at least know what the other side is saying, read thru this. I read your stuff, I challenge you to read this. This sounds more credible to me.

      • X says:

        You believe what you want, but the facts are:
        (0) All the arguments presented in the article you linked have been repeatedly debunked by Steve’s posts in this blog, e.g.
        (1) the Sun has entered a phase of minimum since 2008, probably a grand minimum similar to the Dalton or Maunder ones, with direct and profound implications for the (cooling of the) climate.
        (2) The snow cover of the NH has had (*coherently with the solar minimum fact*) successive records since the minimum began

        (3) Despite the fact that the Arctic ice extent has had pronounced minimums of ice extent in recent years, this does not mean that the same has never happened before, or that the ice is not recovering or it’s in a steady downward trend, as the comment of the link you posted implies.
        In fact, the unbiased analysis shows exactly the opposite:
        “…The first -DA summer since 1996 has lead to a 45% recovery in minimum ice extent. If we can string together two more -DA summers, or even neutral summers, we should return to the mid 1990s average by 2016…
        “… The circulatory regime asociated with the DA (dipole anomaly) is associated with (tends to precede) the AMO/NMM fluctuations. We flipped to the predominately +DA summer mode in the 1980s, but from 1997-2012, we saw a strong +DA every summer…an event not seen since the 1920-1946 period.
        If this is truly a regime change, then we could see a significant recovery in the multi-year ice pack, as more ice would get trapped in the Beaufort gyre rather than be flushed out the Fram Strait …”
        As exemplified by the fast recovery after the WWII years,
        and additional comments here,
        The NP temperatures follow closely the world’s average (the Arctic is the great “thermometer” of the world)

        (4) The Arctic ice at the peak of the winters of 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012 and this year were comparable to the maximums of the beginning of the century (2002-03), clearly indicating that the system is dynamically reacting and showing a trend to recover, you can see this in the DMI graph,

        in the cryosphere graph

        or JAXA.
        (5) Earth’s geomagnetic field is decreasing and the MNP is migrating, which affects cloud cover especially in a period of strong solar radiations as we had last century,

        (5a) There have been strong winds in NP since the end of last century, connected with the positive phase of the AMO (since 1995), the lowering of Earth’s geomagnetic field and migrating MNP,
        (6) The present AMO oscillation has been the strongest positive one since records began for this anomaly, as expected from the connection with strong solar radiations at the end of the XX century.

        and (link broken due to government shut down)
        “… As for what drives the AMO, there is a growing wealth of scientific literature that points to fluctuations in the Solar Wind and its influence on the global electric circuit/cloud microphysics as a potential electrodynamic forcing amplification… “
        (7) Etc.
        This is not even a summary, just the tip of the iceberg (pun intended).
        Note that I didn’t say a single word about the cooling SH oceans and the expanding icecap (and cooling) of the Antarctic continent.
        There is more, and more and more.
        If you want to study this “problem” seriously, you’ll probably become a skeptical like the rest of us…

        • X says:

          Ah, I forgot:
          CO2 has nothing to do with any of the facts and analyses that I listed in my previous post.

  3. Avery Harden says:

    Tell that to the folks in northern Alaska learning to deal with the new reality of a soggy tundra.

    • What bullshit. Alaska just had their shortest summer on record. Nenana ice breakup was the latest on record.

    • Latitude says:

      northern Alaska??
      it didn’t even thaw out this year!

      • X says:

        Good point, I believe Alaska will get colder (in the coming cooling climate) first than Siberia,
        ” … “mariners locked out of the Bering Sea this spring by record ice growth.” “In the first decade since 2000, the 49th state cooled 2.4 degrees Fahrenheit. That’s a “large value for a decade,” say scientists G. Wendler, L. Chen and B. Moore of the Alaska Climate Research Center at the University of Alaska Fairbanks… “

        The present position of the Arctic ice on the west will probably favor this trend.
        It probably happened also, similarly, in the last Arctic recovery (during the WWII years)… but I could be wrong because Siberia has a larger land area.

    • Stewart Pid says:

      Are you a total idiot Avery … do some reading about the past thaws and then report back to the board. The active surface layer of permafrost is always melting in the summer … have you ever taken any geography courses etc?

  4. X says:

    “Unless something changes with the winds, Arctic sea ice will continue to grow during the next few years.”
    The trend of ENSO after 2005 has changed to more La Nina’s than El Nino’s and the amplitudes have become smaller, as expected with less radiations coming from the Sun.
    Therefore, not only the winds are more favorable now but the temperatures are getting colder (as happens when the frequency of La Nina’s increases), therefore Steve’s conclusion that
    “Unless something changes with the winds, Arctic sea ice will continue to grow during the next few years.”
    is very precise and I’d add only that solar radiations are giving a very bright and clear “green sign” for the Arctic ice to continue to grow in the years ahead.

  5. Crashex says:

    The high ocean temps that resulted from the ENSO’s circulation toward the Arctic were in 2003-2006. The Arctic has been cooling that relatively warmer water down in fits and starts since then. I think 2013 is the year that showed that the cooling cycle was completed.

    The dramatic increase in 4-5 year ice this year, check out the October 2013 plot, is the result of a stronger Gyre recirculating the ice pack instead of pushing it out the Fram Strait. This has moved the “center of gravity” of the ice pack back toward the Pacific side of the region and positioned the pack to return to a more normal distribution of older ice, largely away from the Fram Strait drain. We’ll see next year if it was a one year rebound or the end of the recent trend. The recent cool PDO cycles and the waning sun would both also point toward more ice next year.

    No alarmist would have thought a 1.5 mil rebound this year was even possible. Another big step up will make their head’s explode.

  6. GeologyJim says:

    In this morning’s edition of the Daily Cageliner, you have to laugh at the obfuscations from the NSIDC weasel-word tag-team of Stroeve and Serreze

    Mark-y says “This year, the cryosphere got a little bit of a breather”. Yeah, I’ve got 2-3 inches of cryosphere all over my tomatoes.
    Then he doubles down on stupid, “We’re looking at losing that summer sea ice cover certainly in this century, and possibly in the next few decades”

    Serreze was previously absolutely certain that the summer sea ice would be all gone by … … [wait for it] … 2013. At least his latest “prediction” will post-date his retirement by several decades.

    • I sent this to the author of that POS


      You might want to look at this graph from the Danish Meteorological Institute

      Arctic ice extent is up more than 60% since last year, and is the highest in seven years.

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