95% Confidence In Arctic Ice Forecasting

Ninety-five percent of Arctic Ice forecasts were too low, increasing their confidence in their prediction skill to 95%.


September Sea Ice Outlook: June Report | ARCUS

About stevengoddard

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6 Responses to 95% Confidence In Arctic Ice Forecasting

  1. John B., M.D. says:

    95.7%, rounded up to 96%, underestimated the nadir ice coverage.

    The actual result was within the Naval Research Lab & Barthelemy error ranges.

  2. Aurora Svant says:

    MET Office’s predictions, as always, are the polar (pun intended) opposite of what happens in real life… They are probably the comic relief of this whole charade…

  3. Billy Liar says:

    O/T Atlantic Hurricane Season – it’s dead, Jim.

    Without another hurricane in the next 28 days, 2013 will tie third since 1850 for the lowest number of hurricanes; 1907 and 1914 had no hurricanes, 1895 and 1925 had 2 hurricanes, 1905 had one hurricane and one major hurricane.

  4. Robert Austin says:

    Major skeptic website kicks MET Office’s ass all over town on sea ice prediction. Where are the headlines?

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