1986 Hansen Shock Forecast : Five Degrees Warming By 2010

Sarasota Herald-Tribune – Jun 11, 1986

Dr. James E. Hansen of the Goddard Space Flight Center’s Institute for Space Studies said research by his institute showed that because of the “greenhouse effect” that results when gases prevent heat from escaping the earth’s atmosphere, global temperatures would rise early in the next century to “well above any level experienced in the past 100,000 years.”

Average global temperatures would rise by one-half a degree to one degree Fahrenheit from 1990 to 2000 if current trends are unchanged, according to Hansen’s findings. Hansen said the global temperature would rise by another 2 to 4 degrees in the following decade.

Sarasota Herald-Tribune – Google News Archive Search

Anyone who doesn’t believe that this happened is an oil industry shill.

ScreenHunter_98 Nov. 07 12.43

Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs


About stevengoddard

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8 Responses to 1986 Hansen Shock Forecast : Five Degrees Warming By 2010

  1. Steve Keohane says:

    For a visual perspective of just how silly that prediction was, see this:

  2. gator69 says:

    Dr James E Demento!

  3. Cheshirered says:

    A touch embarrassing, that.

    Dr Hansen….you’re fired.

  4. chris y says:

    Hansen is the great believer in exponential curves that he fits to a flat section of noisy data.
    The straight line you used is simply wrong. The slope of the curve in 2010 should be much steeper, since CO2 emissions have gone way up since 1986. Remember that the tipping point where Venusian runaway heating takes over is just a decade or two beyond 2010…

  5. The Iconoclast says:

    Eh he was only off by more than an order of magnitude. Nobody stopped listening to Ehrlich after he was shown to be Totally Wrong About Everything™.

  6. gary says:

    oops, er, well, shoot, ummm, drat

  7. Duff says:

    Not wanting to be picky, but Hansen’s forecast
    is in Fahrenheit but the graph with its green line are in Celsius. You need to halve the angle on the green line to avoid being about as wrong as he was.

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