Antarctica Breaks Record For Sea Ice – Opposite What Hansen Forecast

Hansen forecast peak sea ice loss around Antarctica, as measured by surface reflectance of light.

paintimage4564-1

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/downloads/Challenge_chapter2.pdf

Instead, Antarctica has had steadily increasing sea ice and a record maximum this year.

ScreenHunter_39 Nov. 15 11.01

S_stddev_timeseries.png (1050×840)

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11 Responses to Antarctica Breaks Record For Sea Ice – Opposite What Hansen Forecast

  1. Bob Greene says:

    Hansen being wrong on predictions is dog-bites-man. I keep waiting for the man-bites-dog story of him being right. Is that “man” or “mann”?

  2. BobW in NC says:

    Have read that there is supposed to be an enormous ice berg separating from the western
    Antarctic ice shelf. sorry – I don’t have a link to share.

    • X says:

      The iceberg is large because the maximum ice extent was large and it’s summer.
      Good part of the ice is relatively new, due to the dramatically variation of the Antarctic icecap from winter to summer,
      http://climate4you.com/SeaIce.htm#Southern%20Hemisphere%20Monthly%20Sea%20Ice
      The size of Antarctica in the winter is nearly *twice* the size of the continent: a “new continent” of ice grows there every winter and recent data shows that some of this ice has remained in the last summers.
      That’s why the ice extent is achieving continuous records.
      I believe the trend will continue (and intensify IMO) during the decline of the solar cycle #24.

    • X says:

      The graph that Steve posted shows the ice extent more than 2 standard deviations above the average in the last ~ 4 months and above the extents of last year. Not only the ice is showing a trend to increase, it’s showing a growing trend to increase, because the anomalies are steadily becoming larger.

  3. “It’s the ozone hole. Heat is going out the ozone hole so the south pole is cooling”

    By saying this, they are saying ozone is a stronger greenhouse gas than CO2. Ozone is decreasing is the presence of increasing CO2, it should be heating not cooling if CO2 were important.

    • X says:

      Here is a *must read* article about O3,
      http://climatechange1.wordpress.com/2013/08/11/the-turning-point/
      “… Because ozone absorbs long wave radiation from the Earth (just like CO2 but more efficiently), it heats the surrounding atmosphere, dries it and evaporates cloud cover. A change in the ozone level of the upper troposphere changes surface temperature because more solar radiation reaches the surface when there is less cloud. Ozone is carried from the stratosphere into the troposphere over the oceans on the margins of the Antarctic and the Arctic and also in the high pressure cells of the mid latitudes. These cells are stronger in winter. Change the ozone concentration of the upper troposphere and you change surface climate. The ozone concentration of the northern hemisphere troposphere has doubled over the last 50 years….”
      The problem is, the variation of O3 is linked to solar radiations and waning Earth’s magnetic field, not CO2. The Atlantic anomaly is increasing and (both) the magnetic poles are migrating (the NP much faster than the SP),
      http://westernusawx.info/forums/index.php?showtopic=33725&page=29#entry637838

  4. “Global warming is causing there to be more rain in the Southern Ocean, rain is fresh water and the fresh water is freezing on top of the sea.”

    Wrong. Sea ice is 6 feet thick. Did you get 6 feet of rain during the 6 months of Antarctic winter?

  5. “Global warming is causing there to be more wind coming off the middle of the continent, causing more sea ice.”

    Wrong. The south pole is cold, cold air sinks and blows seaward. Warming of the pole would cause the air over the south pole to sink less. But the south pole is getting colder which causes the air to sink more and blow seaward more. The reason there is more wind is because it’s getting colder. The reason there is more sea ice is because………. it’s getting colder.

    • X says:

      Yes, and there would be no increasing accumulation during summer, if it was warming or temperature were stable, as the charts show
      http://climate4you.com/SeaIce.htm#Southern%20Hemisphere%20Monthly%20Sea%20Ice
      and the increased anomalies *during the entire year* show too.
      It’s not only that we have 2 years above average now, we’re having in 2013 greater anomalies during the entire year than the corresponding periods of 2012.
      The anomalies are increasing, consistently, during the entire year, for 2 years in a row now.
      The ice is accumulating, no other phenomenon except the cooling of the region can explain that.

  6. “Global warming is causing an increase in the cyclone of wind spinning around Antarctica”

    This one is so stupid it boggles my mind. A cyclone is a vortex. A vortex is caused by rising air and adjacent air rushing in to replace it. It spins because it conserves angular momentum. Air over the south pole isn’t rising. Oh rats. No vortex. And there is a whole continent in the way. Oh rats, no cyclone.

    Calling the Southern Ocean wind a cyclone is an insult to the intelligence of a 4th grade learning disabled baboon.

  7. Andy Oz says:

    Tillbrook says nothing is changing in the Southern Ocean from a CO2 perspective.
    And yet alarmists are panicking! The disconnect is between scientific reality and alarmist imagination.

    Click to access 1400TilbrookMR1Thurs.pdf

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