Most Intense Typhoons On The Decline


By Paul Homewood


As I mentioned in an earlier post, there have been 35 typhoons with an atmospheric pressure of 895 mb or less, the figure measured for Yolanda.

The chart below plots these by year.





The almost total absence of such intense storms in the last two decades is notable.

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About stevengoddard

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4 Responses to Most Intense Typhoons On The Decline

  1. Rosco says:

    And yet Queensland Australia has had 2 category 5 cyclones in 6 years – Larry in 2006 and Yasi in 2011 perhaps the strongest recorded in Queensland.

    Anyone should know all of this is simply chance.

    One of the weakest cyclones to hit Queensland in the 20th century caused the most damage – Wanda had little wind impact but the rains caused the 1974 Australia day floods in Brisbane.

    I was born in February 1954 and shortly after SE Queensland was hit by one of the most intense cyclones to make it this far south – perhaps it’s my fault ?

    Makes as much sense as climate “science”.

  2. Andy Oz says:

    Dr Dowdy confirms that tropical storms and cyclones will become less frequent over the next century in the Southern Hemisphere. Australia’s Carbon Tax worked in record time. Emergency is over.

    Click to access 1340DowdyMR1Fri.pdf

    • Matti Salo says:

      Pasha Bulker didn’t get beached purely because of storm. Main reason for Pasha Bulker beached was that her skipper ignored warnings given by port authorities to sail out of coast line.

  3. That is a truly remarkable difference. If you take the first half of the period, the probability of such a storm occurring in a given year (lambda) is 0.774. The probability of having zero events happen 18 years in a row naturally given the previous rate is one in 1.1 million. If you take the first 41 years as a baseline, having zero occurrences 18 years in a row after that is about 1 in 1.95 million.

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