February 1936 was very similar to this month.
The summer of 1936 was the hottest on record.
Interesting….Where’s Joe Bastardi to run the full analysis on this?
NSIDC announces Feb 5, 2014 that Arctic sea ice has been growing in volume for four years running and that Antarctic sea ice is second highest in the 36 year recorded era!
I’m wondering when alarmists will STFU! Their scam is sooooo busted.
I prefer the term “attempted coup d’etat” over “scam”.
I agree. Coup d’etat is a much better description. Hopefully these new age Robespierre’s will share his fate, academically and financially if not actually.
Where’s Madame G. when you need her?
I’m hearing less and less about Arctic amplification. Why? I used to hear a lot about Arctic ice volume but not so much now, why? I used to hear a lot about IF ALL the ice in Antarctica melted, but not so much now, why? ;)
There is a 99% confidence level that we all die before we reach the age of 120 . That’s what it means.
The “science is settled”, at least with IPCC 95% confidence level (whatever the f*ck that means). Thus there is no further need to repeat their claims to the plebs. Evidence to the contrary will be treated as noise from naysayers. Obamavich is fully on side with the communist agenda. They have set up the carbon trade exchanges and created the means to syphon off trillions more taxpayer dollars either directly or via fraudulent government program’s.
The latest generation, however, have become skeptical of the alarmist agenda because the each young cohort never trust older people. Thus the seeds of destruction of the alarmists have already been sown. Skepticism is growing rapidly in Australia. It will elsewhere.
Actually, the problem for Central Valley farmers is that their water got taken from them by a federal judge, who put a baitfish ahead of human beings. Central Valley’s water-management system was designed to deal with droughts that last as long as five years, but the reservoirs that held its lifeblood got emptied into the ocean to rescue the Delta smelt.
Well now, 1936 has been adjusted down enough by those “expert” climatologists that we should now be quite safe from a blisteringly hot summer of 2014.
Based on the results of those adjustments to the historical data, I expect a cool, pleasant and balmy summer.
Interesting date “1936” it was the year after a solar minimum lasting four years, directly after a weak solar cycle, solar cycle 16.
You can clearly see the solar minimum in this graph.
“Hottest (or coldest) on record.” When you’re only looking at a 135 year time span out of 4 billion, these “records” mean nothing.
Humans could not have lived on the planet during most of those 4 billion years. However, over the last 100,000 years all of this hottest and coldest events are meaningless. Over the last 10,000 years they are meaningless. We have been around for those two periods and survived worse than we will see in my lifetime. I’m 70.
If the summer of 2014 is a repeat of 1936, Joe Romm’s head will explode.
Nah, if you trust GISS(stop laughing) then if this summer mirrors 1936, it should actually be quite cold.
“If the summer of 2014 is a repeat of 1936”
Can you IMAGINE the pleas for action if we had a really hot summer like that now? I’m sure the misanthropes would be calling for electricity usage restrictions, not to mention how such a hot summer would tax the existing electrical infrastructure we dare not improve. It would also be hailed as “proof” of CAGW.
another take on California here: http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2014-02-15/white-house-weather-practically-everywhere-being-caused-climate-change
I am more concerned that we are in a period similar to 1977-1979. Talk about miserable winters and prophecies of a new ice age.
I do not see summer 2014 being a repeat of 1936, more like a repeat of ~1950.
1. We are at or just passed solar maximum of a very weak cycle.
Cycle 16: (wwwDOT)solen.info/solar/cycl17.html
Cycle 18: (wwwDOT)solen.info/solar/cycl18.html
Cycle 24: (wwwDOT)solen.info/solar/ (This is as of today.)
PDO: See Roy Spencers: The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO): Key to the Global Warming Debate?
1936 was during a positive PDO
2014 is a NEGATIVE PDO
AMO: 1936 and 2014 are both positive
Drought correlation for positive/negative PDO/AMO (The numbers are % probability)
1936 = map C
2014 = map D
Add in a weak solar cycle, increased cloud cover. and growing ice in the Antarctic, I think you are looking at ENSO neutral, weak loopy jets and blocking highs.
More Info in my comments at WUWT:
I’m no more inclined to believe any of those explanations than I am about CO2.
Steve the climate is bounded and it oscillates: graph the last 5 million years is different than other eras 65 million yrs temp.
The climate is also chaotic. No change in just one condition will move it from one strange attractor to the other (Interglacial ===> Glacial) This is why a decrease in solar insolation of 9% since the Holocene Optimum has not dump us into a glacial or even a much cooler climate but the change from the Wisconsin Ice Age to the Holocene happened over a period of only three years.
What I have been trying to do is tease out the factors that may effect climate. This is a royal pain in the neck because current politics opposes such research… Or at least research they let us know about. Given that the CIA started looking into the possibility of glaciation in 1974 (actually 1972) and as they put it in their report “…many governments have gone to great lengths to hide their agricultural predicaments from other countries as well as from their own people…” One wonders exactly what the ‘Policymakers’ have actually been up to for the last 40 years. (More on that later)
These are the bits and pieces that at least look interesting
Major changes in the earth’s climate seem to be related to the positions of the continents. The closing of the Isthmus of Panama and the opening of Drake Passage changed the ocean circulation patterns and giving us the present climate system.
“At about 26 million years ago, the Circumpolar Current between South America and Antarctica (this time) was disrupted again by the small cratons between them getting jostled around. The glaciers melted back by about half. The Current restarted at about 14 million years and Antarctica reglaciated at this time.” – Bill Illis
GRAPH: Temperature and Geographic Changes Over the Last 45 million Years
Ice in Antarctica and Drake Passage
“…Since the global overturning circulation is apparently sensitive to wind even in regions where the ocean has eastern and western boundaries, it may be influenced by wind outside the Drake Passage latitudes. However, our results indicate that the unique geometry of the Drake Passage latitudes does make the global circulation – and perhaps the climate of the North Atlantic – especially sensitive to wind there….” Drake Passage Effect Without the Drake Passage
Processes controlling upper-ocean heat content in Drake Passage
A 16 year record of expendable bathythermograph transects across Drake Passage is used to examine variability in upper-ocean heat content that is not associated with the annual cycle. Links between upper-ocean heat content and anomalous heat fluxes, winds, two large-scale climate indices, and mesoscale eddies and meanders are examined. Results suggest that interannual variations in surface heat fluxes explain ∼5 to 10% of the variance in upper-ocean heat content. Anomalous surface heat fluxes are linked to meridional wind anomalies upstream of Drake Passage, which in turn are linked to forcing by El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). ENSO and SAM are correlated with upper-ocean heat content at near-zero lags, and statistically significant correlations occur at longer time lags as well. The impact of mesoscale eddies and meanders on upper-ocean heat content is explored with the use of a tracked eddy database. An empirical relationship is constructed relating upper-ocean heat content anomalies to eddy length scales and amplitudes. Eddies and meanders are estimated to account for more than one third of the nonannual cycle variance in Drake Passage upper-ocean heat content.
There is lots more on the subject of Drake Passage but you hardly ever see it mentioned. As RACookPE1978 says (tongue in cheek) if you extrapolate the last 2½ year trend in Antarctic Sea Ice growth by a decade you get closure of Drake Passage. He goes into some of the albedo math/possible effects HERE.
Possible Lunar/Unknown effects
It is to be noted that ‘Cyclomania’ is savaged quite out of proportion to the occasion papers and evidence, yet the oscillation in the earth’s climate over millions of years tells you there are cycles.
Speaking of cycles, there are Bond events, Heinrich and Dansgaard-Oeschger events. NOAA admits they haven’t a clue as to what causes these abrupt periodic shifts in climate. Here is one possibility.
The 1,800-year oceanic tidal cycle: A possible cause of rapid climate change
The influence of the lunar nodal cycle on Arctic climate
Jo Nova discusion on paper Long-Term Lunar Atmospheric Tides in the Southern Hemisphere
Pointer to other papers: forced gravitation oscillation between the earth, sun and the moon (Contains other links)
Clouds and Solar
Both solar and to a lesser extent clouds have been prominent so all I will mention is the difference in the graph in the draft paper compared with the finished paper.
Note the first graph shows a very distinct inflection point about the same time as the 1997-1998 El Niño
Reblogged this on wwlee4411 and commented:
Let’s wait and see what happens. You’ve been warned.
The issue isn’t the solar cycle, it’s the ocean cycle.
This summer is more likely to be like the summer of 77, since the winter so far has been almost a carbon copy of the winter of 76-77. Joe Bastardi seems to think it’s like winter of 1917-18, but 76-77 is more likely. It has matched so far right up to the famous California drought of 1976-1978. We match the ocean cycle of 1976-77 almost perfectly as well.
There was a famous heat wave in the summer of 77 too (the infamous summer of sam heatwave that blanketed NYC for most of July and into August) that led to power outages, and the hottest 4-day period in NYC history, etc. That heat wave, however, was located only in NYC and the eastern seaboard of New England. Like now, there was a warm area of the Atlantic ocean that stuck around for several months and these persistent la nina events typically produce drier/hotter areas along the Atlantic coast. The greater mid west area was generally wetter and cooler, but California remained hot and dry as mentioned above.
In the fall of 2014 we will know.
The problem is not whether it is a warm/hot summer but if it is a stable one. You only need one big hailstorm on the wrong moment . Hot dry stable summers are good wine years.
Bastardi says it’s more like 1918. He takes more into account than just US temperatures.
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