Alarmists : Busted Again

Arctic ice increased 12% in 1972, and did not drop back down to its normal size by late 1974.

ScreenHunter_177 Feb. 19 20.11

FORECAST FOR – FORECASTING – CLOUDY In the long term, climate is cooling off-or is it warming up? As for tomorrow’s weather, even the world’s biggest computer can’t sayfor sure what it will be. Forecasting ‘ A really accurate three-day weather forecast would result in savings of $86-million a year just for growersof wheat in the state of Wisconsin.’ – View Article – NYTimes.com

Now let’s look at the IPCC SAR Arctic sea ice graph, below. The lowermost circle is an approximation what “normal” ice is, based on the description above. By contrast, climate liars start their graphs in 1979 (uppermost circle) and want people to believe that is normal.

ScreenHunter_178 Feb. 19 20.15

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About stevengoddard

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24 Responses to Alarmists : Busted Again

  1. Anto says:

    I’m going to make a bold prediction here: when we have the first year of Arctic ice at or above its average minimum, the whole gig will finally be up.

  2. X says:

    The 1970’s was the peak of the last negative AMO phase,
    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1b/Amo_timeseries_1856-present.svg
    which is highly to the Arctic ice.

    • X says:

      err: … highly favorable to the Arctic ice.
      My point is, the conditions for recovery of the Arctic ice were much better 40 years ago than now, but the ice is obviously recovering nonetheless.
      The average temperatures of the NP have not changed much in the recent decades.

    • X says:

      but we could have some good surprises soon,

      The DMI Arctic temperatures show a relatively hot NP right now,
      http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

      but last year was, during the summer, spring and fall, quite cold, comparable to 2004.
      Then, having in sight that the Sun also had a pronounced slow down in 2005, we could expect the beginning of 2005 to compare well with 2014, which in fact they do- just go to the above site and click on 2005 and compare the first 50 days with the present graph.
      OTOH the year that compares better with 2014 of the whole series (IMO) is 1976, which was also a year of low solar radiations (minimum between cycles #20 and #21) and happened just 2 years before the great spike of Arctic ice 1978-79, as shown in the above graph of Steve’s post.
      Therefore, the “recovery” from the lows of 1974 continued despite the relatively “hot winter” (in the NP) of 1976.
      I credit the continuation of the recovery in part to the negative AMO and PDO of that time,

      It’s not clear in my mind yet how the Arctic ice will fare this year in comparison with 2013…

  3. omanuel says:

    Thanks, Steven, for trying to identify each deceptive act in government research agencies.

    Why are legislative oversight committees or government auditors not doing this work?

    • Gail Combs says:

      because the entire US government is corrupt!

      • omanuel says:

        Regretfully, Gail’s conclusion seems inescapable. So are the implications for post-1945 government science:

        1. An irrational cult that is
        2. Incompatible with reality
        3. Incompatible with spirituality
        4. Incompatible with democracy

        George Orwell saw this coming when he moved from London to the Scotish Isle of Jura in 1946 to start writing “Nineteen Eighty-Four.”

      • Jason Calley says:

        Gail, you are correct — but there is actually at least one good thing about the total corruption. Consider this: the world is a dangerous place, but corrupt governments keep and increase their powers by greatly inflating the dangers. Their task is to keep the common citizen in a state of fear, so that people will beg for bigger government. Pretty much everyone who reads this blog realizes how CAGW has been a perfect tool for raising fear and increasing government power. We need to remember that just as they are lying to us about CAGW, they may be lying to us about everything else as well. Is Iran evil? Are terrorists really plotting to blow up airplanes with shoe bombs? Is North Korea wishing to detonate an EMP device over America? Hmmmm…maybe, maybe not. The point is that while the world is dangerous, we have NO objective reason to believe what our official governmental sources tell us on the subject — and quite a strong reason to disbelieve them. Maybe North Korea really IS planning destriction for us, but the only way to find out is to discount what we have been told and track down the facts for ourselves.

        There is a very good possibility that much of what we fear in the world is not really that big at all. Just as CAGW is a hoax, many of the bad guys in the world may be either non-existent or just puppets our own leaders have created for frightening the sheep. Logical, fact based, verifiable distrust of the government may be the best news we have had in a long time. We can all use some good news!

        • omanuel says:

          I agree.

          They plant their own seeds of destruction

          So relax, enjoy this live re-enactment of the oldest scriptures:

          “Truth is victorious, never untruth !”

  4. Gail Combs says:

    We know we are a couple hundred years past the half-precession point marking the inception point for glaciation. Most papers I have read seem to rule out a double precession cycle for the Holocene. The paper “Can we predict the duration of an interglacial?” contains the solar insolation for 21 June at 65◦ N and CO2 for termination of several interglacials.

    Current values are insolation = 479 W m−2 and CO2 = 390 ppmv.

    MIS 7e – insolation = 463 W m−2, CO2 = 256 ppmv
    MIS 11c – insolation = 466 W m−2, CO2 = 259-265 ppmv
    MIS 13a – insolation = 500 W m−2, CO2 = 225 ppmv
    MIS 15a – insolation = 480 W m−2, CO2 = 240 ppmv
    MIS 17 – insolation = 477 W m−2, CO2 = 240 ppmv

    Despite Englebeen defending the Climastrologists fake CO2 readings, Zbigniew Jaworowski showed that early ice core measurement gave much higher readings especially if the CO2 is extracted from the whole ice sample and not just the air bubble. So that makes those CO2 reading rather suspect.

    Are we headed into glaciation? Heck if I know but given the subdued solar insolation at the possible tail end of the Holocene, the focus of science ONLY on Global Warming with the stated aim of destroying our present technological society is down right weird. Actually it strikes me as mass suicide at least for most of the peasants. This is especially true given the USA got rid of the strategic grain reserves in 1996 then ran the the grain silos dry by 2008. Now the USA is burning any excess grain as bio-fuel. The silos have now been destroyed.

    Agenda 21 with its emphasis on apartments in Transit Villages will trap the majority of humans in cities with no land and no possibility of learning survival skills.

    In other words the current US policies put us in the same position that the Little Ice Age peasants were in except there are more of us and we are completely dependent on a fossil fuel ‘Just-in-Time’ delivery system for our food.
    And GMO crops being genetically the same are therefore more vulnerable to nature.

    So one of the questions, at least in my mind is when did the USA take a U-turn from encouraging a good economy and why. I think we can pin point it to the early 1970s.

    The seventies is when we saw the start of major red tape designed to strangle the economy: EPA (1970) OSHA (1971) Equal Rights Amendment (1972) for example. At that time (1970) the labor force in manufacturing was 24%, in farming 4.6% Over 30% of labor was directly involved in building real wealth. By the last Census manufacturing was less than 9%, and farming ~1% (GDP only tracks the exchange of money and not the building of wealth BTW)

    SEE: Federal regulations have lowered real GDP growth by 2% per year since 1949 and made America 72% poorer — (wwwDOT) aei-ideas.org/2013/06/federal-regulations-have-lowered-gdp-growth-by-2-per-year/

    The UN Earth Summit in 1972 is when Maurice Strong invited activists to go home and raise He!! thereby shifting political power from the adults to easily manipulated spoiled teenagers.

    Elaine Dewar wrote in Toronto’s Saturday Night magazine:

    It is instructive to read Strong’s 1972 Stockholm speech and compare it with the issues of Earth Summit 1992. Strong warned urgently about global warming, the devastation of forests, the loss of biodiversity, polluted oceans, the population time bomb. Then as now, he invited to the conference the brand-new environmental NGOs [non-governmental organizations]: he gave them money to come; they were invited to raise he!! at home. After Stockholm, environment issues became part of the administrative framework in Canada, the U.S., Britain, and Europe.

    However the really interesting document is the 1974 CIA report:

    The 1974 CIA report: “A Study of Climatological Research as it Pertains to Intelligence Problems” certainly doesn’t give me any faith that our political leaders are concerned with the peasants survival either.


    “… Since 1972 the grain crisis has intensified…. Since 1969 the storage of grain has decreased from 600 million metric tons to less than 100 million metric tons – a 30 day supply… many governments have gone to great lengths to hide their agricultural predicaments from other countries as well as from their own people…

    pg 9
    The archaeologists and climatotologists document a rather grim history… There is considerable evidence that these empires may not have been undone by barbarian invaders but by climatic change…. has tied several of these declines to specific global cool periods, major and minor, that affected global atmospheric circulation and brought wave upon wave of drought to formerly rich agricultural lands.

    Refugees from these collapsing civilizations were often able to migrate to better lands… This would be of little comfort however,… The world is too densely populated and politically divided to accommodate mass migration….
    The Wisconsin analysis questions whether a return to these climate conditions could support a population that has grown from 1.1 billion in 1850 to 3.75 billion in 1970. The Wisconsin group predicted that the climate could not support the world’s population since technology offers no immediate solution. Further world grain reserves currently amount to less than one month; thus any delay in supplies implies mass starvation. They also contended that new crop strains could not be developed over night… Moreover they observed that agriculture would become even more energy dependent in a world of declining resources.

    Holdren and the other Malthusians from Stanford University are not alone. The US government has been behind them since BEFORE the book Human Ecology: Problems and Solutions (1973) was published recommending the USA be de-developed. The book just echoed the real thoughts of the US government of that time. Given Holdren is Obama’s Science Czar and the Malthusian drivel is still coming out of Stanford I do not see that the actual mindset in DC has changed.

    OH, and you can add the seed banks, DNA testing (and banking) of all babies born in the USA and UK, DNA banks for 4-H livestock. Not to mention the USDA providing the funds for development of Epicyte’s spermicidal corn.

  5. Andy Oz says:

    So from ARCUI, we are just below “normal” Arctic ice now?
    And that’s the reason they need trillions in carbon credits?

    • Gail Combs says:

      Depends on what you call “Normal” How Climastrologis define ‘Normal’ is all part of the CAGW HOAX.
      blockquote> Temperature and precipitation history of the Arctic 2010
      Miller et al
      Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research and Department of Geological Sciences, University of Colorado, USA et al

      …. Solar energy reached a summer maximum (9% higher than at present) ~11 ka ago and has been decreasing since then, primarily in response to the precession of the equinoxes. The extra energy elevated early Holocene summer temperatures throughout the Arctic 1-3°C above 20th century averages, enough to completely melt many small glaciers throughout the Arctic, although the Greenland Ice Sheet was only slightly smaller than at present. Early Holocene summer sea ice limits were substantially smaller than their 20th century average, and the flow of Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean was substantially greater. As summer solar energy decreased in the second half of the Holocene, glaciers re-established or advanced, sea ice expanded

      A more recent paper looking at glaciers in Norway.

      A new approach for reconstructing glacier variability based on lake sediments recording input from more than one glacier January 2012
      Kristian Vasskoga Øyvind Paaschec, Atle Nesjea, John F. Boyled, H.J.B. Birks

      …. A multi-proxy numerical analysis demonstrates that it is possible to distinguish a glacier component in the ~ 8000-yr-long record, based on distinct changes in grain size, geochemistry, and magnetic composition…. This signal is …independently tested through a mineral magnetic provenance analysis of catchment samples. Minimum glacier input is indicated between 6700–5700 cal yr BP, probably reflecting a situation when most glaciers in the catchment had melted away, whereas the highest glacier activity is observed around 600 and 200 cal yr BP. During the local Neoglacial interval (~ 4200 cal yr BP until present), five individual periods of significantly reduced glacier extent are identified at ~ 3400, 3000–2700, 2100–2000, 1700–1500, and ~ 900 cal yr BP….

      The authors of BOTH papers state that most glaciers likely didn’t exist 6,000 years ago, and the highest period of the glacial activity has been in the past 600 years. This is hardly surprising with ~9%decline in solar energy.

  6. Reblogged this on Power To The People and commented:
    Climate Change Theory Jumped the Shark a long time ago but con men like Obama keep pushing the lies.

  7. Wyguy says:

    Normal? Normal? How can a chaotic system such as climate have a “normal”? Hate the use of normal when related to climate and /or weather.

    • cdquarles says:

      In a sense, normal for deterministically chaotic systems (such as weather of which climate is a summary of the weather over an arbitrary baseline of time) would be the strange attractor(s) that most of the paths ‘orbit’. It seems for planet Earth, given the current continental distribution, we have weather that results in a bistable regime. Hothouse and ice-house. We’ve been in the ice-house mostly (since we still have persistent glaciers, I do believe that geologists would say that we’re in an ice age right now, living in an interglacial period; which means that the glaciers have mostly retreated to their minimum extents).

  8. omanuel says:

    Climatologists picked an incredibly talented engineer to misrepresent.

    The whole universe has life and breathes because

    1. The strong, short-range force of neutron repulsion is opposed by

    2. The weak, long-range gravitational force of attraction.

    Engineering completely beyond the comprehension of wannabe scientists. What an engineering feat !

  9. Andy Oz says:

    http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-19496674

    In 2012 Peter Wadhams said “Arctic melt is like adding 20
    Years of CO2.” What an alarmist dolt. Now that the ice is in an expanding cycle, then what? Peter Wadhams hypothesis is in the 🚾. And global temperatures have don nothing for almost 20 Years.

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