## Understanding Extreme Weather

Due to the lack of actual extreme weather (record low tornadoes and hurricanes in the US) climate charlatans now describe mild  weather as extreme.

NOAA declared 2012 to be the most extreme year in US history, based almost entirely on mild winter and spring temperatures, which they double counted as mild minimum and maximum temperatures.

The Weather Channel also described the record low tornado count of April 2013 as “extreme”

From record-breaking snow, cold and rainfall to a tornado extreme that may surprise you, April 2013 has been packed full of wild weather.

5 Extremes of April 2013 – weather.com

Children just won’t know what an honest educator is.

Just having fun
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### 5 Responses to Understanding Extreme Weather

1. Gail Combs says:

Good Grief, 2013 was a very mild year … until you got to the winter that is. In mid NC we only had 5 days at 90°F and one at 95°F (this is after the obligatory 2-4°F increase 24 hours after the inital readings)

But that ‘adjustment’ wasn’t good enough so now there are 15 readings at 90°F or above. Ten of those days occurred by the end of July so I would not have missed them.

As a Lab manager of a Quality lab for decades I learned the tricks for spotting ‘Flinching’ and other telltales of data fraud.

One method for catching fraud is to look at the last digit and determine the count. If the data set is large enough the numbers should be equal. Since this is high temperature you would expect either equal numbers or a tapering off with more numbers at 0,1,2 3 than at 7,8,9

There were 105 days 90 and above for the three years I looked at so that is enough data to see a trend. The data is in °F but looked funny so I also included °C.

Temperature ———- COUNT
(32.2 °C) 90 °F..——..6 ALL in 2013
(32.8 °C) 91 °F..——..41
(33.3 °C) 92 °F..——..4 ALL in 2013
(33.9 °C) 93 °F..—–..10
(34.4 °C) 94 °F..——..0
(35.0 °C) 95 °F..—–..17
(35.55 °C) 96 °F..—..10
(36.1 °C) 97 °F..——..0
(36.67 °C) 98 °F..—..16
(37.2 °C) 99 °F..-..0
(37.77 °C) 100.°F-..1

Now that distribution is weirder than snake shoes. ALL the data for 90 °F and 92 °F is in 2013 and it just so happens to add up to the extra 10 above 90 °F that wasn’t in the same data set last year.

If you discount the 90 °F and 92 °F from 2013 (since they just mysteriously appeared) you get
(32.8 °C) 91 °F
(33.9 °C) 93 °F
(35.0 °C) 95 °F
(35.55 °C) 96 °F
(36.67 °C) 98 °F
(37.77 °C) 100.°F
32.2 °C is 90 °F where as 89 °F is 31.67 °C so that might explain the promotion of 89°F to 90°F as numbers got changed back and forth from °C to °F to °C. But it does not explain all the 96 °Fs instead of 97 °F which is 36.11 °C. As I said just plain weird.

As a lab manager if I saw this data set I would be doing some surprise visits to third shift and retesting retain samples myself. I caught more than one crooked lab tech that way. Unfortunately I was the one who got fired in two cases for catching the upper levels pet lab tech who was ‘Adjusting’ numbers so bad batches would pass and ship.

Now you know why I am so cynical about the ‘Honesty’ of scientists.

If the lack of a tornado in my neighborhood means we’re having extreme weather, there isn’t a prayer we will ever return to “normal”. The only tornado I ever witnessed was real, and about the size of a small backyard shed, which was leveled by the “extreme” event. Took three different teams of “scientists” to investigate the “extreme” event and declare it real. I suppose they will declare the 51 degree temperatures today as extreme somehow too. Even though it’s exactly the average high temperature here since records have been kept. Change the definition and change the world!

3. Craig King says:

Without a definition of “extreme weather” it is impossible to measure or count it. Without a definition it is just a political statement.

4. tom0mason says:

This is an example of extreme lack of extreme climate, due in part to extreme hyping of real, and normal, weather events and the serious lack of AGW.

5. Ben says:

RE: “From record-breaking snow, cold and rainfall to a tornado extreme that may surprise you, April 2013 has been packed full of wild weather.”

Hmmm… if lack of a tornado extreme IS wild weather, I wonder if the analogy holds regarding extreme nations.

Quick! Someone declare war on Lichtenstein, Switzerland, Andorra and Monaco before its too late!