Major Hurricane Activity Is Associated With Global Cooling

One of the things I have learned from Bill Gray, is that major hurricane activity increases during cooling periods, and decreases during warming periods.

During the strong cooling from 1945-1969, there were a lot of major hurricanes. In the 1970’s, temperature trends reversed – and major hurricane activity dropped off dramatically.

ScreenHunter_977 Mar. 24 17.36

ScreenHunter_975 Mar. 24 17.18

Before NASA/NOAA erased the post-1940 cooling, the National Academy of Sciences showed that it was as large as the 1900-1940 warming

ScreenHunter_637 Mar. 15 11.33

In the late 1990’s, temperatures began to decline and major hurricane activity picked up sharply again.

ScreenHunter_976 Mar. 24 17.26

ScreenHunter_935 Mar. 24 07.31

Next topic will be what is causing the warming and cooling periods, but the key point for now is that alarmists have the relationship between major hurricanes and global warming exactly backwards.

About stevengoddard

Just having fun
This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

10 Responses to Major Hurricane Activity Is Associated With Global Cooling

  1. Gail Combs says:

    From what I have read you have several factors, one of which is the Delta T between the equator and the poles.

    The salinity factor is interesting since that ties back into the West Wind Drift aka Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the ice in the antarctic.

    Decadal Changes of Wind Stress over the Southern Ocean Associated with Antarctic Ozone Depletion.

    … the positive trend of Southern Ocean surface wind stress during two recent decades is detected, and its close linkage with spring Antarctic ozone depletion is established. The spring Antarctic ozone depletion affects the Southern Hemisphere lower-stratospheric circulation in late spring/early summer. The positive feedback involves the strengthening and cooling of the polar vortex, the enhancement of meridional temperature gradients and the meridional and vertical potential vorticity gradients, the acceleration of the circumpolar westerlies, and the reduction of the upward wave flux. This feedback loop, together with the ozone-related photochemical interaction, leads to the upward tendency of lower-stratospheric zonal wind in austral summer. …

    So there has been a change in the winds driving the current.

    Antarctic Bottom Water forms in the winter, when icy winds and temperatures freeze seawater into sea ice, expelling salt. The remaining salty, chilly water is denser than the water around it, and it sinks downward. The Cape Darnley water was some of the saltiest shelf water ever measured around the Antarctic continent. This deep current flows north, away from the continent, and transports oxygen and carbon dioxide around the planet….

    More on the Antarctic Circumpolar Current
    A decent map and discription of the currents can be found here: CHAPTER 31 OCEAN CURRENTS: TYPES AND CAUSES OF CURRENTS (Maritime Safety Information)

    The Antarctic Circumpolar Ocean Current A review of its influence on global ocean currents and climate within Antarctica and Europe James S. B. Mason

    In the sixteenth century, it was observed that surface water in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Peru and Northern Chile was unusually cold for that latitude. In 1811, Humboldt, whose name is given to the associated current, proposed that advection of cold water from southern latitudes was responsible for this lower than expected temperature…
    In the early 1980s, fossil records from deep sea drilling programmes showed that there had been shifts in the North Atlantic around the time of the last ice age ( approximately eleven thousand years ago ) which corresponded to a climate shift on land known as ‘Younger Dryas’. Studies by Hans Oeschger and others indicated that there had been very abrupt cooling around the North Atlantic and that this cooling had extended to the ocean floor. It appeared that there had been massive changes in the circulation of the North Atlantic which might have extended worldwide. Oeschger was intrigued by the rapid rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide at the end of the last ice age and that the main reservoir for this gas is the oceans.

    In 1985, Broecker and his colleagues (20) suggested that there could be two modes of ocean-atmosphere operation which, in the context of North Atlantic circulation, could explain Oeschger’s observations of rapid changes in carbon dioxide. Through their work on mapping global ocean currents and developing the ‘great conveyor belt’ theory, they realized that there was a huge mass of water moving slowly northward, near the surface of the North Atlantic which is as important for carrying heat as the much more familiar Gulf Stream. Consequently changes in this ocean conveyor belt, wherever they occurred, could have a major impact on the European climate. The circulation in the Atlantic Ocean (21) is dominated by this northward flow of upper waters ( including the Gulf Stream ) balanced by a return flow of deep water ( the conveyor ).

    Broecker suggested in 1987 (22) that there was clear evidence that changes in world climate could be sudden rather than gradual. He pointed out that non-linear effects in the atmospheric system could result in a sudden shift of the climate to a new equilibrium by altering, for example, the direction of major ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream. Subsequent work showed the situation to be more complicated …

    …the work of Broecker and others has proposed a linkage between the climates of Antarctica and Europe through worldwide thermohaline ocean circulation with the ACC as a significant driving force behind such changes…

  2. Tony B says:

    Slightly off topic:”Australia’s record hot year much more likely because of global warming: report
    Substitute “USA” for “Australia” and “global cooling” for “global warming”. We all know how that would go over with the warmists.

  3. Andy Oz says:

    Paper By Don J Easterbrook – Geologic Evidence of Recurring
    Climate Cycles and Their
    Implications for the Cause of
    Global Climate Changes – The
    Past is the Key to the Future

    Click to access easterbrook_geologic-evidence-of-recurring-climatic-cycles.pdf

    See Page 47 for Easterbrooks short term forecast.
    Alarmists worldwide will be burning effigy’s of him provided they are made from hydrogen and not carbon.

  4. Andy Oz says:

    Confirmed by BOM:
    Australian cyclones were more prevalent in low CO2 environment than in “high” CO2 environment. Cool climate means more cyclones, warm climate means less cyclones.
    “Trends in tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region (south of the equator; 90–160°E) show that the total number of cyclones appears to have decreased to the mid 1980s, and remained nearly stable since. ”

  5. Hell_Is_Like_Newark says:

    If this were the case, wouldn’t there have been a noticeable increase during the early to mid 90’s when the PDO went slightly negative and we had Pinatubo cooling the globe?

  6. gator69 says:

    Hurricanes aren’t the only thing they have backwards.

  7. Paul Pierett says:

    Actually, hurricane activity is based on sunspot activity. The periods mentioned,1945 to 69 had higher sunspot activity. The 70s Had a flat cycle with same amount of numbers as the last cycle of this past century, but it had a peak. The last two cycles not the decline and pulse in global temperatures. It was noted at a hurricane conference I attended in Greece that hurricanes are in decline. I add, so are temperatures.

    Paul Pierett

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s