Arctic Summer Outlook

There is a lot of thick ice in the western Arctic, which will be difficult to melt this summer.

That does not guarantee a high summer extent minimum however, as 2007 also started with a lot of thick ice in the western Arctic. During August/September 2007, very strong southerly winds from Siberia compacted the ice towards the Canadian side, and caused a low summer extent minimum.

So my forecast is that the Al Gore/John Kerry forecast of ice-free 2014. is not going to happen.

Do I get a Nobel Prize?

About stevengoddard

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27 Responses to Arctic Summer Outlook

  1. tom0mason says:

    I’m really hoping that the Al Gore/John Kerry forecast of ice-free Arctic come true soon so that the world can see that it does not matter one jot!

  2. Morgan says:

    Looks like John Kerry isn’t happy with his purple heart for shooting himself in the foot, he wants a Nobel prize for climate crimes as well.

  3. Alec, aka daffy duck says:

    We have to hope the winds and storms are favorable… Summer 2012 the were not!

    March 27 2012 thickness

    March 27 2014 thickness

    • Dmh says:

      The AMO was very positive in 2007,

      and also in 2012, during the summer,

      I believe this was a strong factor for the strong winds from N. Asia to the Fram Strait.
      For this reason, because N. Asia is a bit warmer and the N. Atlantic coder this year, I think the winds will be more favorable.

  4. Ragtag Media says:

    Is there HOPE for the left after all?
    MSNBC Poll Backfires, 82% Says Global Warming Not “A Threat To Their Way of Life Or Well-Being”…
    http://weaselzippers.us/181476-msnbc-poll-backfires-82-says-global-warming-not-a-threat-to-their-way-of-life-or-well-being/

  5. mwhite says:

    concentration seems better than 2007??

  6. Mike D says:

    No, you did not have a polar bear picture to support your argument, so the Nobel goes elsewhere.

    • Shazaam says:

      Unfortunately your analysis of the Nobel committee’s deep research into candidate positions and “sciency” views appears correct.

      Toto is SOL for a Nobel Prize until he gets his act together and uses drowning polar bear photos to make all his “sciency” points.

  7. ImaStinkburger says:

    gotta send out the icebreakers to make the chunks small enough to get blown out easily, or will be another bad year for the alarmists

  8. R. de Haan says:

    Let’s introduce our own Nobel Prize call it “The Frozen Dick”. We hand it out to jerks like Kerry and Gore. It’s another way to say F@#$%k You.

  9. Mom2Girls says:

    Steven and Gail, any idea what the growing season length was in the great lakes/midwest corn belt during the Maunder? I’ve heard that there were heavy frosts in June and even July in that region in the 1600’s but I can’t find any documented evidence of this, only hearsay.

    • Gail Combs says:

      Right off the top of my head all I have is this:

      Frank Lansner has been collecting historic original temperature data sets: http://hidethedecline.eu/pages/posts/original-temperatures-summary-279.php

      Tony Brown has been diving head first into old diaries and other historic information in England with a focus on information on weather, crops and such. He wrote this post at WUWT with another link to a post he made at Judith Curry’s:
      wattsupwiththat(DOT)com/2013/08/16/historic-variations-in-temperature-number-four-the-hockey-stick/
      England has the longest temperature record and shows a 2°C difference in temperature between now and the 1600s while the 1970 til now change is about 0.8°C

      Köppen climate classification, widely used, vegetation-based empirical climate classification system developed by German botanist-climatologist Wladimir Köppen. His aim was to devise formulas that would define climatic boundaries in such a way as to correspond to those of the vegetation zones (biomes) that were being mapped for the first time during his lifetime.
      (wwwDOT)britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/322068/Koppen-climate-classification

      And a map for the Midwest of the movement of the boundaries during the 20th century: link

      Zoom to 200 percent and look at the bottom graph that shows the boundaries by decade.
      The change from the 1970s to the 1980s was almost the width of Kansas. – (Width 417 miles (645 km) ) So you are looking at a movement south of about 300 miles at a minimum.

      You can then hope that Hansen hasn’t mucked up the data too bad and look at Wichita and very roughly you are looking at maybe 1.5°C. Or you can look at the historic April data for the month at a site like wunderground (Barf gag)

      year ……………Max…….Avg……Min
      70s Max. …83.4°F….66.7°F…43.7°F
      80s Max…….86.5°F….66.9°F…47.8°F

      70s Min……63.2°F….45.4°F….25.3°F
      80s Min……61.0°F….44.8°F….29.9°F

      70s Mean…72.1°F….56.3°F…37.6°F
      80s Mean…72.2°F….56.2°F…41.5°F

      Now those numbers are very interesting. It shows the mean for the two decades are almost the same, (SURPRIZE!) but the average of the maximum temp during the month is 3°F lower for the 70s and the average of the minimum temp during the month is almost 5°F lower for the 70s.

      The 1974 CIA report mentions:

      “A Study of Climatological Research as it Pertains to Intelligence Problems”
      (wwwDOT)climatemonitor.it/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/1974.pdf
      … Since 1972 the grain crisis has intensified…. Since 1969 the storage of grain has decreased from 600 million metric tons to less than 100 million metric tons – a 30 day supply… many governments have gone to great lengths to hide their agricultural predicaments from other countries as well as from their own people…

      David Arcibald just wrote a new book Twilight of Abundance and I just recieved a copy. I know David was interested in the subject of the Little Ice Age and Solar Minimums so I will check if he has any information. (I am a lot more optimistic compared to David – – as long as governments would just get the heck out of the way of human ingenuity and tell us the truth.)

    • Gail Combs says:

      Wandering though David’s book:
      A study of the Canadian wheat belt during the 1970s cooling: 1°C decline would reduce frost free days by fifteen days. A 2°C decline would keep the wheat crop from ripening.

      A 1980 study of the corn belt found 1°C decline shifted the growing conditions 144 kilometers (90 miles) south. Seems a wee bit more optimistic compared to the Köppen climate classification I linked to above.

      David also confirms my estimate of 2°C lower temperature during the Little Ice Age. (From the Central England Temperature mentioned above)

      …The temperature rise from an average of 7.8°C in 1696 to 10°C in 1732 in this record is also interesting. This is a 2.2°C rise over thirty-six years… The peak in average temperature wasn’t reached again until 1947… To reconstruct climate prior to thermometer records… The peak of the Medieval Warm Period was 2°C warmer than today and the Little Ice Age 2°C colder at its worse…

      Some of his footnotes for that chapter:
      Climate Change Impacts on the Growing Seasons of the North American Cornbelt J.E. Newman

      The Year without a Summer? World Climate in 1816 Charles Richard Harington

      Role of Plant Physiology and Dynamic Vegitation Feedbacks in the Climate Response to Low GHG Concentration Typical of the Late Stages of Previous Interglacials G.Philippon-Berthier, S.J. Vavrus, J.E. Kutzbach, and W.F. Ruddiman
      http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010GL042905/abstract
      (The paper was written to refer to other Interglacials to get around the IPCC censors. The 1974 CIA report drew extensively on the work of Kutzbach, of the University of Wisconsin. Kutzbach calculated a 39% decline in photosynthesis during the late stages of other interglacials. With addition of the CO2 liberated by man that “would be 25 percent rather than the 39 percent calculated by the Kutzbach study.” Ruddiman is best known for his “early anthropocene” hypothesis, that is that human released CO2 is all that has kept us out of glaciation that would otherwise have started.)

      Tree thermometers and commodities: Historic climate indicators
      L.M. Libby, L.J. Pandolfi
      http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0160412079900072
      Libby and Pandolfi in the 1979 St Petersburg Times had an Article “Prediction: Warming Trend until 2000, then Very Cold”

      A more detailed prediction of the current cooling was made by two researchers in the United States later in the same decade. Using tree-ring data from redwoods in King’s Canyon in California, Leona Libby and Louis Pandolfi forecast in 1970 that “by running this function into the future we have made a prediction of the climate to be expected in King’s Canyon; the prediction is that the climate will continue to deteriorate on Average, but after our present cooling-off of more than average decay in climate, there will be a temporary warming up followed by a greater rate of cooling-off.”

      Leona Libby elaborated on these research finding when she was interviewed for an article published in the St Petersburg Times

      The forecast is for continued cool weather all over the earth through the mid-1980s, with a global warming trend setting in thereafter for the rest of the century __ followed by a severe cold snap that might well last through the first half of the 21st century.

      The MET office should be hiring her.

      Global Warming idiocy from the DOD:
      An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Is Implications for United States Security Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall (2003)
      (wwwDOT)s-e-i.org/pentagon_climate_change.pdf

      Global Climate Change National Security Implications (2008) Carolyn Pumphrey
      (wwwDOT)strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub862.pdf

      • Gail Combs says:

        David’s book: Twilight of Abundance: Why Life in the 21st Century Will Be Nasty, Brutish, and Short

        http://www.amazon.com/Twilight-Abundance-Century-Nasty-Brutish/dp/1621571580

        Any mistakes made in transcription are mine because I can not type.

        • Mom2Girls says:

          Oh wow. Thanks so much! Looks like everything decreased at least one growing zone, two sometimes. Lots of corn grown in MN now would be good only for silage if that happened. I’ll have to put David’s book on my Amazon wishlist now.

          I’m struggling to remember where I read the bit about heavy frosts in the midwest during the Maunder in the middle of what is now productive growing season. If I manage to remember I’ll copy you on a thread sometimes.

  10. Andy says:

    Stop rewriting history. For all sceptics summer 2007 was only due to compaction by winds. Because it suits them to be this way.

    Actually it was a lot of clear sunny days and compaction by winds, so the ice melted and was compacted.

    “Another important aspect of this year’s extreme decline is the ice drift. As noted in earlier entries, persistent high pressure over the central Arctic Ocean led to fairly clear skies for the most of the summer, promoting melt. However, at the same time, the pattern of surface winds also led to an export of ice from the eastern Siberian side of the Arctic northward and westward. ”

    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2007/10/

    Andy

    PS You get a Nobel prize for something, but I am too nice to say what :p

    • So you are saying that ice melts in the summer? Thanks for pointing that out, because it never would have occurred to anyone otherwise.

    • Gail Combs says:

      You, Andy, are the one trying to rewrite history.

      In a September 18, 2012 video posted by NASA on its website, they admit that the Arctic cyclone, which began on August 1, “wreaked havoc on the Arctic sea ice cover” by “breaking up sea ice.” (NASA story here)

      …This year, a powerful cyclone formed off the coast of Alaska and moved on Aug. 5 to the center of the Arctic Ocean, where it churned the weakened ice cover for several days. The storm cut off a large section of sea ice north of the Chukchi Sea and pushed it south to warmer waters that made it melt entirely. It also broke vast extensions of ice into smaller pieces more likely to melt.

      “The storm definitely seems to have played a role in this year’s unusually large retreat of the ice”, Parkinson said.

      Of course Progressives are ALWAYS rewriting history like cats covering their dung.
      Another example: link

    • Snow White says:

      For some strange reason it suits “all sceptics” to fail to mention the divergent winds in the summer of 2013. I seem to recall that “record cold temperatures” received a lot of prominence at the time though:

      https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/06/24/record-cold-arctic-temperatures-drop-below-freezing-again/

      Do I win a prize for something?

  11. Tim Groves says:

    Do I get a Nobel Prize?

    I don’t see why not, James. You are outstanding in your field.

  12. Tim Groves says:

    Whoops, sorry about that. I meant “Steven”.

  13. Dmh says:

    Does a colder N. Atlanctic changes anything in this forecast? Possibly, not so strong winds?

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