Best Is Worst

After the year 2000, Best doesn’t even vaguely resemble satellite data.ScreenHunter_126 Apr. 06 05.55

http://www.woodfortrees.org/

* Disclaimer : Mosher says this is all good.

About stevengoddard

Just having fun
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31 Responses to Best Is Worst

  1. Stephen Richards says:

    Mosher ‘s going to be knocking at your door with his normal obdurate, obtuse comments. 🙂

    • Gail Combs says:

      The Mosh Pup when finally cornered said that BEST adjusts the data…..

    • -=NikFromNYC=- says:

      “Steven Mosher says:
      December 12, 2013 at 1:56 pm
      There is no such thing as raw data.
      All data comes with assumptions and theory.
      There are first reports.
      These are error prone.
      Use them and youll be wrong”

      http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/12/zeke-mosher-and-rohde-and-the-new-best-dataset/#comment-1499397

      • Gail Combs says:

        Try that excuse in an FDA audit and you will find yourself inside a jail cell.

      • gator69 says:

        Thermometers make niether assumptions nor theories. Mosher, like all leftists, thinks he can make something true just by saying it out loud. What a complete tool.

        • Gail Combs says:

          The Six’s thermometer maximum/minimum registering thermometer which can record the min/max temp. for a day was invented by James Six in 1782. (How much brain power does it take to figure out the min temp is a couple hours after dawn and the max is in the afternoon so do the darn recording of the data after supper.)

          Thomas Stevenson invented the Stevenson Screen in 1864. (There have been modifications since)

          The ‘Army’ has been writing manuals for over 3000 yrs (Xenophon on calvary for example) And the idea of meticulously recording the data of experiments has certainly been around since before Ben Franklin with the first scientific society, the Academia Secretorum Naturae founded in Naples in 1560.

          Given those facts the Mosh Pup and his buddies are covering up for a bad case of laziness and confirmation bias.

          It is SOOOoooo much easier to write a computer program to manipulate the data than it is to go through the actually original records and LOOK AT THE NOTES.

          This is what Evan M. Jones, Anthony and a crew of helpers has been doing.

          Jones really summed it up when he said: “Regarding data “adjustment”: If you shake it more than three times, yer playin’ with it.”

          This is what he has to say before that after

          link

          When they homogenize the data, why does it always wind up pasteurized?

          Well, I can tell y’all what the problem is with homogenization. Pops out of the data like a sore thumb. And the procedure is worse than a mere sticky mess that smears the errors around. That was my first impression, but there’s more to it than just that.

          Homogenization takes the average of surrounding stations. If that station’s readings do not conform to the surrounding stations, it is considered an outlier and they adjust it to conform.

          Problem is that they do not account for microsite. One out of five stations is properly sited (vis-a-vis heat sink) and they show lower readings. The result is that ~4 out of 5 of the surrounding stations is poorly sited. So the well sited is adjudged an outlier and adjusted accordingly.

          The net result is worse than a mere smear. The result is that they are adjusting the well sited stations UPwards to match the poorly sited stations rather than adjusting the poorly sited stations DOWNward to match the well sited stations.

          Now, if 4 out of 5 stations were well sited instead of badly sited, the homogenization would sort of work. Or if they adjusted the poorly sited stations downward before homogenizing (as they do with TOBS adjustment). Or even just plain dropped the badly sited stations.

          But they don’t, so it ain’t, see?

          Besides, why go to all the (large) bother of oversampling in the first place if you are going to go mush it all up by homogenizing it?

          The whole thread is a decent discussion of data mangling.

        • gator69 says:

          I have an overflowing file marked ‘Data Tampering’ that I have compiled over the past decade. I was an actual climatology student, before it was cool. 😉

          These charlatans remind me of the movie “Office Space”, where the main characters decided they could skim fractions of pennies on every transaction their company made. In the end, their ‘tiny’ scam amounted to really big money.

        • Gail Combs says:

          Gator I just heard a radio program on that exact subject. The big financial traders can SEE your trade before it gets done and buys the stock just before you and sells it to you at a fraction of a penny more.
          The FBI Is Investigating High-Frequency Traders

        • -=NikFromNYC=- says:

          The pristine Grand Canyon gets blended into nearby Phoenix, terribly:

        • gator69 says:

          Hey Gail! I saw the author of “Flash Boys”, Michael Lewis, interviewed a few days ago. And now that you mention it, the scams are similar. Life imitating art.

        • Gail Combs says:

          gator,
          There is a lot of ‘Fiction’ out there that is thinly disguised truth made into an entertaining story. From the blurb on Amazon that is what “Flash Boys” is. A warning about what is really going on.

          When you think about it. YOU never do the actual “BUY” in the stockmarket it is ALWAYS through an intermediary so there is lots of room for fraud.

          http://www.amazon.com/Flash-Boys-Wall-Street-Revolt/dp/0393244660

        • gator69 says:

          PS – If you have not seen it, you must. Most especially if you ever been a corporate cubicle monkey.

          That used to be my gig, the corporate world, until the Dodd Frank Act cleared out entire departments at the bank where I worked. I was one of the last to go. Since last summer I have been retraining and now am working with a new start up company just a mile down the road from my property. Jobs in my county are scarce, good jobs even more so. I heard about this venture, contacted the investors and landed a sweet deal. My commute will be 79 miles shorter, and infinitely better.

          Now my only contact with urbanites is on a voluntary basis.

        • Dave N says:

          Perhaps he means that one assumes the thermometers are functioning correctly (and/or people are reading them correctly); or in the case of NCDC, they assume the complete opposite.

          On the other hand, when reading comments that are apparently incoherent, have multiple punctuation issues, and are often devoid of any explanation, one might assume that said comments are not worth reading.

        • Brian H says:

          Gail, a recent 60 minutes program documented the solution. An analyst with Royal Bank noticed his trades got part-filled, then bumped in price for the balance, routinely. He tracked the front-runners who did the skim, and now runs a small but rapidly growing exchange that imposes a 60-mile optical fiber loop on the “frequent traders'” trades, giving the original buyers their critical ms of priority to fill orders at quoted prices.

          He’d lined up clients by going around to the big financial houses, which were gob-smacked to see how they’d been played by the skimmers.

      • Anything is possible says:

        “All data comes with assumptions and theory.”

        ==========================================

        And you can’t make assumptions without the “ass”

  2. This was entirely obvious when the BEST data first came out–so this post is just a delayed reaction, it seems to me. That’s what I find so frustrating about the various debates within the Debate, not everybody “gets” the point, of anything, all at once and for good. (It reminds me of that saying I just saw again yesterday, about men going mad in crowds, and recovering only slowly and one at a time.)

    • Of course, what you’ve done, in showing the fraudulent adjustments to the pre-BEST surface data, must apply to the BEST data as well (since they made such a big deal that BEST fully validated that fraudulent data), and that is the bottom line.

  3. Send Al to the Pole says:

    Gail,
    The NASDAQ was set up as you described long ago. It was dominated by “Dealers” who’s job it was to “make markets”, essentially acting as middle men and buying and selling for everyone, shaving some off for themselves in the process. I personally watched while they added $1/share to small transactions. (It was being done to me) (1980s) Being licensed as a “Market Maker” was essentially a license to steal.

    Then the facility referred to as ISLAND was introduced, and individuals could use it to act as NASDAQ dealers. They began to cut out the dealers because they would facilitate the trade for “a Teenie”, or 1/16. With Level III software, you could see the trading landscape, and get ahead of other trades, or add in an advantageous trade to match up two other mismatched trades.

    Some individuals made a killing. The spread on the Bid vs Ask fell considerably, and it was good for small traders.

    Now, the minimum is .01 (I think)

    http://www.investinganswers.com/financial-dictionary/stock-market/level-iii-quote-3276

    • Gail Combs says:

      Twenty years ago we sold off most of our stock and invested in our farm. I never really played the market, just long term invested in stock like AT&T before it got de-regulated.

      My interest is more determining what is actually happening to my country. – Legalized fraud and theft for Them but not for Me.

  4. Send Al to the Pole says:

    Regarding BEST – I knew from the very beginning Muller was not to be trusted. Amazing how many people were expecting legitimacy from that fraud.

    • Gail Combs says:

      Anthony Watts learned that the hard way:

      Pertinax says:
      Are the station classifications available publicly at this time?
      ….
      REPLY: no, not until our paper is published, we’ve been hijacked in the past by both NOAA and BEST for sharing this data ahead of publication, and I won’t do so again – Anthony
      link

      Honesty and integrity have become rare traits. I remember when no one locked the door to the house when away on vacation. Now you look the door of the car while sitting out in the yard.

      • BruceC says:

        Not only that Gail, we now lock door to the house…..when we are inside!

      • gator69 says:

        I was having dinner with some new friends who also live out in the boondocks, when they mentioned they had been away for two weeks and had not bothered to lock their doors. I asked why they did not secure their home, and they said, “One of the neighbors might have needed something.”

        This is why I moved out here.

  5. slimething says:

    I don’t think it is any coincidence the market dropped Friday after revelations of market rigging have been confirmed and the public is aware of it now. The market is overvalued by at least 50% and I believe QE will never be eliminated because if it were, the Dow would plummet immediately. The stock market is going to crash, and $85b/mo will seem like chump change compared to what the Fed would pump when the next crash hits.

    • Gail Combs says:

      I am waiting for the light bulbs to start turning on in the heads of the younger generation.

      Unfortunately they have been fed nothing but propaganda.

      • slimething says:

        The larger populace is now conditioned to expect a minimum standard of living, earned or not. What the takers and young folks don’t realize, when it comes time to pay the piper they will not be spared. So while there is never a mention of welfare money running out, when the system collapses those unprepared and living paycheck to paycheck are going ton suffer tremendous hardship. That would be well over half of the population since the 2008 crash.

        • Gail Combs says:

          Figure most American cities are going to make Detroit look palatial. One fiction writer places the “Urban Wars” about twenty years from now. I wonder if she knows something we don’t?

  6. BruceC says:

    Question to Mosh and / or Wood for Trees;

    Why does the BEST data end in May 2010?

  7. Gail Combs says:

    Brian, glad to hear an entrepreneur came up with a creative solution to out fox the skimmers.

    If the bureauRats will get the He!! out of the way, human ingenuity usually comes up with a better solution.

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