James Hansen’s Forecasts As A Near Perfect Indicator Of The Climate Future

James Hansen has made many forecasts over the last 30 years, with close to 0% success rate. Betting on the opposite of what he predicts, is almost a sure thing. Thirty years ago he forecast peak sea-ice loss (40%) in the Weddell Sea of Antarctica.

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http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/downloads/Challenge_chapter2.pdf

So how did that forecast work out? The Weddell Sea is where the peak sea ice gain has occurred. The exact opposite of what Hansen forecast.

ScreenHunter_165 Apr. 13 06.52

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_daily_extent.png

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11 Responses to James Hansen’s Forecasts As A Near Perfect Indicator Of The Climate Future

  1. Douglas Hoyt says:

    Back in 1969, I was working at NCAR. One day one of scientists took me aside and said to me that I should watch out for James Hansen. He said that everything that Hansen does is wrong. True story.

    • Jimbo says:

      Two years before Hansen thought that dust made Venus hot.

      Hansen and Matsushima 1967
      The atmosphere and surface temperature of Venus: A dust insulation model.
      Astrophys. J., 150, 1139-1157, doi:10.1086/149410.
      A dust insulation model for the atmosphere of Venus is proposed in which the high surface temperature results primarily from a shielding of energy escaping from the planetary interior. The insulation is provided by micron-sized dust particles which may be kept airborne by mild turbulence. For an outflow of planetary heat of the same order as that on Earth, the required infrared opacity of the dusty atmosphere is ~ 105 and the same atmospheric structure accounts for the osbserved microwave spectrum……..
      http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha05400j.html

    • Jimbo says:

      But Hansen was right about these. 😉

      James Hansen et. al. – PNAS – 4 November 2003
      Abstract
      Soot climate forcing via snow and ice albedos
      Plausible estimates for the effect of soot on snow and ice albedos (1.5% in the Arctic and 3% in Northern Hemisphere land areas) yield a climate forcing of +0.3 W/m2 in the Northern Hemisphere. The “efficacy” of this forcing is ~2, i.e., for a given forcing it is twice as effective as CO2 in altering global surface air temperature. This indirect soot forcing may have contributed to global warming of the past century, including the trend toward early springs in the Northern Hemisphere, thinning Arctic sea ice, and melting land ice and permafrost……
      http://www.pnas.org/content/101/2/423.abstract

      —–

      James Hansen et. al. – PNAS – August 15, 2000
      Abstract
      Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario
      A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade……
      http://www.pnas.org/content/97/18/9875.long

  2. Goodlife1 says:

    So we have peak ice in the Wendell sea, yet this “brilliant scientist” wrote a book about hos HIS penguins were going to be wiped out from loss of ice in that area. — Frasers penguisn
    http://www.amazon.com/Frasers-Penguins-Journey-Future-Antarctica/dp/0805079424/ref=sr_1_1_title_1_har?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1397405561&sr=1-1&keywords=Fraser%27s+Penguins

  3. Eric Simpson says:

    Ok, but what he has to say now is different, and is clearly logical, like this just last year:

    “If you leave us at 450ppm for long enough it will probably melt all the ice – that’s a sea rise of 75 meters. ” -James Hansen, 2012

    Just because we’ve gone from 250 to 400ppm and we’ve seen no change in sea level, or at least no change in the truly minimal rate of sea level rise, the point is that over 400ppm is the critical mass point, the point of no return. We will certainly go from a rate of perhaps a tenth of a meter per century to a rate of 100 meters a century, a 1000x increase in the rate of rise, because.
    And it also makes perfect sense that it’s not about stopping the massive emissions of CO2 from China and India et al, but of instead reducing emissions by only a very minor amount by blocking the Keystone XL pipeline and Canadian oil development, because CO2 emitted from North America is much more damaging, because. That is why this quote does not represent somebody who has gone flat off his rocker:

    “If Canada proceeds [with its tar sands oil development… Sea levels would rise and destroy coastal cities. Global temperatures would become intolerable. Twenty to 50 percent of the planet’s species would be driven to extinction.” -James Hansen, 2012

    • Morgan says:

      If earth turns into Venus as Jimbo says, and the ocean start to boil, and all liquid water on earth goes into the atmosphere, as Jimbo says, then rising sea levels are the least of our problems.

      • Eric Simpson says:

        It sure gets you mad to listen to Hansen’s bs in that youtube. It’s hard to extract a compact quote out of all that garbage Hansen spews on the video, but I jotted this down:
        “[we will likely see] the oceans begin to boil, and have a runaway greenhouse effect.” -James Hansen, NASA
        Pure bs. In the past CO2 has gone as high as 7000ppm, and there was no runaway greenhouse. Now the NASA chief idiot and chief fear monger says that 450ppm could lead to runaway greenhouse effect. Criminal.

  4. Colorado Wellington says:

    I’m trying to find Hansen’s bets on commodities futures.

  5. Isolated areas marked “0” within areas marked “0” in the tropical ocean? Hansen was smoking something when he made that silly map.

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