Five Years Since Experts Announced The Demise Of Multi-Year Arctic Ice

Five years ago, crack government scientists announced the official demise of multi-year sea ice.

ScreenHunter_186 Apr. 13 19.25

The multiyear ice covering the Arctic Ocean has effectively vanished, a startling development that will make it easier to open up polar shipping routes, an Arctic expert said on Thursday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/10/29/us-climate-canada-arctic-idUSTRE59S3LT20091029

And now, half of the Arctic Ocean is covered with thick, impenetrable multi-year ice.

ScreenHunter_187 Apr. 13 19.30

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2014/04/arctic-sea-ice-at-fifth-lowest-annual-maximum/

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46 Responses to Five Years Since Experts Announced The Demise Of Multi-Year Arctic Ice

  1. tom0mason says:

    Yet another example of the steaming pile of sh¿Ŧ that is the settled science of CAGW ‘climate change’.

  2. Andy Oz says:

    I need “crack government scientists” to tell me I’ll never win Lotto!
    With their 97% strike out rate, I’ll take those odds any day.

  3. Joe says:

    Lol, I remember news stories on tv about this 5 or so years ago – The nations around the Arctic were staking claims and what not. Those dreams are gone now haha

    • Dave N says:

      Notice how quickly resources companies reacted to the news: in the blink of an eye, they did absolutely nothing about it. Conclusion: they’re not as stupid as alarmists and politicians.

      While I’m at it, is there a useful one-word definition for those who pretend they’re trying to save the world? These are not necessarily alarmists; they just believe in their BS.

  4. Chewer says:

    And in a hair over 4 months from now, the refreeze begins 😉

  5. Billy N.Z. says:

    Oh no,it’s worse than we thought.

  6. Snow White says:

    I’m back, and half of the Arctic Ocean is NOT currently “covered with thick, impenetrable multi-year ice”. If you’re skeptical about that then please feel free to take a good long look at:

    http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2014/04/new-arctic-sea-ice-resources/

  7. Ben Vorlich says:

    SW
    In the link posted by Steve

    This winter the multiyear ice makes up 43% of the icepack compared to only 30% in 2013.

    So perhaps he could have said roughly half of the icepack. Then again why shouldn’t he use the language of the warmists?

    • Snow White says:

      Ben – Apart from the 43% versus 50% issue that you highlight, I think you’ll find that a significant proportion of the current “multi-year ice” is not in fact “thick and impenetrable”, by historical standards at least.

      Have you actually looked at the evidence. Ours, not Steve’s!

      • Jimmy, you perv, it should be fairly simple to sail up there & prove your (mindless, imbecilic) point. The ice isn’t thick, so prove it. Go for it, girl!

        • Snow White says:

          Stark – It’s not exactly simple, but some people I know are skiing across the sea ice as we speak. Their initial report is reproduced below for your convenience. For more information see my April 14, 2014 at 11:12 pm

  8. Snow White says:

    With all due respect Andy, what’s that supposed to prove? The title of this thread mentions “Arctic Ice”. I’m not talking about CAGW, scam or otherwise. I’m presenting evidence about the state of the sea ice in the Arctic.

    To reiterate and rephrase slightly – 43% of the Arctic Ocean is NOT currently “covered with thick, impenetrable multi-year ice”, by historical standards at least.

    • Andy Oz says:

      Looks to be 50% greater than 3m thick and the other 50% more than 2m.

      • Gail Combs says:

        Not to mention the wind piled ice in the great lakes is 14 ft thick…

        OH MY GOODNESS!!! IT IS THE START OF AN ICE AGE PANIC, PANIC, RUN AND SHOUT!!!

        Do I have the climate alarmism right?

      • Snow White says:

        That’s the output of a computer model Andy, produced by some folks who are concerned about bending the conning towers of some of their hardware assets. Do you honestly believe that pictures produced by the US Navy’s ACNFS model really represent reality?

        • Shazaam says:

          Now that’s rich….

          A fantasy fairy-tale warming believer questioning whether a model represents reality?????

        • Gail Combs says:

          Shazaam,
          They question computer models if they do not go along with the IPCC ‘consensus’ that man is evil and must pay a penance to the banksters.

          World Bank Carbon Finance Report for 2007
          The carbon economy is the fastest growing industry globally with US$84 billion of carbon trading conducted in 2007, doubling to $116 billion in 2008, and expected to reach over $200 billion by 2012 and over $2,000 billion by 2020.

          A $2,000 billion a year ‘industry’ that does nothing but siphon wealth out of the pockets of the poor straight into the pockets of the rich.

          Can’t you here that giant sucking sound?

  9. Snow White says:

    Shazaam – Actually what’s rich is Steve Goddard asserting that a model does represent reality, and not for the first time!!!!!

    • Andy DC says:

      Who is the denier now?

    • People who misrepresent what I say, quickly become spam around here.

      • Snow White says:

        After searching long and hard the NPEO 2014 eventually found some ice 1.7 m thick near the North Pole. Apparently most of it was nearer 1.4 m:

        http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2014/04/north-pole-webcam-begins-transmissions/

        • The ice is never very thick near the pole, due to drift.. Western Arctic ice is 3-5 metres thick

        • Snow White says:

          @Steven / @Jimbo – Do you suppose that I am unaware of all that? The blue line on the ASCAT image at the top shows MYI ice between the Pole and Ellesmere Island. People actually skiing across that ice as we speak report that “This entire area is made up of first-year ice.”

          http://en.expedition-hope.org/blog/calm-after-the-storm/

          Moving over to the Western Arctic, a buoy embedded in the multi-year ice in the Beaufort Sea reports that it is currently 2.66 metres thick:

          http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/winter-201314-imbs/#2013G

        • Jimbo says:

          You are suffering from bi-polar disorder. The North Pole has been ice free before. Always take the long term view when making screaming comments about the present.

          New York Times – May 18, 1926
          Lincoln Ellsworth of the Amundsen-Ellsworth transpolar expedition told The Associated Press here today that he saw much open water at the North Pole when he and his sixteen companions passed over it last Tuesday night in the dirigible Norge.
          ___________________

          Edmonton Journal – 29 May 1928
          Reported Open Water Near the North Pole
          ___________________

          Ottawa Citizen – Apr 3, 1969
          North Pole is the goal
          …While the Pole itself doesn’t move, the ice above it does – sometimes there is open water at the site and hitting the exact loca-tion is no easy chore….
          ___________________

          New York Times – 29 August 2000
          “The fact of having no ice at the pole is not so stunning,” said Dr. Claire L. Parkinson, a climatologist at the Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. “But the report said the ship encountered an unusual amount of open water all the way up. That is reason for concern.”

          New York Times – 29 August 2000
          Correction: August 29, 2000, Tuesday A front-page article on Aug. 19 and a brief report on Aug. 20 in The Week in Review about the sighting of open water at the North Pole misstated the normal conditions of the sea ice there. A clear spot has probably opened at the pole before, scientists say, because about 10 percent of the Arctic Ocean is clear of ice in a typical summer. The reports also referred incompletely to the link between the open water and global warming. The lack of ice at the pole is not necessarily related to global warming.
          ___________________

          Common Dreams – 4 September 2000
          Climate Change Has The World Skating On Thin Ice
          by Lester R. Brown

          “If any explorers had been hiking to the North Pole this summer, they would have had to swim the last few miles. The discovery of open water at the Pole by an ice-breaker cruise ship in mid August surprised many in the scientific community.”
          ___________________
          NOAA Faqs – found 18 November 2013
          10. Is it true that the North Pole is now water?
          Recently there have been newspaper articles describing the existence of open water at the North Pole. This situation is infrequent but has been known to occur as the ice is shifted around by winds. In itself, this observation is not meaningful.
          ___________________
          Naval History & Heritage | U.S. Naval Institute – August 11, 2011
          USS Skate (SSN-578) Becomes the First Submarine to Surface at the North Pole
          …The date was 11 August 1958 and the Skate had just become the first submarine to surface at the North Pole….
          http://www.navalhistory.org/2011/08/11/uss-skate-ssn-578-becomes-the-first-submarine-to-surface-at-the-north-pole
          [1959???]
          ___________________
          Navsource.org
          [89] U.S. and British sailors explore the Arctic ice cap while conducting the first U.S./British coordinated surfacing at the North Pole. The ships are, left to right: the nuclear-powered attack submarine Sea Devil (SSN-664), the fleet submarine HMS Superb (S-109) , and the nuclear-powered attack submarine Billfish (SSN-676), 18 May 1987.

  10. Brian G Valentine says:

    How long will it be before about four people drunk on Greenpeace slogans in a paddleboat launch from Barrow the North Pole to prove there is no ice any more

  11. Amazing how these “Experts” throw out an opinion without recognizing past historical trends… Steven has pointed out many, many times how in the past (1930’s for example) there was all this talk of an open “Northwest Passage” because the Ice was melting …. then it came back to reach a high point in the 70’s…

    What a joke, this is and has always been cyclical. Problem is these fools assert the trend can only continue to go in one direction solely because of CO2… forget about this mysterious thing called “the Sun” or the Earth’s own heat/magnetic changes .. or the Earth’s differing orbits in relation to “the Sun”… whatever…

    These fools have a Political Agenda first and foremost… this becomes obvious over time … the real deniers are those who cannot bring themselves to admit the Earth hasn’t warmed in 18 years now… and Ice Levels are at record highs… yes, the Bellwethers at the Poles say its getting colder despite what computer models and “normalized” data say…

    • Snow White says:

      Surely you jest Philippe? The bellwethers in the Arctic says that the measured surface air temperatures have been way above normal all winter:

      http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2014/04/the-arctic-sea-ice-recovery-vanishes-even-more/#SAT

      • Shazaam says:

        So, in this “way above normal” in the Arctic, just how much ice melted?

        I think posters named after fantasy fairy tale characters get careless with little facts like the tiny fact that ice forms nicely even in “above average Arctic winter temperatures”.

      • Gail Combs says:

        Abstract

        We therefore conclude that for a priod in the Early Holocene, probably for a millenium or more, the Arctic Ocean was free of sea ice at least for shorter periods in the summer. This may serve as an analogue to the predicted “greenhouse situation” expected to appear within our century.
        http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AGUFMPP11A0203F

        Abstract

        Arctic sea ice cover was strongly reduced during most of the early Holocene and there appear to have been periods of ice free summers in the central Arctic Ocean. This has important consequences for our understanding of the recent trend of declining sea ice, and calls for further research on causal links between Arctic climate and sea ice.
        http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379110003185

        Temperature and precipitation history of the Arctic

        Solar energy reached a summer maximum (9% higher than at present) ca 11 ka ago and has been decreasing since then, primarily in response to the precession of the equinoxes. The extra energy elevated early Holocene summer temperatures throughout the Arctic 1-3° C above 20th century averages, enough to completely melt many small glaciers throughout the Arctic, although the Greenland Ice Sheet was only slightly smaller than at present… As summer solar energy decreased in the second half of the Holocene, glaciers reestablished or advanced, sea ice expanded, and the flow of warm Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean diminished. Late Holocene cooling reached its nadir during the Little Ice Age (about 1250-1850 AD), when sun-blocking volcanic eruptions and perhaps other causes added to the orbital cooling, allowing most Arctic glaciers to reach their maximum Holocene extent.

        The sea level highstand was 2 meters higher than it was today and a recent Norway study showed most glaciers in Norway likely didn’t exist 6,000 years ago, The highest period of the glacial increase has been in the past 600 years. (BP = Before Present)
        ABSTRACT:

        … Minimum glacier input is indicated between 6700-5700 cal yr BP, probably reflecting a situation when most glaciers in the catchment had melted away, whereas the highest glacier activity is observed around 600 and 200 cal yr BP. During the local Neoglacial interval (~4200 cal yr BP until present), five individual periods of significantly reduced glacier extent are identified at ~3400, 3000-2700, 2100-2000, 1700-1500, and ~900 cal yr BP.
        (wwwDOT)sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0033589411001256

        Note that the last significantly reduced glacier extent identified was ~900 calender years Before Present. Translation: It is getting COLDER!

        No go away with all your idiotic Arctic Sea Ice Alarmism.

        • Snow White says:

          Gail/Shazaam – Except for the periphery, the Arctic is still in the “freezing season”. The question at this juncture should be “how much thicker has the ice grown”, not “how much has the ice melted”

        • Shazaam says:

          Says the poster named for a Fantasy Fairy-tale character…..

          OK, so in spite of the record warm Arctic winter temperatures, you do admit that there was ice forming in the Arctic winter cold?

          I just love the the alarmisim in your statements. I know you’re doing the best you can, yet I cannot help laughing at your attempts to scare the sheep!!

        • Shazaam says:

          I suspect the sheep should be nervous around climate alamists.

          {tries to look innocent}

        • Gail Combs says:

          Especially if they’re wearing wellies.

  12. Snow White says:
    April 15, 2014 at 4:53 pm

    Except for the periphery, the Arctic is still in the “freezing season”.

    You mean duh Nort Pule does not melt from the centre out? Why you no tell that us!

  13. Snow White says:

    Shazaam – Of course ice gets thicker in the Arctic in winter. However if the air above it is warmer it doesn’t get thicker so quickly, all else being equal.

    • First Jim explains carefully that the edges of the polar ice-cap melt first, then he explains that higher temperatures cause slower freezing. For his next trick he explains that he can’t stop posting ridiculous trivialities & tautologies gussied up as intellectual bafflegab. Because none of us knew that one either.

      • Shazaam says:

        That’s OK. We know the drag-queen is doing the absolute best he can with the intellect he has.

        Doesn’t have to stop anyone from laughing at the spectacle though.

        And I bet the drag-queen always wears his wellingtons!! (to keep the sheep nervous if for no other reason)

      • Snow White says:

        Stark – Shazaam asked “how much ice melted?”. I answered. I suggest you direct your comments about “ridiculous trivialities & tautologies gussied up as intellectual bafflegab” in their direction instead.

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