In The End, Their Credibility Will Melt Away Quite Suddenly

In 2007, leading experts said that the Arctic will be ice-free by 2013, and that it will all melt away quite suddenly.

ScreenHunter_67 Apr. 29 00.32

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013’

The green circle below shows the date of that prediction. Since then, the average Arctic sea ice area has grown by more than two million km². There has been no trend for 10 years

ScreenHunter_68 Apr. 29 00.34

iphone.anomaly.arctic.png (512×412)

These climate experts talk very confidently about things they understand nothing about, it gets repeated by useful idiots in the press, and then they both get paid to drag civilization back to the dark ages..


About stevengoddard

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15 Responses to In The End, Their Credibility Will Melt Away Quite Suddenly

  1. Andy Oz says:

    Rhetorical question but feel free to drop in your 2 bobs worth.
    How come “Climate experts” are not celebrating the return of the Arctic Ice to normal conditions?
    There should be dancing in the streets, shouts of “We did it!”, and “The Carbon Tax worked!”
    Do they deny their own data??

  2. Another Ian says:


    Reminds me of a verse in praise of RAF hierarchy

    “There’s corporals and sergeants and flight sergeants too

    With their hands in their pockets and F-all to do

    They march up andd down,

    They rave and they shout

    They talk about things they know f-all about

    And for all of their uses they might as well be

    Shovelling sh– on the Isle of Capri”

  3. Otter (ClimateOtter on Twitter) says:

    Steve, if I may: This chart shows the average…. for the year, for the summer, for the winter…..? And what does the Zero baseline mean in regards to that? I ask because I notice half a dozen peaks in the record that are higher than 1979. Wasn’t 1979 supposed to be ‘record’ ice?

  4. Aussiebear says:

    What I find amusing is to point out these failures. The come back is “You are cherry-picking!”. I reply, no, I am not. When this was published why didn’t other learned members of the climate science community come back and say, “No, this is too pessimistic!”. Where were the peer reviewers? If no one spoke up, then there is agreement (consensus) with the models and the expected outcome. Thus the projection and the science/assumptions supporting the model(s) are WRONG!

  5. Cheshirered says:

    Keep shining the light into their darkness, Steve.
    A single ‘go to’ resource highlighting all these multiple failed predictions would be a wonderful weapon against agw nonsense. There’s nothing quite so strong as using their own predictions to falsify their claims.

  6. Cheshirered says:

    Btw…It looks like just over 2 million sq km growth in around 7 years. That’s on target for an extra c24.5 million sq km of ice by the end of the century!! We’re all going to freeze to death. Obviously.

  7. ed k says: A recent graph of temperatures For Boston. NOTE: this graph has 120 year mean, not thirty year mean you see in most graphs, running below that which is unusual.

  8. Justa Joe says:

    When you’re peddling the end of the world it pays to have a flair for the dramatic.

  9. Doug Proctor says:

    All the prediction was, was a trend-line projection. I got 2013 as the zero ice time in about 14 seconds, and that includes second thoughts about the wisdom of spending time doing it.

    But I’ll bet it took a month of simulations on a Cray. And supported a grant proposal.

  10. Hugh K says:

    If these alarmists were as brilliant as the demedia would have us believe, you would think they had learned from the past and have extended their prophesies out past their life expectancy.

  11. Jimbo says:

    Here is Wadhams again. I can’t wait to see him eat crow.

    Daily Telegraph – 8 November 2011
    Arctic sea ice ‘to melt by 2015’
    Prof Wadhams said: “His [model] is the most extreme but he is also the best modeller around.

    “It is really showing the fall-off in ice volume is so fast that it is going to bring us to zero very quickly. 2015 is a very serious prediction and I think I am pretty much persuaded that that’s when it will happen.”


    Guardian – 17 September 2012
    Arctic expert predicts final collapse of sea ice within four years
    “This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates”.


    Financial Times Magazine – 2 August 2013
    “It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer,”


    The Scotsman – 12 September 2013
    Arctic sea ice will vanish within three years, says expert
    “The entire ice cover is now on the point of collapse.

    “The extra open water already created by the retreating ice allows bigger waves to be generated by storms, which are sweeping away the surviving ice. It is truly the case that it will be all gone by 2015. The consequences are enormous and represent a huge boost to global warming.”


    Guardian – 17 September 2012
    This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates“.
    [Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]

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