Nick is concerned that I show a US cooling trend since 1920, when other sources show warming. He thinks there might be something wrong with my GHCN/USHCN software.
The graph below has two trends on it. Both were created with my software. The only difference in how they were generated is that one uses the raw USHCN data set, and the other uses the final USHCN data set. The discrepancy is due to the USHCN V2 adjustments.
The next graph shows my calculated GHCN HCN daily trend in blue, on top of Hansen 1999 in red. The discrepancy is much smaller, and is due to the USHCN V1 adjustments.
There is nothing wrong with my software. NOAA/NASA are tampering with the data. As for Best/Muller/Mosher, the quotes below pretty much sum it up.
By Richard Muller on December 17, 2003
Let me be clear. My own reading of the literature and study of paleoclimate suggests strongly that carbon dioxide from burning of fossil fuels will prove to be the greatest pollutant of human history. It is likely to have severe and detrimental effects on global climate. I would love to believe that the results of Mann et al. are correct, and that the last few years have been the warmest in a millennium.
Medieval Global Warming – Page 2 | MIT Technology Review
11/03/11
“It is ironic if some people treat me as a traitor, since I was never a skeptic“
Richard Muller, Climate Researcher, Navigates The Volatile Line Between Science And Skepticism
Why anyone in the skeptic community trusted Muller – is beyond my comprehension.
I was pointing out the public relations problem, not jumping ship for Muller.
It would be helpful if some of our better behaved skeptics quit pandering to the fraudsters.
It would be much better if you would yourself play Devil’s advocate and understand that conservatives are already fully on board and that activist alarmists will never be converted but that the moderates who swing elections who come over from Drudge face a daunting situation when they consider using your context-lacking posts as ammo against alarm. That’s all that matters now, those everyday non activists, who skeptics would like to turn into messengers. Pure partisanship will only drive these everyday people away.
When I look at skeptical blogs I always imagine I’m delving into them as one of my happy go lucky neighbors with a few hard core Gorebot friends. So I cringe when I don’t see that still-convertible demographic being effectively addressed. It’s just a PR war now, and so any extreme looking claim requires acknowledgement of the opposing view instead of just leaving it to well trained Gorebot propogandists to do that comparison for you.
Ultimately people will be attracted to the truth, but not until they understand that they have been betrayed.
A profoundly elegant statement. The biggest issue I see is how now that cities dominate national elections, minor differences in policy desires of normal everyday people have turned into a memetic culture war. The Big Lie effect is *working* now that conservative politicians worldwide have become climate (model) skeptics and temperamentally born liberals suffer spitting mad hatred of all that is fine and good now that the liberal arts in college is just a boondoggle of Marxist indoctrination. I note that the same type of liberals who quickly co-opted the formerly Republican party fight against slavery and then Jim Crow and KKK culture to champion anti-white and anti-Asian affirmative action “civil rights” is now successfully co-opting libertarian Tea Party attacks on Nixon’s Drug War. These are wily bastards, pure protoplasm, seeking power, often playing chess against checker players, with the full force of collectivism to their advantage. A PR firm can create a message and they *all* follow it, years on end.
It is a temporary effect. Obama proclaiming 10 degrees warming to a record cold country, is as stupid a ploy as he could come up with. His dishonesty creeps further into people’s consciousness every time he opens his mouth.
But that doesn’t automatically result in election revolutions, since people already discount bullshit, and choose the least worst side in politics, merely.
(A) His popularity just popped back up to 47%.
(B) Cities now dominate elections:
https://i.imgur.com/fBniEsG.png
(C) City folk still hate conservatives who won’t let them disarm gangs or end the gang-funding Drug War.
Your statement holds true for young adults though, who will find they indeed have been duped, emotionally.
Disarm gangs? 😆
I think you mean “disarm the gang’s enemies”.
NYC is rotting your brain.
Nik posts crap.
Nik posts lots of crap to get a reaction.
Ignore Nik.
Nik will go away.
In particular, I will not miss his psycho-sexual innuendo, his race-baiting, class-dividing, and last but not least his transparent condescending, know-it-all and expressed holier-than-though attitudes.
Good bye Nik.
It was not nice knowing you.
The end (of Nik).
.
I agree with Nik.
So long as ‘skeptics’ trend towards wanting to eliminate my personal civil rights and impose a regime on my own body, I cannot support them in other matters even though we agree on many things.
This is very personal and the majority of women are in the same boat: we cannot associate with people who want to kill contraception rights and the Civil Rights Act which gave me the power to sue my school board because they forbade me from taking shop and mechanic classes back in 1964.
” So long as ‘skeptics’ trend towards wanting to eliminate my personal civil rights and impose a regime on my … ”
Blah blah blah
Single-issue voter who would rather have enslavement under a corrupt democrat-party centric system of government IN RETURN FOR free, unlimited no-consequences sex. And this BI – itch if I understand correctly is WELL PAST child-bearing age anyway! This is just disingenuous argumentation on her part then …
You, ma’am, are an idiot.
(Never mind the ‘rights’ of the child OR the purpose of procreation; the continuation of human life.)
I think this “emsnews” thing is a ‘democrat plant’ anyway. A mindless drone of no real value who posts simplistic, idiotic posts.
YOU WANT DEMOCRAT-PARTY CENTRIC SYSTEM OF GOVERNMENT – MOVE TO CHICAGO! REPUBLICANS GUARANTEED NEVER TO WIN AN ELECTION THERE!
But, Chicago is a shit hole, like what ALL democrat-party centric system of government areas turn into. TELL ME I’M WRONG.
“So long as ‘skeptics’ trend towards wanting to eliminate my personal civil rights and impose a regime on my own body, I cannot support them in other matters even though we agree on many things.”
This is where one must toss aside politics as a team sport. Both teams want to control our lives. They use different means, different excuses to arrive at that point, but that point is what they both want. Ever notice that neither team ever undoes the work of the other in that direction? It’s never reversed. Each team is working different roads to the same goal. So long as we pick between them, they win.
Hmmm … to the naked unaided Mk I eyeball in the 1st graph it looks like the past was ‘cooled’ ostensibly by the USHCN adjustments.
Oh no you don’t!! According to the
fraudstersclimate “scientists” the naked MK I eyeball is far too primitive a device to discern the esoteric and “very difficult to understand” statistics behind theircheatsvery scientific adjustments.” will prove to be the greatest pollutant ”
Not a pollutant. Geesh. What maroons.
When liberals suffer self-hatred, breathing out really is pollution, to them. They institutionally realize they are worthless sods. The problem is that the Matrix has arrived and has learned to feed off of their envy and get them to go out and vote as conservatives refuse to break a chad for a Mormon or an LSD-legalizing Tea Party candidate named after Ayn Rand.
institutionally > instinctively
Very, very difficult to read your material when you come off as a ‘crank’, Nik. In fact, I’m not even reading your stuff anymore, just kinda skimming it to see what kind of incendiary, bom b-throwing terms you’ve laced your post with …
” an LSD-legalizing Tea Party candidate named after Ayn Rand”
He was not named after Ayn Rand. That is directly from Rand Paul who should know.
If you want to make corrections to the temperature record, consider making negative adjustments for UHI. Or make adjustments to the temperature record to correct for the difference between the satellite record and the land based record. Or correct the land based record to reflect the non-divergence between the satellite surface record and middle troposphere temperatures.
None of these would suggest that any positive adjustments to the land based record are called for. We are being lied to over and over again each day by a compliant news media and street walker climate scientists.
“… carbon dioxide from burning of fossil fuels will prove to be the greatest pollutant of human history. It is likely to have severe and detrimental effects …
Most life on this planet depends on CO2 being converted to hydrocarbon by plants and microbes. To reduce the CO2 is to jeopardize all animal life on the planet.
Vilifying CO2 as a pollutant is akin to saying a shadow in the sun is a solid object.
Steve, thanks for the post and the clarity using un-“adjusted” raw data. Some people posing as skeptics continue to try to preach doom, subtly suggesting what you should “preach”, as if that is what you are about.
“…when they consider using your context-lacking posts as ammo against alarm. That’s all that matters now, those everyday non activists…
They hope you/we will stop trying. No, the truth (the scientific method – wherever) will make you free. One for RealScience; zero for Nik. It is strange, isn’t it, that anyone could ever have “trusted” Muller and the other fraudulent so-call scientists.
emsnews says:
May 10, 2014 at 1:08 pm
“So long as ‘skeptics’ trend towards wanting to eliminate my personal civil rights and impose a regime on my own body, I cannot support them in other matters even though we agree on many things.”
Who or what the Hell are you talking about? Crawl outside your uterus and please explain.
She, if “it” is a she, is an idiot.
I think “it” is rather a simple-minded drone bought and paid for by the democrat party.
Contrast this ems-thing-a-ma-jig versus Gail Combs.
Gail Combs is not an idiot. A little misguided in some areas, overboard in others, but NOT an idiot.
ems-thing-a-ma-jig *IS* an idiot. A bought and paid for idiot. Gail is genuine and speaking the truth as she sees it. ems-thing-a-ma-jig makes simplistic posts and occasionally ‘parrots’ some ‘canned’ message her overlords want posted here.
Interesting that EMS and SDB showed up around the same time.
And this, in a nutshell, is why you guys can’t get traction. Sad how, whenever anyone female explains the obvious, this sets you all off so badly.
We can’t get traction because we are annoyed by Progressives? OK.
Thanks… I think.
I do change my mind/position if I get new data that I can verify. Given we are all trying to swim in the cess pool called the MSM it is a bit tough to pick out the slivers of gold among the other brown solid matter.
Gator.
You should try to understand what emsnews is saying. Our side will never win by emphasizing and rehashing the issues that are important to our base. Whether because of media slant or because of education shortcomings, the numbers are against us. Yes, I suspect that we will get the vast majority of the well-informed analytical vote, but at most that is 36% of the vote. Opposing us are the informed self-focused vote who view government as the answer to their problems or victimhood, and they are at least 34% of the vote. So do you think you will get a majority of the remaining 30% of the vote? You are going to lose 6% of that 30% because they won’t see past our stance on the same-sex marriage issue regardless of their feelings on other issues. You are going to lose another 6% because they see our stance on global warming as indication that we do not care about the environment. And you are going to lose another 6% because the contraception issue is portrayed as war on women. When I first saw Democrats arguing that it is sexist to expect that men and women to pay for their own contraceptives, I thought no one is going to buy that hogwash. Well, the proof is in the last election . . . a noteworthy portion of the women believe that only Democrats can save them from being told by employers what they can do with their bodies.
Are you suggesting I do not understand this? Who says I want to remove any rights that currently exist? BTW I am a Libertarian. What I find indefensible is throwing the rest if us under the bus for a phantom fear like banning access to abortion.
Quit bickering as if their are only two sides. Enough.
iPhart alert. “there are only…”
Carry on.
An Inquirer says May 10, 2014 at 11:19 pm
… You should try to understand what emsnews is saying. Our side will never win by emphasizing and rehashing the issues that are important to our base.
One wonders where this is taking place, because, the last couple of presidential elections were lost by the candidates who were, in effect, ‘democrat light’. The base, as a result, didn’t turn out in quite the numbers required to win and voted for the real democrat. I reckon the lessons of Reagan have now been totally lost.
On the same-sex thing, the voters spoke in several states, including California and TURNED DOWN this measure, but, that was then overturned by judges … so you libs don’t have ANY traction there as the VOTERS THEMSELVES said no. Geez. Please, re-write some more history for us!
And to continue on gator’s theme-yes, what personal civil rights are you talking about? So you’re saying people who don’t believe in junk science are “taking away your civil rights”? Sorry, that’s not even a rational argument. But you’re ok with climate astrologers banning your light bulbs, or telling you what kind of car to drive, or driving up your energy costs and who knows what else? And who is trying to “kill the civil rights act”? Sorry, I have to go-due back on planet earth.
If a person tried to play around with the unemployment data for personal gain or to prove a personal pet economic theory, they would go to jail.
Steve, you may want to weigh into this WUWT post. They examine your method for plotting differences between raw temperatures and adjusted temperatures.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/05/10/spiking-temperatures-in-the-ushcn-an-artifact-of-late-data-reporting/
So basically, they make up adjusted data for stations where they don’t have any raw data.
Hi Steven,
Your analysis would greatly benefit from using anomalies rather than absolute temperatures, as everyone else working with temperature data does. Absolute temperatures cause problems when the composition of the station network is non-uniform over time, and anomalies are a relatively easy way to fix it without introducing any bias.
It should be relatively easy to add a line to your code to covert absolute temperatures to anomalies. I don’t write C, but it should be something like this:
by station_id month, sort: egen mean = mean(temp) if (year > 1960 & year <= 1990)
gen anomaly = temp – mean
That subtracts the temperature for a given station-month by the average temperature for that station and month during the 1961-1990 period.
Here little girl … would you like an ice cream cone? This nice, big chocolate cone?
Zeke,
NCDC reports absolute temperatures, and station data is reported in absolute temperatures.
anomalies are a relatively easy way to fix it without introducing any bias.
===
I can’t believe I just read that
“I just followed Zeke’s link to Yaleclimatemediaforum.org, looked at their “About” page, and found this gem…
“Regular Contributors
David Appell…”
😆
Wow … that emsnews is a lying idiot. Like so many other idiots, she just makes up crap.
Where in the world do you people come up with your garbage? Is there a liberal master propaganda site where you can pick random lies … or do you just make it all up yourself?
It’s simply mindboggling how brainwashed liberals are. I suppose decades of democrats force feeding them lies really works. I think the GOP should try it.
She is just a proselyte compared to SDB. If you really want to see how badly our public school system has screwed with kids brains, try following a thread SDB is on. Apparently modern humans are a brand new species, wholly apart from humans found just 250 years ago.
How odd a response.
For example, when I point out that in 1964 when the Civil Rights Act passed, this enabled me to force the schools to offer more courses for girls that were previously locked out due to sexual bias.
This is true ‘liberalism’ and is a good thing. Maybe you all disagree with this but then you didn’t have these many restrictions. Another lawsuit I launched was for the right to run more than a mile.
Seriously. Women were not allowed to run long races and if they tried, they were arrested.
Are conservatives trying to repeal the Civil Rights Act? I was completely unaware of that fact. Damn! Now I have remove the left side of my brain and vote for the donkey.
“It” commits several fallacies, including an anachronistic fallacy; applying today’s thinking and contemporary values on the people at time when either such thinking was never present or existed in just a few isolated pockets.
This, in part, is how history gets re-written.
“It” provides yet another example that there is no fool like an old fool, too.
You’re an idiot. There was more than one Civil Rights Act. In fact, if it hadn’t been for the Senate majority leader during Eisenhower’s presidency more legislation would have been passed. The Senate majority leader was Lyndon Baines Johnson, who did everything he could to water them down.
Typical liberals know nothing of history. They just absorb propaganda and reguritate.
“True liberalism” has nothing in common with todays’s fascist liberals.
SInce I also was made to take Home Ec (I flunked it on general principles) instead of shop and was not allowed to take drafting or run long distance on the track team, I can understand where you are comming from.
HOWEVER, the libs take credit for the Civil Rights Act THEY OPPOSED! You can thank the Republicans for managing to ram through the Civil Rights Act.
See The Democrat Party’s Long and Shameful History of Bigotry and Racism
An interesting side note is a southern Democrat, I can not remember which one after 50 years, was responsible for adding women to the Civil Rights Act to kill the bill. He figure while some might vote to make black MALES equal to whites, no one in their right mind would vote to extend first class citizenship to women. Seems he was wrong.
Well, in a nutshell the issue is simply with how progressives accomplish their missions.
A prime example:
For example, when I point out that in 1964 when the Civil Rights Act passed, this enabled me to force the schools to offer more courses for girls that were previously locked out due to sexual bias.
It’s anathema to any progressive to consider any approach that does not involve using either the government or the legal system as a giant club to force other people to their way. Hell, the laughingstock-in-chief has his pen and his phone and his drones and his IRS…..
Force the public to pay for the public schools. And then force those schools to do things your way. In the first century and a half of the US, the family was responsible to pay for their children’s education. And obviously the US was not mired in a sea of mud and ignorance in that time…. Don’t like the rules at school X?? Before the advent of forced public schools, the simple answer was to send them to a different one.
Now-a-days, folks are unwilling to abandon the tax money taken from them to fund the public schools and thus try to force the schools into their way of thinking. Thus the schools try please all and satisfy none. And fail in just about every conceivable way since they are guaranteed their funding. And that in a nutshell is the problem with government. They do not face losing funding for abject failure. Instead they get more to “correct” the failure. Thus failure is rewarded and you get more of any behavior you reward.
That’s a pretty striking agreement and indicates maybe Hansen didn’t have his foot on the scale. His older work with real data does seem to stand the test of time. Not sure what happened after that.
Your work needs a much wider audience, and some evidence that others have checked it. There is a trust issue, and I’m not sure what can be done about that, but the results (tampering) are so shocking that some form of validation and endorsement is very much needed. Without someone saying they agree with the methods, the charts seem “over the top” if not unbelievable. Not your problem, but many people simply can’t believe that the government is mashing the accelerator that hard. Hell, I still have trouble with it and I can run the code. I’ve shown people your charts and their first impression is that you must be a conspiracy nut. Not because you are, but because the trust they place in government scientists is that strong. They simply cannot believe the government would wreck the science! People who see your work may not know that they can replicate most of the temperature charts fairly easily. It is certainly helpful that the code is posted, and while I’ve looked at the code, I haven’t really tried to break it down to see exactly step by step what is being done (and I’m aware it is supposedly just simple averaging of stations that have data). But nobody would care what I think anyway. Having a few big-name auditors / geeks go over the code may go a long way toward having larger outlets (the media) using your charts. If I were the media, I would simply use it, and link to the code, saying “have at it” if you don’t believe it (as you do).
I do think posting the GHCN command (where it applies) and a link to the code on every post that uses it would get the message out that it is very much replicable work, and if you don’t like the methods, you can fix it to your liking. Just showing the command adds huge credibility.
A better explanation of what is needed to run it may also help others run it. I’ve installed it twice now, and you need a bunch of things other than just a linux machine. I don’t even know what they are, I just installed Cygwin with all options (14GB) on my windows machine and it was good to go, but that’s a lot of bloat when I probably only needed a few modules. dos2unix was needed both times for example, tcsh is needed, not sure what else made it work since I downloaded everything the 2nd time. You helped me get it going the first time on ubuntu or there would have been zero chance of success (I haven’t used unix in 20 years). So an installation for dummies (a step by step on how to install from a blank windows machine) may help (or a script?). Once it runs, it’s easy to do all sorts of analysis.
I assume there are plenty of other curious people that actually want to run this stuff and even extend it. (your precipitation work would be a nice adder, like options for “over 1.25″” for rainfall or snowfall). If even a few do this and can vouch for it, more people would be trumpeting your work.
I’m just saying anything that can help make it even easier or more transparent (if that is even possible) would help more people accept this important work. It really is almost unbelievable.
Didn’t see Anthony’s post until now. Wasn’t piling on, just saying it would be nice for other folks to inspect & validate the code. Glad they did, and they’re all respected guys to have a look at it. I was going to suggest Chip. It does what it is supposed to do, correctly, with some issues that crop up in partial years and weighting evidently in 2014. Fair enough. They seem to be ignoring the elephant in the room, which is cooling the past in a big way.
Other people have done similar work to Steve in the recent past and found exactly the same kind of data tampering. See Paul Homewood’s remark on the WUWT thread.
Paul Homewood says:
May 10, 2014 at 8:05 am
Every time I analyse USHCN stations on a state by state basis, and compare with NCDC figures, I come up with the same sort of discrepancy of about 1F, when comparing the change in temperatures since the 1930′s.
For instance, in Alabama NCDC have cooled the past by 1.3F.
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/03/29/temperature-adjustments-in-alabama/
Most AGW unbelievers are aware of what is going on, but not the General Public, not that they would care if they new. The MSM hides it almost to a man.
-=NikFromNYC=- says:
…. These are wily bastards, pure protoplasm, seeking power, often playing chess against checker players, with the full force of collectivism to their advantage. A PR firm can create a message and they *all* follow it, years on end….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Correct. The message can litterally go for generations as the young are indoctrinated. Kent Clizbe, started out as a ‘Red Diaper baby’ (his words) “I was fed the milk of “racist, sexist, imperialist American warmongers” through the nipple of my baby bottle. My familiarity with both the messages and the methods of the anti-American left sensitized me as I began to search for the covert influence that produced these attitudes.”
Excerpts from: Willing Accomplices: How KGB Covert Influence Agents Created Political Correctness and Destroyed America by Kent Clizbe, CIA Counter-terrorism Operations Expert
Wow…. How many times do we have to see this fraud… Temperature Adjustment,,,
Progressives and Liberals don’t even know about it… Or if they do, they refuse to acknowledge the lie…