Manhattan Sea Level Rise Rates Have Dropped 75% Since CO2 Went Above 310 PPM

The big White House push this week is to convince people that rising sea level due to Mann-made CO2 is going to come drown them.

Let’s test that theory out. The graph below plots Manhattan sea level vs atmospheric CO2. When CO2 was below 310 PPM, sea level rose four times faster than it has above 310 PPM.

ScreenHunter_78 May. 22 06.36

Sea level data : Data and Station Information for NEW YORK ( THE BATTERY)

Recent CO2 data : ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/co2/co2_annmean_mlo.txt

Older CO2 data : cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2/lawdome.combined.dat

This experiment took me ten minutes, and completely obliterates the theory that lowering CO2 would reduce sea level rise rates. Why is it that our top scientists can’t perform the most basic tests of correlation with their $29 billion/year?

About stevengoddard

Just having fun
This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

46 Responses to Manhattan Sea Level Rise Rates Have Dropped 75% Since CO2 Went Above 310 PPM

  1. Science should be about testing hypothesis with observable, replicable, experiential data and facts. In this vein as you have proven here for eg. Co2 does not correlate with anything be it sea level, climate, heat, cooling, weather…..the cult of Gaia, is a paleolithic cult dedicated to lies, money and power. That is all it is.

  2. daveburton says:

    Cute, Steve, but the terms “rate” and “faster” refer to a change over time, and your horizontal axis is not time, so that’s not a “rate.” Rather, your horizontal axis is CO2 level, which has been increasing much faster since the 1940s than it did before the 1940s. That “stretches out” the right-hand end of the graph, which accounts for the flattening apparent in the right-hand 2/3 of your graph.

    In fact, the sea-level trend at The Battery (NYC) has been rising linearly over time, with modest fluctuations, but no persistent change in rate, for the last >90 years. You can see that in NOAA’s graph, here:
    http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=8518750
    and also in PSMSL’s graph, here:
    http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/12.php

    • Their claim is that increasing CO2 is accelerating sea level rise rates. I am showing that if sea level is controlled by CO2 as they claim, the relationship is the exact opposite.

      • daveburton says:

        Actually, sea-level rise rates seem blissfully unaware of their supposed CO2 puppetmasters. The rate of sea-level rise is is about the same now as it was 80 years (and 90 ppm CO2) ago.

        • Phil Jones says:

          Right… CO2 has nothing to do with the sublimation of the East Coast right?

          Thus, no matter how many miles driven in your SUV, or hours spent on that coal fired computer… No matter how much Methane the cows we eat fart into the air… Manhattan is DOOMED!! Doomed I say in about 200 years +\- 500…

      • Gail Combs says:

        GEE, if you believe CO2 has something to do with a warming climate you just ‘Proved” the log relationship and saturation. graph

    • Morgan says:

      If sea level is rising linearly over time, it must have something to do with time. Best guess is the rebound of the North American plate. The southern half of the plate is sinking while the northern part of the plate is rising. The rate of this rebound depends on geological things such as viscosity of the mantle under the plate.

      Frog sits on the north end of a log floating in a pond, weighing it down. Frog jumps off, the north end of the log rebounds and the southern end sinks. There is your sea level rise.

      • daveburton says:

        That’s called post-glacial rebound (PGR), and it and local subsidence (because Battery Park is reclaimed ocean, a/k/a fill dirt!) account for roughly half of the sea-level rise at The Battery tide gauge.

        There’s also at least 100 cubic miles of grounded ice melting and running into the oceans, from various places in the world, every year. That also contributes (a little bit) to sea-level rise.

        • Gail Combs says:

          You forgot the other 1/2 of the equation. Northern Hemisphere snow has increased and over the last few hundred years the N. H. glaciers have re-established/grown.

          The Holocene Highstand (highest seal level) was thousands of years ago.

          Mid to late Holocene sea-level reconstruction of Southeast Vietnam using beachrock and beach-ridge deposits

          Abstract

          Beachrocks, beach ridge, washover and backshore deposits along the tectonically stable south-eastern Vietnamese coast document Holocene sea level changes. In combination with data from the final marine flooding phase of the incised Mekong River valley, the sea-level history of South Vietnam could be reconstructed for the last 8000 years. Connecting saltmarsh, mangrove and beachrock deposits the record covers the last phase of deglacial sea-level rise from − 5 to + 1.4 m between 8.1 to 6.4 ka. The rates of sea-level rise decreased sharply after the rapid early Holocene rise and stabilized at a rate of 4.5 mm/year between 8.0 and 6.9 ka. Southeast Vietnam beachrocks reveal that the mid-Holocene sea-level highstand slightly above + 1.4 m was reached between 6.7 and 5.0 ka, with a peak value close to + 1.5 m around 6.0 ka. This highstand is further limited by a backshore and beachridge deposit that marks the maximum springtide sea-level just below the base of the overlying beach ridge. After 5.0 ka sea level dropped below + 1.4 m and fell almost linearly at a rate of 0.24 mm/year until 0.63 ka and + 0.2 m as evidenced by the youngest beachrocks….
          http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818113001859

          Temperature and precipitation history of the Arctic
          Miller et al
          Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research and Department of Geological Sciences, University of Colorado, USA et al

          …. Solar energy reached a summer maximum (9% higher than at present) ~11 ka ago and has been decreasing since then, primarily in response to the precession of the equinoxes. The extra energy elevated early Holocene summer temperatures throughout the Arctic 1-3°C above 20th century averages, enough to completely melt many small glaciers throughout the Arctic, although the Greenland Ice Sheet was only slightly smaller than at present. Early Holocene summer sea ice limits were substantially smaller than their 20th century average, and the flow of Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean was substantially greater. As summer solar energy decreased in the second half of the Holocene, glaciers re-established or advanced, sea ice expanded

          Click to access MillerArctic.pdf

          A more recent paper looking at glaciers in Norway.

          A new approach for reconstructing glacier variability based on lake sediments recording input from more than one glacier January 2012
          Kristian Vasskoga Øyvind Paaschec, Atle Nesjea, John F. Boyled, H.J.B. Birks

          …. A multi-proxy numerical analysis demonstrates that it is possible to distinguish a glacier component in the ~ 8000-yr-long record, based on distinct changes in grain size, geochemistry, and magnetic composition…. This signal is …independently tested through a mineral magnetic provenance analysis of catchment samples. Minimum glacier input is indicated between 6700–5700 cal yr BP, probably reflecting a situation when most glaciers in the catchment had melted away, whereas the highest glacier activity is observed around 600 and 200 cal yr BP. During the local Neoglacial interval (~ 4200 cal yr BP until present), five individual periods of significantly reduced glacier extent are identified at ~ 3400, 3000–2700, 2100–2000, 1700–1500, and ~ 900 cal yr BP….
          http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0033589411001256

          The authors of these papers simply state that most glaciers likely didn’t exist 6,000 years ago, but the highest period of the glacial growth has been in the past 600 years. This is hardly surprising with ~9% (~120 kW/m² ) less solar energy.

        • Morgan says:

          Yeah, I know what it’s called, and can even figure out the abbreviation PGR (isn’t it impressive how the global warming mafia abbreviates everything so they can pretend to be some sort of experts, because experts abbreviate everything to impress). I can abbreviate too, it’s called BS.

          Isn’t it wonderful that you can describe the grounded glaciers (GG’s) from various parts of the world (VPOTW) and forget to mention how much snow is accumulating and glaciating in inland Antarctica and Greenland, and whether it balances the melting from the GG’s and calving. It does, and then some. Don’t tell me how many cubic miles of ice are melting without also telling us how many cubic miles are building up, because it might make me thing you are using BS as actual science.

          Battery Park is NOT reclaimed ocean, you moron, and it’s not a dirt fill. It’s the exact location where the Dutch settled Manhattan in 1624, on bedrock, and it’s been there for thousands of years. What you are talking about is Battery Park City, which is a new part of Manhattan Island west of the World Trade Center, and was built from landfill from the dirt excavated from the construction of the first WTC in the 1970’s. Nice try. You threw out your manufactured lie about Battery Park, hoping it would convince your opponents, but you didn’t realize you were talking to a Native New Yorker (NNY) and I call BS on you. Battery Park City is 5 blocks west and 10 blocks north of Battery Park, and was built in the 1970’s. Battery park itself, where they measure sea level and have been measuring it for hundreds of years, is at the southern tip of Manhattan, on bedrock, where South Ferry is, south of Bowling Green, near Fraunce’s Tavern, where George Washington came to New York City to address the new and amazing country called the USA, which you obviously hate……..come to NYC and let me show you around, you pathetic excuse for a real moron (PEFARM). I’ll show you a good time. And next time you feel like making up a lie about NYC, just shut the …. (STFU).

          What really disgusts me is that you would throw out lies like that, making stuff up as you go along. You global warming commies are a disgrace to the human race. Really, you are the enemies of the human race.

        • Colorado Wellington says:

          I worry about the rate of increase of friendly fire.

        • daveburton says:

          Welllll okay, then. “Friendly fire,” indeed.

          Thanks for the info, Gail. 600 years ago would be LIA, which makes sense. I think more glaciers have been retreating than advancing over the last couple hundred years, though. At Glacier Bay, AK, the glaciers were practically galloping in retreat in the 18th and 19th centuries, though the rate of retreat is now much slower.

          Morgan, that “at least 100 cubic miles of grounded ice melting and running into the oceans, from various places in the world, every year” is the net ice loss, i.e., ice melt less snow & ice accumulation. It sounds like a lot, but in the global scheme of things it is tiny, and means that annual ice loss & accumulation are close to being equal. 100 cubic miles of melting ice adds only 1.05 mm of depth to the world’s oceans.

          Of course both snow & ice accumulation and melt, individually, are much larger. The magnitude of ice accretion from snowfall was illustrated by the team which salvaged Glacier Girl from under 268 feet of accumulated ice, 50 years after she landed on the Greenland ice sheet:

          I’m not from NYC, so I had to rely on other sources for my information about your city. Perhaps this is wrong:

          HISTORY OF THE BATTERY

          The Battery’s strategic primacy at the prow of Manhattan enabled it to serve many dynamic roles in the City’s history. Located at the confluence of the Hudson and East Rivers, the Dutch settled here in 1623, and the first “battery” of cannons was erected to defend the young city of New Amsterdam.

          Over the years, both the land and the fortifications were enlarged. Castle Clinton was built in anticipation of the War of 1812. A decade later it was renamed Castle Garden and was transformed into the City’s premier concert hall.

          By 1855, successive landfills had enlarged the Park to encompass Castle Garden and the structure became America’s first immigrant receiving center, welcoming 8.5 million people before the establishment of Ellis Island. Visit our free online immigration database, CastleGarden.org, to search these immigration records. In 1896, the Castle was transformed into the beloved New York Aquarium, one of the nation’s first public aquariums.

          Following its near–total demolition by Robert Moses in 1941, resulting in a major preservation battle, the original fort walls were declared a National Monument by an Act of Congress in 1946. Restored to its fortification appearance by the National Park Service in 1975, the Castle currently houses a small interpretive display and the ticket office for the Statue of Liberty – Ellis Island ferry. Over three million visitors pass through its walls annually.

          Today The Battery Conservancy is committed to reversing years of neglect by redesigning and rebuilding the park’s landscape and completing an innovative adaptive reuse of the Castle.

          At The Battery sea-level rise averages 2.82 mm/yr, but at nearby Kings Point it averages only 2.48 mm/yr. My assumption was that the difference is due to local land subsidence at The Battery, due to its history of enlargement by landfills.

          Peltier’s VM2 model estimates 1.7 mm/yr of that (at both locations) to be due to GIA/PGR, but his numbers are best considered a very rough estimate. My guess is that his VM2 number is on the high side, and that global (“eustatic”) sea-level rise is about half of The Battery’s 2.82 mm/yr, with PGR+subsidence accounting for the rest.

        • Morgan says:

          Sorry, I misunderstood your post. I had too much wine with my dinner last night.

        • Colorado Wellington says:

          Too much wine! This calls for a beer summit.

    • Rates can be per any unit, which is why the term “exchange rate”, referring to one money for another, is valid. SG is giving us the rate of sea-level rise per unit CO2, rather than per unit time.

      • daveburton says:

        Okay, you’re right, there are uses of “rate” that don’t involve time. I stand corrected. But not in this context, which is in conjunction with the word “faster.”

    • James Strom says:

      So the lapse rate is a change over time. Thanks. I learn a lot here.

      • daveburton says:

        Conceded. I was wrong about the word “rate.”

        But “rising faster” refers to rate per unit of time.

        • David A says:

          Hum?, as the rate of CO2 increase has been fairly linear over time, it is, in effect, both.

        • daveburton says:

          Actually, the rate of CO2 increase has not been fairly linear. It has accelerated dramatically since the early 20th century. CO2 levels measured at Mauna Loa are increasing by a an average of more than 2 ppm per year, now. But from 1958 to 1968 they increased only about 7.5 ppm (i.e., at about 1/3 the current rate).

          Guesstimating from the graph, it appears that over the last 15 years or so the acceleration has declined, and the rate of CO2 increase might be becoming almost linear. But Steve’s graph goes back much longer than 15 years.

    • stpaulchuck says:

      LOL, thanks Gail.
      ———————-
      “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.” – Mark Twain

  3. stpaulchuck says:

    a bend in the curve like that usually indicates a change in measuring protocol/location/etc. Are we doing apples to apples here…??

  4. Robertv says:

    “Why is it that our top scientists can’t perform the most basic tests of correlation with their $29 billion/year?”

    The $29 billion/year .

  5. John F. Hultquist says:

    Most routines that make the calculations and graphs, such as you use, allow you to set the number of digits to the right of the decimal place. You should be able to have the top function look like this: f(x) = 2.19x + 6281.47

    The issue is called “false precision” or sometimes other names. In any case, the “.47” in the statement above seems to relate to mm. and thus to less than ½ mm. Adding on 8 more digits to a level of precision not even pronounceable is distracting and useless.

    • Gail Combs says:

      “…Adding on 8 more digits to a level of precision not even pronounceable is distracting and useless.”

      But it is SOOOooooo Climate Science.

      The false precision makes me want to scream. All they are doing is measuring noise and error.

  6. MikeTheDenier says:

    Steven, thought you would get a kick out of this one – Alarmist Paul Ehrlich Predicts Need to ‘Eat the Bodies of Your Dead’

    Read more: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/sean-long/2014/05/22/alarmist-paul-ehrlich-predicts-need-eat-bodies-your-dead#ixzz32TYkTbTy

    • Gail Combs says:

      Oh, good grief. The man’s looney tunes.

      It is called recycling and composting. The earth has been doing it since the first bacteria evolved and well before we did. Otherwise we would be miles deep in un-decomposed bodies.

      • Dave N says:

        “Oh, good grief. The man’s looney tunes.”

        An already well-established fact.

        Again, people aren’t interested in whether or not someone is correct; it’s about how scary their scenarios are, and how closely related to “saving the planet” or “humans are evil” it is.

        Sadly, those that give these ideas merit are either too stupid to realise why, or just greedy because they can sell this tripe to the stupid, or both.

        • Jason Calley says:

          “it’s about how scary their scenarios are, and how closely related to “saving the planet” or “humans are evil” it is. ”

          Yes!

          People eat air. And water. And food. But people “eat” memes as well. Just like some people are addicted to junk food, some people are addicted to junk memes. Instead of a sugar rush, they get a self-stroking ego rush. Swallowing the CAGW scam lets you experience “I will save the world with my understanding of Deep Science!”

          Healthy thinkers look for the truth. Sick thinkers look for an ego boost.

    • Truthseeker says:

      Mark,

      Do you have a brother called Stefan?

      http://globalwarmingdenier.wordpress.com/author/stefanthedenier/

  7. Eric Simpson says:

    Ehrlich’s Global Warming Zombie Apocalypse
    Despite the fact that the sea has not risen in any noticeable way in decades, and that temperatures have flatlined for 17+ years, and that there is zero (zilch) actual evidence that CO2 causes climate warming, despite all this, our friend Paul Ehrlich (Stanford biologist) has just come out and said that climate change will soon cause us to “eat bodies of the dead.” http://newsbusters.org/blogs/sean-long/2014/05/22/alarmist-paul-ehrlich-predicts-need-eat-bodies-your-dead
    “I’m 37, and I’d like to live to be 67 in a reasonably pleasant world, not die in some kind of holocaust in the next decade.” -Paul Ehrlich, 1971
    “In ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish.” -Paul Ehrlich, Earth Day 1970
    “A cancer is an uncontrolled multiplication of cells; the population explosion is an uncontrolled multiplication of people. We must shift our efforts from the treatment of the symptoms to the cutting out of the cancer.” -Paul Ehrlich

  8. If the sea level keeps rising, won’t the Manhattan polar bears drown?

    • Gail Combs says:

      No they will just migrate to DC and move into U.S. Capitol Building. It’s on a plateau 88 feet above the level of the Potomac.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s