Obama Blames Poor GDP On (Unadjusted) Cold Weather!

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

image

http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2014/05/29/second-estimate-gdp-first-quarter-2014

The White House has released their latest disappointing estimate for Q1 GDP, and comment:

Overall the first quarter was subject to a number of notable influences, including historically severe winter weather, which temporarily lowered growth.

They go on to show this graph of heating days and comment:

The first quarter of 2014 was marked by unusually severe winter weather, including record cold temperatures and snowstorms, which explains part of the difference in GDP growth relative to previous quarters. The left chart shows the quarterly deviation in heating degree days from its average for the same quarter over the previous five years. By this measure, the first quarter of 2014 was the third most unusually cold quarter over the last sixty years, behind only the first quarter of 1978 and the fourth quarter of 1976.

figure3a

This is all rather strange, because the heavily adjusted temperatures, published…

View original post 65 more words

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41 Responses to Obama Blames Poor GDP On (Unadjusted) Cold Weather!

  1. Psalmon says:

    I don’t see a trend in HDD.

  2. D. Self says:

    It’s friggin Obamacare and food prices tanking the economy. Wait till the 2nd quarter sucks then they will blame the drought in California. Oh! then the EPA’s new job crushing standards come out Monday. Liberals make me sick. .

    • Mike D says:

      Anyone remember stagflation? Of course we’ve been told for years that the balooning money supply won’t lead to inflation, but now that it is slapping everyone in the face, the media is blaming inflation on the weather.

      http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/beef-prices-continue-to-spike/26596462

      Of course everyone forgot that the reason cattle herds were lower is because feed has been so expensive, they sent animals to slaughter because they couldn’t afford to feed them.

      http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-09/hog-prices-seen-higher-as-ranchers-may-cull-herds-on-surging-feed-costs.html

      And oh, look at this, M2 measure of money supply is up 50% since hope and change arrived. $11.3 trillion, up from $7.5 trillion. Quite of bit of money sloshing around considering the GDP is about $15.5 trillion.
      http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2/

      • Gail Combs says:

        The FED doubled the money supply within six months of the affirmative action president hitting office and has continued to print money ever since. No one in DC will admit the real unemployment is ~ 24% because Clinton permanently shipped our jobs overseas. Unless you want to work for $1.00 to $1.66 an hour you can not compete with Chinese labor when there are no tariffs (import duties) evening the playing field.

        As of 1 May 2013, the highest monthly minimum wage in China is 1,600 yuan ($265.64 US Dollar). The lowest minimum wage was 1,010 yuan ( $165.62US Dollar ). US minimum wage is ~$1250/month @ $7.25/hr. That is what American workers are competing against.

        And that doesn’t include the hidden cost of US regulations.

        …A research paper that appears in the June 2013 issue of The Journal of Economic Growth titled “Federal Regulation and Aggregate Economic Growth,”
        …The authors consider only the number of pages of federal regulations (which increased almost seven-fold from 19,335 pages in 1949 to 134,261 pages by 2005) as their measure of the burden of regulation and explain that:

        Inclusion of state regulation would be highly desirable, but data collection is an enormous task, far beyond our resources….

        Regulation’s overall effect on output’s growth rate is negative and substantial.
        Federal regulations added over the past fifty years have reduced real output growth by about two percentage points on average [annually] over the period 1949-2005. That reduction in the growth rate has led to an accumulated reduction in GDP of about $38.8 trillion as of the end of 2011. That is, GDP at the end of 2011 would have been $53.9 trillion instead of $15.1 trillion if regulation had remained at its 1949 level.

        Finally, I think the burden of federal regulations on economic performance estimated by the authors might actually under-estimate the total drag on economic growth since they only include the cost of compliance and enforcement after the regulations are in place. The cost of federal regulations measured by the number of pages in the Code of Federal Regulations doesn’t include the burden of wasteful rent-seeking that private firms engage in before the regulations are in place, as they attempt to influence (support, oppose or change) federal regulations when they are first being proposed and considered by Congress or a federal agency. Adding in these costs of rent-seeking, and the costs of state regulations, paints a pretty depressing picture of how much poorer we all are due to the crushing burden of government regulations….
        http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/06/federal-regulations-have-lowered-gdp-growth-by-2-per-year/

      • tom0mason says:

        Well of course in this post-reality Abenomics thinking that means QE must necessarily skyrocket.

        /sarcoff

        Or do we have a distant memory, from a haze past time, when hope was fulfilled, when change was planned and executed for the betterment of all.
        As a great man said –

        “This Administration’s objective will be a healthy, vigorous, growing economy that provides equal opportunities for all Americans, with no barriers born of bigotry or discrimination. Putting America back to work means putting all Americans back to work. Ending inflation means freeing all Americans from the terror of runaway living costs. All must share in the productive work of this ’new beginning,’ and all must share in the bounty of a revived economy.” – Ronald Reagan

        Did it really happen? Could it again

        • Ernest Bush says:

          No, it won’t happen again. The system will collapse as has been the progressive plan all along. Just read what’s happening with the other posts under this topic. We the people, as a nation, are going to pay the price for not standing up to all of this years ago. The next two elections will not make much difference against what is happening, if those elections happen. Please, please, prove me wrong, but currently I don’t see any other alternative.

        • tom0mason says:

          So sad that it seems to be from ‘We the people…’ to ‘People retained in the government, by government, for the government.’

    • Gail Combs says:

      The food safety modernization act passed during the 2010 lameduck session goes into effects this year so expect to see your road side veggie and fruit stand disappear. Expect smart US fruit and veggie farmers wipe to wipe out their trees and plant corn for ethanol instead.

      This was a preview:
      2009: Beware homemade pie and a glass of milk – Inspector Nabs Homemade Desserts At St. Cecilia Church’s Lenten Fish Fry

      On the first Friday of Lent, an elderly female parishioner of St. Cecilia Catholic Church began unwrapping pies at the church. That’s when the trouble started. A state inspector, there for an annual checkup on the church’s kitchen, spied the desserts. After it was determined that the pies were home-baked, the inspector decreed they couldn’t be sold.

      “Everyone was devastated,” says Josie Reed, a 69-year-old former teacher known for her pumpkin and berry pies. Sold for $1 a slice, homemade pies have always been part of the Lenten fish-fry dinners at St. Cecilia’s, located in this tiny city near Pittsburgh. Similar dinners are held in church basements and other venues across the country this time of year. …

      The problem is the pies are illegal in Pennsylvania. Under the state’s food-safety code, facilities that provide food at four or more events in a year require at least a temporary eating and drinking license, and food has to be prepared in a state-inspected kitchen….

      2011: Police Bust Lemonade Stands Nationwide

      • B says:

        The attack on private food over the last few years has been incredible. The public of course doesn’t care and believes the media that the government is stomping on dangerous kooks. Pot-lucks, food clubs, cow-shares, anything food that is outside the government’s power.

        The Bundy ranch thing just comes out of the blue to them. They don’t understand why… it’s just been building up so people are now showing up to defend what’s left. The government will of course go after the supporters one by one.

        In Illinois they want to make an ‘exception’ for food sales under $1000… it only costs $200 in licenses and training…

        Government is intentionally breaking the people to better rule over us in every way it can.

  3. lance says:

    I believe NOAA also came out with their ‘index’ on ‘severe’ winters, and a couple of years ago, when the USA had a very warm winter/spring (see graph above), and they ‘rated’ it one of the worst, i guess this past winter was down right easy according to them….now, back to the real world…

    • Gail Combs says:

      We have had more than one nasty winter lately it just doesn’t hit the news very often.

      2008: Severe snowstorms batter China: (wwwDOT)nytimes.com/2008/01/28/world/asia/28iht-china.1.9543336.html
      “Severe snowstorms over broad swaths of eastern and central China have wreaked havoc … In Canada, several all-time snowfall records were set during winter, reaching more than 550 centimetres (cm) in many locations, including Quebec City. In Toronto, it was the third snowiest winter on record for the past 70 years….”

      2010: Snow in Florida. Deep freeze in the deep south: (wwwDOT)examiner.com/x-11224-Baltimore-Weather-Examiner~y2010m1d9-Snow-in-Florida–Deep-freeze-in-the-deep-south

      “Freak snow storm covers southern France” (wwwDOT)english.rfi.fr/france/20100505-surprise-snow-southern-france
      Temperatures were glacial across Europe over the weekend, kills 22 across Europe…
      Freak snow falls in Spain strands 6000.

      Heavy snow claims over 30 lives in north China

      A major snowstorm has battered Russia’s Pacific island of Sakhalin since New Year’s Eve, stranding almost 60 cars on the main highway… Snowfall in St. Petersburg breaks 130-year record… Heavy snow covers Moscow

      http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/8492333.stm
      Scotland records coldest winter
      The past two months have entered the record books
      Scotland has suffered some of the coldest winter months in almost 100 years, the Met Office has confirmed.
      By combining the temperatures of January and December it showed they were the coldest since 1914 – the year data started being logged.
      …..

      2007
      First major snow in Buenos Aires since 1918

      2008
      Severe snowstorms batter China

      2009
      In Canada, several all-time snowfall records were set
      worst cold outbreak of the current decade for the northern plains down to Florida

      2010:
      Feb 13th 2010 – Snow in all 50 U.S. states
      20 million farm animals may die in Mongolia before spring as the fiercest winter in living memory grips the country,
      Record Snowfall for Baltimore
      Freak snow storm covers southern France
      Freak snow falls in Spain strands 6000.
      Scotland records coldest winter
      Temperatures were glacial across Europe over the weekend, kills 22 across Europe
      Snowfall in St. Petersburg [Russia] breaks 130-year record
      2012:
      Low temps in Peru – Death toll rises to 31
      Freak cold in the Andes kills hundreds
      Cold Blast Claims Over 600 Lives Across Eastern Europe/Russia…”Death Toll Keeps Rising…State Of Emergency”
      Coldest January on record for parts of Alaska
      2012 the coldest July on record in Anchorage Alaska
      Shortage of food in Uzbekistan city due to snow
      The First Time Occurred, Snow Storm Hits West Sumatra, Indonesia on Wednesday, March 28.
      Snow record broken in South Africa
      Johannesburg marvels at rare snowfall
      Unprecedented cold in Morocco
      Heavy snowfall in Tunisia, Roads in Ain Draham blocked by 31 inches (80 cm) of snow

      2013
      Record cold in Cape Town, South Africa
      Rare snow in Atacama desert
      Brazil – Snow in over 80 cities – Roads and schools closed
      Worst cold spell in 80 years hammers Chile fruit crops
      More than 25 000 animals killed in southern Peru
      “Extraordinary” cold and large snowfall for southern Brazil
      Lao Cai Province [Viet Nam] alone, an unusual snowfall early this week caused an estimated loss of around VND10 billion
      Jerusalem hit by worst snowstorm for TWENTY YEARS as eight inches fall across Holy City
      Wintry blast to hit New Zealand
      July frosts reduce Brazil wheat, coffee
      Tibetan nomads in Ladakh call out for help, Thousands of livestock perish

      2014
      Record snowfall (almost 7 ft) in northern Iran
      Temperatures up to 40 degrees below normal in the [US] High Plains
      Slovenia paralyzed by snow and ice
      Southern Austria on highest avalanche alert after heavy snow – A meter of snow in two days – Valleys and roads cut off
      Serbia – 1,000 evacuated from cars, buses and trains – Snow drifts 3.5 meters high
      Poland – Heavy snowfall and blizzards
      Heavy snowfalls and blizzard hammer southern Romania

  4. jimash1 says:

    Even if 2014 proceeds with 6-7 months of record cold/cool temperatures, it will still be referred to as one of the warmest years ever. Ib the top 4 no doubt.
    And many people will not question this . In fact, they will twist themselves up like pretzels to
    explain it to me when I point out how ironically stupid it is.

  5. Gamecock says:

    And the Dems want to replace this soulless dweeb with a soulless witch in 2016.

    • Gail Combs says:

      She is much more dangerous than the Afirmative Action President because she has brains and drive. Look at all the damage she did during her first eight years in office.

  6. scott allen says:

    Wait a fricken minute, aren’t we in the middle of global warming/climate change/global chaos, and didn’t noaa say that this year is warmer than any year since …. I am all confused.

    On a more personal note, Steve, can you please add a like or dislike function, some of your posters are great.

  7. EW3 says:

    Three quarters ago they changed the ay they compute GDP. That change added 3% to the GDP by including a lot of items which had been excluded.
    So if they report -1%, in reality it’s -4%.

    • Gail Combs says:

      It is worse than that. The GDP also includes the salaries of all the BureauRats, burger flippers, shop clerks and other hamster wheel spinners. As another comment today showed the BureauRats and their (self-snip) regulations actually kill the economy.

      The ONLY job categories that actually ADD wealth to the economy are:
      Minimg
      Agriculture (and forestry)
      Manufacturing
      Construction

      The rest move the wealth around or are various forms of parasites.

      • emsnews says:

        So, anything that is intellectual is meaningless?

        You sound like someone working in Moscow circa 1930.

        • Gail Combs says:

          No intellectual is not meaningless, far from it. But it does not add to the material wealth of the nation until the engineers translated into something concrete.

          I was addressing the lying that goes into the GDP – Gross Domestic Product which SHOULD measure a country’s production. Intelectual would be incorporated into that production.

          For example:
          In 1790 Farmers made up about 90% of labor force
          in 1830 – it took about 250-300 labor-hours to produce 100 bushels (5 acres) of wheat with walking plow, brush harrow, hand broadcast of seed, sickle, and flail.
          In 1840 Farmers made up 69% of labor force

          1834 – McCormick reaper patented
          1834 – John Lane began to manufacture plows faced with steel saw blades
          1837 – John Deere and Leonard Andrus began manufacturing steel plows
          1837 – Practical threshing machine patented
          1841 – Practical grain drill patented
          1842 – First grain elevator, Buffalo, NY
          1844 – Practical mowing machine patented
          1847 – Irrigation begun in Utah
          1849 – Mixed chemical fertilizers sold commercially
          http://inventors.about.com/library/inventors/blfarm1.htm

          By 1850 only 75-90 labor-hours were required to produce 100 bushels of corn (2-1/2 acres) with walking plow, harrow, and hand planting. (Farmers made up 64% of labor force)

          And by 1890 only 40-50 labor-hours were required to produce 100 bushels (5 acres) of wheat with gang plow, seeder, harrow, binder, thresher, wagons, and horses. (Farmers made up 58% of labor force)
          In 1930 – One farmer supplied 9.8 persons in the United States and abroad and by 1970 – One farmer was suppling 75.8 people with food in the United States and abroad
          >>>>>>>>>>>>

          This increase in food production was accomplished by inventors and engineers and that increase in food production freed up more people to produce or invent.

          HOWEVER you can not count that production twice.

          If I spend years coming up with the Incredible Rubegoldberg Perpetual Motion Machine in my Laboratory and GE pays me a yearly salary for ten years to do so, but my beautiful invention never sees light of day except as a one off piece of scrap that costs money to dispose of, did I add to the Gross National Product? Did I add to the wealth of the nation?

        • _Jim says:

          re: emsnews May 31, 2014 at 1:03 am
          So, anything that is intellectual is meaningless?

          You REALLY are an idiot.

        • Ernest Bush says:

          Intellectual and scientific discussion is great, but unless someone publishes it in a book it doesn’t add a thing to the economy. Physical books are wealth, economically speaking. Someone translating those ideas into manufacturing adds jobs, and thus wealth, in the products that are bought. Think Apple computers. What was true in 1930, economically speaking, is true today. There is simply a type of wealth not counted by economists and it is far from meaningless.

  8. The weak economy was caused by cold weather which was caused by global warming which was caused by CO2 emissions which was caused by economic production which we no longer have to worry about because of our weak economy which was caused by…

  9. policycritic says:

    What do you expect? First he appoints Timothy Geithner as secretary of the Treasury, then he appoints a lawyer, Jacob Lew, the guy who created the Balanced Budget Act of 1997, which started the downward spiral of the private sector.Look at 1997 in this chart, The last time the government was in surplus–look at Clinton’s surplus in this chart–was 1927-1930, according to Bloomberg. Sound familiar?
    http://postimg.org//image/d5lzdeufz

    • Gail Combs says:

      Clinton’s “Surplus” wasn’t nothing more than creative accounting and propaganda.

      It never happened. There was never a surplus and the facts support that position. In fact, far from a $360 billion reduction in the national debt in FY1998-FY2000, there was an increase of $281 billion.

      Verifying this is as simple as accessing the U.S. Treasury
      Here’s the national debt at the end of each year of Clinton Budgets:
      Fiscal
      Year Year
      Ending National Debt Deficit
      FY1993 09/30/1993 $4.411488 trillion
      FY1994 09/30/1994 $4.692749 trillion $281.26 billion
      FY1995 09/29/1995 $4.973982 trillion $281.23 billion
      FY1996 09/30/1996 $5.224810 trillion $250.83 billion
      FY1997 09/30/1997 $5.413146 trillion $188.34 billion
      FY1998 09/30/1998 $5.526193 trillion $113.05 billion
      FY1999 09/30/1999 $5.656270 trillion $130.08 billion
      FY2000 09/29/2000 $5.674178 trillion $17.91 billion
      FY2001 09/28/2001 $5.807463 trillion $133.29 billion

      As can clearly be seen, in no year did the national debt go down, nor did Clinton leave President Bush with a surplus. Clinton’s “Surplus” was nothing more than Washington doublespeak and political smoke and mirrors.

      The national debt is made up of public debt and intragovernmental holdings. The public debt is debt held by the public, normally including things such as treasury bills, savings bonds, and other instruments the public can purchase from the government. Intragovernmental holdings, on the other hand, is when the government borrows money from itself–mostly borrowing money from social security.

      Looking at the makeup of the national debt and the claimed surpluses for the last 4 Clinton fiscal years, we have the following table:

      Fiscal
      Year End – Date Claimed – Surplus Public Debt – Intra-gov Holdings – Total National Debt
      FY1997 09/30/1997 $3.789667T $1.623478T $5.413146T
      FY1998 09/30/1998 $69.2B $3.733864T $55.8B $1.792328T $168.9B $5.526193T $113B
      FY1999 09/30/1999 $122.7B $3.636104T $97.8B $2.020166T $227.8B $5.656270T $130.1B
      FY2000 09/29/2000 $230.0B $3.405303T $230.8B $2.268874T $248.7B $5.674178T $17.9B
      FY2001 09/28/2001 $3.339310T $66.0B $2.468153T $199.3B $5.807463T $133.3B

      Notice that while the public debt went down in each of those four years, the intragovernmental holdings went up each year by a far greater amount–and, in turn, the total national debt (which is public debt + intragovernmental holdings) went up. Therein lies the discrepancy.

      “Over the past 25 years, the government has gotten used to the fact that Social Security is providing free money to make the rest of the deficit look smaller,” said Andrew Biggs, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.

      Shamelessly plagiarized from HERE. (I condensed and ruthlessly chopped it.)

  10. philjourdan says:

    Let’s look at this analytically. They claim the cold depressed GDP by 1.4%. So even if we did not have any cold winters, that would have been only a .4% increase. Yet the adjustments made to GDP 2 years ago added 3% to the GDP out of thin air (double counting Accounts Receivable and R&D). So if they had not monkeyed with the GDP, it STILL would have been a 2.6% decrease!

    We have been in a recession for a year now.

    • Gail Combs says:

      A YEAR? More like twenty. GRAPH: Payroll Employment – Private look at the gray curve = As % of all non-farm jobs (Government jobs went up while real jobs dropped.)

      Changes from 2007 to 2011 by sector: graph

      However the best way of looking at it is the GDP (despite the game playing) Graph: Anual growth

      and even more important the Trade Deficit. (That is what really counts. and the USA is in deep doodoo.)
      Several charts HERE

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