USHCN 2.5 – Estimated Data Is Warming Data – Arizona

sunshine hours

An addendum to yesterdays post about “Estimated” data.

These are the 9 months in Arizona with the biggest change due to Estimated data. I’ll focus on December (the top graph). Remember, this is the Final data after all the other adjustments.

About 15% of the data is Estimated from neighboring stations.

The trend of REAL data is negative-.04C/decade.

Then they add in about 15% Estimated data with a trend of  +0.43C/decade.

The net result is a new trend of +0.02C/decade.

Presto. Magic. A downward trend is now an upward trend. (Click on graph for larger)

AZ USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1895) Dec

AZ USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1895) Feb

AZ USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1895) Jan

AZ USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1895) Mar

AZ USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1895) May

AZ USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1895) Jul

AZ USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1895) Nov

AZ USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1895) Oct

AZ USCHCN Final v2.5.0.20140509 (from 1895) Apr

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About stevengoddard

Just having fun
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13 Responses to USHCN 2.5 – Estimated Data Is Warming Data – Arizona

  1. Sundance says:

    It’s NCDC’s version of Kirk fixing the Kobayashi Maru for needed outcomes..

  2. Robertv says:

    Jeff Holmstead, former assistant administrator at the EPA for Air and Radiation, on why the latest EPA regulations on coal-fired power plants are massively misguided

    http://schiffradio.com/pg/jsp/charts/audioMaster.jsp;jsessionid=2165BABAB53470AA6553BF18DF7E13FF?dispid=301&pid=65564&f=NjU1NjQtdHJ1ZS0wNi8wNS8yMDE0

  3. emsnews says:

    Nothing is more irritating than not using proper instrumentation data to chart changes over time!

    If a cook did this in a kitchen, everything would either burn or not cook enough!

  4. Mike D says:

    Hey, the cat’s out of the bag. Hope this starts getting into the wild. Though I expect that they’ll just stop indicating any estimated data because it’s not about integrity with the scammers.

  5. Pete says:

    Wallowing in the raw data. Aint no substitute. Good work. Thanks.

  6. tom0mason says:

    I see a clear upward trend in manufactured temperatures. Of course their methods of estimation are fully verified and validated – aren’t they?

  7. Gail Combs says:

    Take Screen shots or whatever before all the evidence vanishes and we are called crazy.

  8. Chad Bergen says:

    Your site is so much more scientifically respectable and responsible than that global warmer Anthony Watts’. Everything I see printed there I have to remember has been filtered for ” Magic Gas Believer Vision” compatibility.

  9. gregole says:

    Looking at the topmost chart it is easy just by eye to see the E values produce cooling during 1920 through 1940 which n turn does a lot to produce the current upward temperature trend.

    Cool the past. Warm the present.

    Not much is needed to turn a non-trend or a very slightly cooling trend into a warming trend; then claim it’s “worse than we thought” and cobble together some nonsense relating it to drought/flood/fire/storms, you name it.

  10. Send Al to the Pole says:

    I think the bottom line is that it isn’t coincidental, or accidental.

  11. Gail Combs says:

    “About 15% of the data is Estimated from neighboring stations.”

    Lets look at that.
    My nearest weather station shows 68 °F and the nearest neighboring station shows 64 °F (north) and 72 °F (south) (Piedmont)
    Another set of “nearby stations” in North Carolina (mountains) shows:
    65.8 °F
    59.3 °F
    56.8 °F

    And a last set (Coastal Plain)
    70.4 °F
    71.8 °F
    67.5 °F
    75.2 °F
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    If you want to “Infill” with estimated data then fine but don’t go showing the result of that mangled data to a hundredth of a degree when you are lucky to get a real error of less than a degree.

    Remember the “offset” from one station to another does not stay the same day to day or even minute to minute. All it takes is a small thunderstorm to cause a major change in readings and I have seen it raining on the other side of the road and my farm never get any rain

  12. B.C. says:

    If NASA had used this kind of data manipulation “Scientific Guesstimation” during the Apollo 13 mission, the crew would be wandering through the Oort Cloud right about now.

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