It may not be obvious to everyone yet, but this morning’s TOBS discovery is huge.
I need to run now, but here is a quick summary of things I can prove so far about the US temperature record.
- Until 1999 NASA said the US was on a long term cooling trend
- Until 1989 NOAA said there was no long term warming in the US
- Sometime after 2000, NOAA made a large downwards shift in the absolute baseline temperature. This is probably why Nick and Zeke keep insisting on the use of anomalies, as it hides the shift.
- Temperatures are being adjusted an average of about 1.5F relative to the 1930s
- The raw data does not support the validity of a TOBS adjustment
- NOAA is doing something in their conversion from daily data to monthly data to create a bias which selectively cools the past – which in turn creates the appearance that TOBS is valid.
- Since 1990, almost all warming is due to infilling of non-existent temperature data.
And to top it all off, the UHI adjustment is much too small. The US is on a long term cooling trend for over 90 years, and used to be hotter. NCDC US temperature graphs do not even remotely resemble the actual US climate, and actually reverse the trend.
I will write this up in more detail later.