Shock News : Breathtakingly Ignorant Deranged Blogger Batting 1,000 This Summer

On July 6, I made this forecast

ScreenHunter_1299 Jul. 25 07.49 Twitter / SteveSGoddard: I had a vision (a prophecy …

On July 25, I made this forecast

ScreenHunter_1426 Jul. 30 05.32July 25, 2014

So how did my forecasts turn out? Everything I forecast happened exactly as I predicted.

ScreenHunter_1427 Jul. 30 05.37COI | Centre for Ocean and Ice | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

I also have been forecasting for the past three years that the amount of multi-year ice in the Arctic will increase, during a time when Arctic experts were predicting an ice-free Arctic

Why I Expect MYI To Increase Over Last September | Real Science

The difference between my approach and that of Arctic experts, is that I use the scientific  method. They rely on superstition about a harmless trace gas. Real Science always beats superstition.


About stevengoddard

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61 Responses to Shock News : Breathtakingly Ignorant Deranged Blogger Batting 1,000 This Summer

  1. Jim Hunt says:

    Thanks for the heads up Steve/Tony. I see you’ve moved the goalposts yet again!

    On July 27th I stated that “CT Area is still falling fast, and will post another decline of around 150 thousand square kilometers when they eventually get around to updating it.”

    It actually came in at -157 k:

    Q.E.D. ?

  2. philjourdan says:

    The pattern is not unprecedented. I noted a similar pattern in 2 of the last 4 years. Guess Jim just does not like History.

  3. Stephen Richards says:

    Jim, You know damn well tha 150jk at this time of the season is not a lot. We are at peak seasonal melt.

    There is a saying. Why open your mouth and prove what everyone already knows that you are a not so honest idiot.

    • I was forecasting extent, not area. Jim is both dishonest and clueless – trying to change the subject.

      • Jim Hunt says:

        I am neither dishonest or clueless. Do you recall what you said not so very long ago about “Science works through research and debate – not censorship, propaganda, faith, or intimidation.”?

        Thanks for your comment over at The Great White Con. Perhaps we might continue “the debate” in a more conducive atmosphere over there?

        Failing that it is surely self evident that you were “forecasting extent” whereas I was “predicting area”, which is one of my many points!

        • Ice extent is doing exactly what I predicted extent would do. You are conflating extent and area, and being incredibly smug and nasty in the process. Typical clueless progressive.

        • DedaEda says:

          Gee, Jim I agree with you wholeheartedly on your point: ““Science works through research and debate…”. It’s not the consensus then, eh? Wouldn’t the world be a great place if others of your ilk would behave according to this principle. Unfortunately world is not that great…

    • Jim Hunt says:

      I am well aware that the sea ice in the Arctic is in the midst of the 2014 summer “melting season”.

      Please refrain from further gratuitous “intimidation”.


  4. emsnews says:

    If this winter is even colder than the last one I suspect any debates about ice in the Arctic will be beyond silly since we may be entering another Little Ice Age cycle.

  5. Jim Hunt says:

    Re: Shazaam says: July 30, 2014 at 1:53 pm

    I am not “trolling for traffic”, and evidently you have no idea what you are missing!

    • Shazaam says:

      Your actions say otherwise. Your pattern hasn’t changed from last year.

      Thus, I choose to boycott your site.

      As I said, others may do as they wish.

      • Jim Hunt says:

        It looks like Caleb is “trolling for traffic” (July 30, 2014 at 3:54 pm)? In what way are his actions any different to mine?

        • He’s got an IQ above 36?

        • Shazaam says:

          It’s a subtle difference. Perhaps it may be a bit to subtle for you to discern. However I shall make an earnest effort to describe that difference for your education if for no other reason.

          Caleb apparently makes an effort to be informative and somewhat concise. He expresses his opinions and makes no demands. The invitation is low-key and presented in a polite take it or leave it fashion.

          Now, in contrast, we have your recent efforts and the pattern of “Snow White” last year. If I had to come up with a name for your pattern I would dub your efforts as the “Seagull method of trolling for traffic”. Essentially you fly in, whilst squawking loudly (well, actually nitpicking incessantly over trivialities, yet I ask that you allow me some poetic license here) and then proceed to crap all over the place and plant your flag (link to your site) and then disappear for a time. At some irregular interval you repeat the process.

          Thus, you are, in my humble opinion, trolling for traffic….

          If I can be of any assistance in clarifying my explanation, I am willing to try. Yet I fear this may be as good as it gets.

        • Not sure, Shazaam, if you got your license approved but I was chuckling for a while.

        • geran says:

          Well said, Shazaam.


        • philjourdan says:

          Wah! Mommy he is doing it too! Wah!

          Alarmists are such juveniles.

    • philjourdan says:

      You are and we do.

  6. DedaEda says:

    This debate is more about saving a face than a few miles of ice. Basic fact is, there will not be Northwest Passage this year! Gaia just does not cooperate with computer models.

  7. Caleb says:

    I think it was a very good forecast. Is it so hard to give credit where credit is due?

    A very interesting situation is foreseen by Canadian “JEM” model, with a storm sitting atop the Pole for much of next week. As that situation sets up ice could get shifted about, and lead to ups and downs in the “extent” graphs. I don’t dare a forecast, myself.

    The temperature has dipped to minus four at the O-bouy 10 camera. Heck of a way to run a thaw, if you ask me. That camera is fairly far south, at latitude 77 north of Alaska. Very nice picture of midnight sun from that shivering camera at the bottom of my blog at

  8. Jim Hunt says:

    re: Shazaam says: July 30, 2014 at 10:29 pm

    Here’s a somewhat long winded explanation of why my alter ego and I periodically “disappear for a time”:

    Please feel free to take it or leave it. If I can be of any assistance in clarifying my explanation, I am willing to try.

    • geran says:

      Jim, okay, if you are not really a worthless troll, feel free to offer up your great science as to why the planet is about to explode, unless we pay more taxes.

      We are waiting….

    • Shazaam says:

      Now that is exactly what I referred to as your pattern of a “seagull squawking” response.

      Your fastened your beak onto a small trivial bit of my post above and now you will proceed to work that trivial little part of the post for all it’s worth.

      I really could care less why you appear or don’t appear at odd and irregular intervals. My haunting Toto’s site is also somewhat irregular with the odd long break hear and there. That was not in any way a key part of my attempt to explain the differences…

      I’m afraid my poor attempt at an explanation of the oh-so-subtle differences between your post patterns and those of another specific poster has failed to penetrate. I do apologize, sometimes polite explanations fail ever-so-miserably.

    • philjourdan says:

      More trolling for hits on your website.

      If you have no other source for it, then it is not worth reading.

  9. Jim Hunt says:

    Whoops! On rereading this thread in the cold light of dawn (UTC) I discover I need to issue a correction.

    On July 30, 2014 at 2:27 pm I stated that “My prediction was numeric, in the opposite direction to yours”, referring to events on July 27th. I now see that Tony went (somewhat hesitantly!) short Arctic sea ice extent on July 25th.

    As you can no doubt see from my thumbnail I am what Caleb might refer to as something of “a fossil” and my vision is no longer what it once was. On my first scan of the article above I read “July 28th” instead of “July 25th”. However I feel I should point out that in general I keep track of Tony’s musings over on Twitter, where he had this to say on July 28/29th:

    Arctic sea ice extent was not “highest in a decade” then, which my ageing brain was and is all too well aware of.

    • Shazaam says:

      Ah yes, the seagull response to misreading a time stamp.

      I suppose you may attempt to check your assumptions a bit more often in the future.

      In the Trolljitsu scale, you are barely grey-belt.

  10. Jim Hunt says:

    Re: philjourdan says: July 31, 2014 at 1:13 pm

    What’s the CT area reading at the moment Phil? I’ll consult my crystal ball if you ask nicely!

    • Jim Hunt says:

      It’s not much fun around here Phil. Tony doesn’t want to play “spot the difference” with me, and you don’t fancy a spot of Arctic fortune telling?

      CT area is showing 5,188,184 at the moment. My crystal ball is a trifle misty at the moment, but I reckon that the area number will turn on the proverbial dime and there’ll be a decline of around 180 k over the next two days. Unless I’ve misread things once again of course!

      • philjourdan says:

        You are welcome to fortune tell all you want. I saw Steven’s forecast, and your counter forecast. Time will tell which one of you is correct. For now, Steven has the upper hand as his was published, and yours was not (or hidden way on some obscure blog that no one reads). In another 6 weeks we will know who got it right.

        Stop with the pity party. Grow up.

        • Jim Hunt says:

          Steve/Tony has admonished me elsewhere, so at the risk of repeating myself here’s an update on my most recent forecast.

          Earlier today CT Area came in at 44,288 square kilometers below yesterday. The “turn on the proverbial dime” has come to pass, and there is only another 135,712 to go!

    • philjourdan says:

      Um, Snowy, want to move the goal posts again? If you want to, we can discuss the acreage of corn in the grand Bahamas?

      Did you see the quoted part? Here, let me help you by repeating it:

      Everyone here characterises me as “breathtakingly ignorant and deranged”.

      And that has to do with CT how? Seems that is more like a whine. Wah! Everyone is picking on me! Wah! Nobody is being fair! Wah! I want my mommy.

      If you point to a specific comment, at least have the decency to discuss the contents of the comment! Wah!

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